[meteorite-list] OT: Listening To Fermi

From: GERALD FLAHERTY <GRF2_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2010 09:23:33 -0400
Message-ID: <34F6FD08-0163-4917-8F9F-615E42A6BDDE_at_COMCAST.NET>

I think therefore they are [?]
On Sep 17, 2010, at 5:35 AM, Mark Ford wrote:

>
> Point is we can INFER there is a PROBABLILITY of OTHER life, but we
> cannot say there is. There is a big difference. many people 'believe' in
> all sorts of things, this doesn't make it true.
>
> That said, however much we think science is black and white, science is
> only really a glorified democracy, evidence only is evidence if enough
> people 'believe' it. But it's all we've got, and it sort of works, as
> soon as we say there's got to be aliens out there 'because we are here',
> then all logic breaks down and we will be in a right mess.
>
> We haven't seen aliens, we cannot infer their presence from ANY
> observation - therefore at present we are alone in the universe.
>
> Remember 'Statistically' we shouldn't be here at all! So scientifically
> speaking Statistics is disproven as a method!
>
> Mark
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: meteorite-list-bounces at meteoritecentral.com
> [mailto:meteorite-list-bounces at meteoritecentral.com] On Behalf Of
> Meteorites USA
> Sent: 17 September 2010 05:56
> To: meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com
> Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] OT: Listening To Fermi
>
> Hi Phil, I agree completely with your sentiment, and respect your
> belief. However I sincerely disagree that your conclusion that
> intelligent extra terrestrial life does NOT exist is based on evidenced
> fact. There is only a lack of evidence, and the best argument to the
> contrary is us. Humans are the biggest single evidence in this universe
> that the development of intelligent life forms is possible. (though the
> intelligent part is arguable)
>
> I know you believe we're the only intelligent lifeform, and I know you
> think it's based on evidence, but it's actually lack of evidence to the
> contrary that you are basing your belief on.
>
> You're merely repeating Fermi's "Where are they?" question. Saying show
> me... I've already given an analogy that very simply shows Fermi's
> Paradox is not a paradox at all because we haven't the information to
> quantify the question to begin with.
>
> Lack of evidence is not evidence.
>
> You'll be surprised to know, I don't "believe" in extraterrestrials.
> However I can conclude they "most probably" exist because we are "here",
>
> and the chances of them not being "there" (wherever there is) are so
> minute it's statistically impossible considering the vastness and the
> age of the universe.
>
> We could also phrase this as "when" they were. Or how we "will" be in
> 1000 years, or 10,000 years. At the rate of technological advancement
> (if we don't destroy ourselves first) where will we be in 1000 years?
> That is curiously and seriously what I would like to know!
>
> Even so, one can still safely use statistics and numbers to figure the
> probability. No, I'm not hanging my alien hat on the Drake equation. I
> wouldn't know how to read it any more than I could read War & Peace in
> one sitting. I'm saying One must take into account ALL the variables
> possible to form a conclusion. Still, probability won't make it so. We
> may never know, or we might find ET tomorrow.
>
> I'll agree with Richard in that I believe that the universe is teaming
> with life. Intelligent life however is probably extremely rare.
>
> But even that, like time itself is probably relative.
>
> Regards,
> Eric
>
>
>
> On 9/16/2010 9:19 PM, JoshuaTreeMuseum wrote:
>> Hi Richard;
>> That's an excellent argument for cancelling the silly SETI project.
>> The key word in your argument is "believe". You believe in the
>> existence of exo-life without any supporting evidence, I don't. So we
>> can agree to disagree.
>>
>> If life never existed on Mars, I can't see it existing anywhere else.
>> But, my beliefs are evidence based, I'll change them in a minute if
>> someone will just show me the money.
>>
>> -----------------------------------
>>
>> Phil Whitmer
>>
>>
>>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> -
>> Actually Phil, I'd disagree with that statement, even though I believe
>
>> that the universe is filled to the brim with life, I think that
>> intelligent life is exceedingly rare.
>>
>> Personally I think that SETI is never going to find a signal, not
>> because there is no life out there, but that the circumstances
>> required to find a signal is exceedingly small. The analogy put forth
>> by others in this thread of a child looking out a window for
>> 32/1000ths of a second is a good one.
>>
>> Use ourselves as an example. Radio technology on earth is barely a
>> century old and we are already rapidly moving away from high powered
>> transmitters to low powered devices for communications. Our most
>> efficient long distance communications are already moving via fiber
>> optics, so require no radio transmissions whatsoever.
>>
>> Ask yourself what are/or were the most powerful transmitters used?
>> The answer is Early Warning defense radar systems. In fact at those
>> frequencies Earth was brighter than the Sun. As the Cold War wound
>> down, and the technology improved, lower power transmitters could do
>> the same job. For about 40 years, Earth shined exceedingly brightly in
>
>> microwaves, with a peak radiance about 1/3 through that period. So you
>
>> can imagine a shell of microwaves 40 light years in thickness
>> traveling out from our solar system, expanding at the speed of light.
>> (I'm sure I'll be corrected here, but that's OK. I welcome it.)
>>
>> Say a intelligent civilization, only a century behind us in technology
>
>> (Almost statistically impossible) 50 light years away from us will
>> develop the technology to detect radio waves of that frequency. Our
>> microwaves from the early warning systems have been reaching them for
>> more than a decade already, but they won't develop the technology to
>> detect this radiation for another 30 years or so.
>>
>> In other words, just as they gain the ability to detect our unintended
>
>> signal to them just as it has completely passed them by. Even if they
>> point their radio telescope directly at earth, they wouldn't hear us
>> as our signal drops again below the background noise.
>>
>> And so it goes planet after planet as the signal extends out into
>> space in an ever expanding shell, growing ever weaker. If we continue
>> our trend to become more radio silent in other frequencies too, our
>> civilization could become radio dark again as far as the universe is
>> concerned in the next hundred years or so.
>>
>> Expand this problem by a more realistic estimate that civilizations
>> become technologically capable thousands or millions of years apart,
>> not mere decades apart...
>>
>> Now reverse the situation. For SETI to work you have to be listening
>> at the precise moment the signals are passing our region of space.
>> Miss it by a century, a decade, a year, a day, and its too late. The
>> signal is no longer detectable. It may literally take many millenia
>> before the right combination of circumstances allow us to detect
>> another civilization through just their radio communications, intended
>
>> or otherwise.
>>
>> Ironically, I think that SETI is an experiment that should not be
>> abandoned, because you'll never know if there is a detectable signal
>> if you don't look. I just think it will never yield a positive result.
>
>> However, I do believe that the canceled Terrestrial Planet Finder
>> mission had a much better chance to find habitable, and planets that
>> have abundant life.
>>
>>
>>
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Received on Fri 17 Sep 2010 09:23:33 AM PDT