[meteorite-list] Russia mega meteor and asteroid 2012DA14 related, yes I think so...

From: Mike Hankey <mike.hankey_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Sat, 16 Feb 2013 13:38:45 -0500
Message-ID: <CAJak_qWAfhVg72rT8z8SaJnGxmmjtO+PqZe1QeN1CA4UE0qYQw_at_mail.gmail.com>

Esko posted these yesterday on meteor obs. This is estimated. The
wired article said it used SETI results.

Using mainly the video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZxXYscmgRg
and the weather satellite image, with no real good calibrations, I get a
rough solar system orbit ( the last stage by means of Marco Langbroek
Excel sheet).


( Entry with velocity 17 km/s ( 17.3) from about az. 97 with the slope
of 18 deg. Corresponding (luminous) start heigth (assumed, quite heigh
for the velocity, but considers very big size) 100 km and the end 7+ km.)
a=1.66
e=0.52
q=0.80 AU
aphelion at 2.53 AU
node=326.43 ( J2000.0 )
arg peri=116.0
i=4.05
43.6 days after perihelion
The geocentric radiant is 338, +2
This is only of very general quality and given with (a lot) too many
decimals.

The orbit does not much resemble the 2009 Feb, 16 innish fireball that I
told of yesterday.

According to that solution, the landing site would be not much more than
30 km away from that video recording site. But I do not know the
coordinates of this, except very roughly.
There quite probably are a lot of small fragments fallen down much
earlier along the track, (with possibly a number of bigger ones,
besides the main piece).

Esko




On Sat, Feb 16, 2013 at 1:35 PM, Bjorn Sorheim <astrogeo at online.no> wrote:
>
> Where are these elements posted??
> It's impossible that they could be as different as you state here.
> My mailbox got full yesterday, so if they have been posted on this list
> while I could not receive any new messages, I must apologize.
> But if not, post the elements or supply a link.
> It is interesting to note that NASA have not issued any stronger comment
> than they did yesterday.
> I am also surprised that good elements, as your anwer would indicate,
> could be computed the same day they first occured. Not a thing of earlier
> days
> such an achievement.
>
> The professor of astrophysics and celestial mechanics is a highly competent
> guy,
> therefore NASA used him.
>
> Bj?rn S?rheim
>
>
>
>>I'm talking about two different trajectories. Different inclinations,
>>different semimajor axes, (very) different eccentricities, (very)
>>different geocentric velocities. There is no plausible mechanism for
>>ending up with two pieces of the same body in such radically different
>>orbits- it would require first separating them, and then subjecting each
>>to a different history of three-body interactions.
>>
>>If the "foremost" celestial mechanics expert in your country says the
>>two are similar, he is not competent. I don't notice him speaking out.
>>
>>Chris
>>
>>*******************************
>>Chris L Peterson
>>Cloudbait Observatory
>>
>>
>>On 2/15/2013 11:35 PM, Bjorn Sorheim wrote:
>>>
>>> Two completely different trajectories??
>>> What the heck are you talking about?
>>> They are quite similar. It would not at this point say they are
>>> identical.
>>> In WHAT way are they _completely different_, elaborate please.
>>> And don't be so d** arrogant, for christ sake.
>>> I could mention that the foremost celest mechanican in my country says
>>> they
>>> are strangly similar, and he has been working for NASA and the Voyagers,
>>> and he has
>>> an asteroid named after him.
>>>
>>> Bj?rn S?rheim
>
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Received on Sat 16 Feb 2013 01:38:45 PM PST