[meteorite-list] OT: Death fears vs. probability My un-expertopinion

From: Frank Prochaska <fprochaska_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Sat Sep 3 14:24:19 2005
Message-ID: <0IM9003BQ72DQ6U0_at_vms046.mailsrvcs.net>

Hello List,

        I absolutely agree that many statistics are misused, whether in the
context of this latest disaster or in general. One of my favorite books
from college is a little one called "How to Lie with Statistics" which is in
its umpteenth printing.
        For example, the national incident rate of death in sky diving
accidents is just as inapplicable to my personal risk of death skydiving as
the national incident rate of death from breast cancer, because I have no
desire whatsoever to jump out of a perfectly good airplane.
        However, some of the posts have in fact made perfectly legitimate
use of these statistics relative to the disaster on the Gulf Coast. The
post listing the death rates from lightning strikes, etc., was made in
response to folks questioning why anyone would live down in that area in the
first place. I've heard the same talk around town here where I live. I
heard one of my friends say that she would never live down in that area
because of hurricanes, and before I could respond, another friend piped up
and stated 'yeah, we'll just sit up here and wait for the next big
earthquake.' (I live on the Puget Sound near Seattle.) Large hurricanes
hitting a densely populated metropolis resulting in these kinds of death
tolls are (thankfully) very rare, just as large earthquakes hitting densely
populated metropolises (sp?) with large death tolls are very rare. If it
happened that a large earthquake had hit here last week with similar
devastation instead, folks in New Orleans would be down there now saying,
'why would anyone want to live in an area like that, I'd never live up
there.'
        I live in a city of about 100,000 people, and from where I live, I
don't think I can go more than about 5 miles in any one direction without
having to go over a bridge of one sort or another. Transportation issues
including retrofitting bridges to resist earthquake damage have been ongoing
issues for years, voters recently repealed by initiative the funding to
address some of these issue, and the state legislature finally acted
recently only to have funding put on hold again while we wait for yet
another initiative to repeal the funding go to a vote of the people again.
If (when) a very large earthquake hits this area, and the bridges collapse,
no one can get in or out, gas lines have broken and are burning, there is no
power, food and water is running out, etc., I can see the same comments
being made in other parts of the country about why didn't they pay to
retrofit the bridges and buildings just like why didn't they pay to maintain
the levees in Louisiana. About the only difference would be the streets in
my town wouldn't be flooded and have alligators patrolling them.
        The list of national statistics are relevant to this discussion
because it (I believe) points out that no matter where you live, there are
risks that can shorten your life expectancy, just as there are activities
that can shorten your life expectancy. The impact of very large earthquakes
doesn't mean much to residents of Louisiana, any more than the impact of
large hurricanes directly affects me up here. But to imply that any given
person would be statistically "safer" living here for instance as opposed to
down there because we don't have hurricanes is bogus, and those national
statistics can illustrate why it's bogus.



Frank Prochaska





-----Original Message-----
From: meteorite-list-bounces_at_meteoritecentral.com
[mailto:meteorite-list-bounces_at_meteoritecentral.com] On Behalf Of
MexicoDoug_at_aol.com
Sent: Saturday, September 03, 2005 8:48 AM
To: mam602_at_cox.net; ROBERT.D.MATSON@saic.com; kelly@bhil.com;
meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com
Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] OT: Death fears vs. probability My
un-expertopinion

Rob and Sterling discussed:
>When 2000 people die from a hurricane-caused flood, that's news.
>But 42,000+ people dying in automobile accidents ANNUALLY in
>the U.S. alone? No one cares.

No one cares? If a drunk driver was the cause they will find out quickly
that someone cares. And there is reason for that:

I totally disagree with this spin from my most respected friends regarding
these good points. If you live in a hurricane prone area the USA
statistics
mean nothing and proactivity everything(why not use 6.x billionin the world
it
is just as meaningless), if you have filthy sanitation USA death from
microbes' statistics mean nothing, if you like surfboarding in shark
infested
waters (where great waves are), they mean nothing, if you live in tornado
alley,
etc. statistics, and if you skydive frequently, why would USA statistics
mean
anything.

While I agree that society as a whole has a terrible grasp of statistics,
and they appear sometimes just branch of politics, there are two important
thoughts missing from these cold statistical arguments:

One is the the fear of loss of control over one's destiny and
self-determination. If I accept the statical bet to drive with its risks,
I have
determined my destiny, and if I am fatigued but drive anyway, the
statistics are
usless as I find myself drifting in front of opposing trucks or off the
road, and
no one will question that it is my fault if something happens. Statistics
may be interesting for the Federal Bureau of Statistics (Federal BS) in
this
case - but luckily one has not yet become a statistic for the morbidity
bean
counters while one is alive.

The other related objection I have is the thought that people are too
ignorant to guage situations of bonafide danger when they are knowingly in
harm's
way. The "being hit on the head by a meteorite arriving from space" is
basically a cold statistic on Earth, but it has new meaning if you are an
astronaut
floating around in the space station. Living on Miami Beach or N Orleans
is
like during hurricane Season. Or when I am caught in the middle of an
electrical storm on treeless plains with an iron in the pocket and no where
to
hide. Maybe I should raise a lightning rod connected to the iron in my
soaked
backpack and laugh in defiance at God's act quoting Him USA statistics?

When expectations are mismanaged statistics are a very lame and misguided
defense or consolation. This isn't a political comment about poor
leadership
and bureaucracy any more than condoning the barbaric nature of some natives
in
the New Orleans area who clearly (were driven to?) lack the spirit that
"founded America". I hope the current Gulf coast crisis is contained and a

proactive attitude arises from the fading chaos. There is probably a
handful of
people out there right now praying with all there hearts not to become
fodder
for a statistical quotes, thought their chances are 50/50 in their mind -
and
they may be overly optimistic.

The expectation management and self-determination factor need to be
considered. Terrorism is a perfect example. Statistically we can forget
about it.
Tell that to the Meteoritehunter dining in Nakhla Cafe when a boom is
suddenly heard. Oh, only 500 people have meteorites that have rusted. So,
if you
are a resident of the USA, don't worry about having a meteorite rusting -
it
is statistically insignificant that it will happen to you. And especially
don't worry about it if the seller gave you the expectation that it won't
rust.
Those are even fewer cases and statistically not even measurable in the
context of the USA population to 5 sigma...

Saludos, Doug
 
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Received on Sat 03 Sep 2005 02:22:56 PM PDT