[meteorite-list] OT: Death fears vs. probability My un-expert opinion

From: MexicoDoug_at_aol.com <MexicoDoug_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Sat Sep 3 12:48:07 2005
Message-ID: <d6.2cf3bcd5.304b2da6_at_aol.com>

Rob and Sterling discussed:
>When 2000 people die from a hurricane-caused flood, that's news.
>But 42,000+ people dying in automobile accidents ANNUALLY in
>the U.S. alone? No one cares.

No one cares? If a drunk driver was the cause they will find out quickly
that someone cares. And there is reason for that:

I totally disagree with this spin from my most respected friends regarding
these good points. If you live in a hurricane prone area the USA statistics
mean nothing and proactivity everything(why not use 6.x billionin the world it
is just as meaningless), if you have filthy sanitation USA death from
microbes' statistics mean nothing, if you like surfboarding in shark infested
waters (where great waves are), they mean nothing, if you live in tornado alley,
etc. statistics, and if you skydive frequently, why would USA statistics mean
anything.

While I agree that society as a whole has a terrible grasp of statistics,
and they appear sometimes just branch of politics, there are two important
thoughts missing from these cold statistical arguments:

One is the the fear of loss of control over one's destiny and
self-determination. If I accept the statical bet to drive with its risks, I have
determined my destiny, and if I am fatigued but drive anyway, the statistics are
usless as I find myself drifting in front of opposing trucks or off the road, and
no one will question that it is my fault if something happens. Statistics
may be interesting for the Federal Bureau of Statistics (Federal BS) in this
case - but luckily one has not yet become a statistic for the morbidity bean
counters while one is alive.

The other related objection I have is the thought that people are too
ignorant to guage situations of bonafide danger when they are knowingly in harm's
way. The "being hit on the head by a meteorite arriving from space" is
basically a cold statistic on Earth, but it has new meaning if you are an astronaut
floating around in the space station. Living on Miami Beach or N Orleans is
like during hurricane Season. Or when I am caught in the middle of an
electrical storm on treeless plains with an iron in the pocket and no where to
hide. Maybe I should raise a lightning rod connected to the iron in my soaked
backpack and laugh in defiance at God's act quoting Him USA statistics?

When expectations are mismanaged statistics are a very lame and misguided
defense or consolation. This isn't a political comment about poor leadership
and bureaucracy any more than condoning the barbaric nature of some natives in
the New Orleans area who clearly (were driven to?) lack the spirit that
"founded America". I hope the current Gulf coast crisis is contained and a
proactive attitude arises from the fading chaos. There is probably a handful of
people out there right now praying with all there hearts not to become fodder
for a statistical quotes, thought their chances are 50/50 in their mind - and
they may be overly optimistic.

The expectation management and self-determination factor need to be
considered. Terrorism is a perfect example. Statistically we can forget about it.
Tell that to the Meteoritehunter dining in Nakhla Cafe when a boom is
suddenly heard. Oh, only 500 people have meteorites that have rusted. So, if you
are a resident of the USA, don't worry about having a meteorite rusting - it
is statistically insignificant that it will happen to you. And especially
don't worry about it if the seller gave you the expectation that it won't rust.
Those are even fewer cases and statistically not even measurable in the
context of the USA population to 5 sigma...

Saludos, Doug
 
Received on Sat 03 Sep 2005 12:47:34 PM PDT