[meteorite-list] Nebraska Man Says He Was Nearly Hit By Meteorite

From: Jerry A. Wallace <jwal2000_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Fri Jul 1 03:45:07 2005
Message-ID: <42C4F470.708_at_swbell.net>

Hi Sterling and List,

Sterling cited:

>Park Forest, M'Bale, Holbrook, Benld, Gao and Noblesville.


Lets not forget New Orleans...or the one that almost landed in my backyard-
Monahans.

Newspaper reports (thanks to Mark Bostick) noted that...well- here are the
actual excerpts:

    "A four-inch piece of rock, believed to be a meteorite, landed about
30 yards
from a group of youngsters playing basketball on the north side of
Monahans, while
a second, slightly larger rock, was found by a Ward County Sheriff's
Deputy at a
nearby site this morning."

Dang it. Missed that magic 65' circle by 25'.

Another quote from the same newspaper report:

"One of the youths, ranging in age from 8 to 16, said the rock "glowed
red hot,"
when it first landed, according to the Monahans News."

Well, putting that particular kid's wide age range aside (could have
been a wild juvenile
hormone fluctuation, or even the result of being in close proximity and
getting a massive
dose of gamma rays from the newly fallen meteorite)- one wonders whether
one of our
brilliant 'hick' reporters might not have excitedly asked the question,
"Was the rock glowing
red hot when you first saw it?" OBJECTION! LEADING THE WITNESS!
It happens.

Lest they be not forgotten.

Jerry

PS...Great math, Sterling. Don't understand it all, but it's good mental
exercise trying to.


Sterling K. Webb wrote:

>Ron Baalke wrote:
>
>
>
>>http://www.theomahachannel.com/news/4672177/detail.html
>>Fairbury Man Says He Was Nearly Hit By Meteorite
>>The chances of this close of an encounter are one in 100 billion, expert
>>said... The object landed about 65 feet from where Kinzie was.
>>
>>
>
>Hi,
>
> This (unnamed) expert needs a basic course in statistics. Assuming one
>defines this approach (65 feet) as a criteria for "close", then the number of
>cases of a fall being within 65 feet of a human being are substantial.
>
> How many people were within 65 feet of the fall of any fragment of PARK
>FOREST? There were reports of much closer approaches in M'BALE. A meteorite
>which hits an occupied car is, of course, closer than 65 feet (and most
>unoccupied cars, too).
>
> Any frag that strikes an occupied house or building less than 65 feet
>square is a case (dozens and dozens of those). "Maw, it's raining rocks!"
>(HOLBROOK) The BENLD car smasher hit only 25 feet from the human occupants of
>the house. Several GAO frags hit people. Don't forget the Alabama lady in the
>town I can't spell and am too lazy to look up..
>
> The NOBLESVILLE (Indiana) stone fell literally at the feet of a young boy,
>within inches! It's a long, long list.
>
> Forget the Nebraska glowing rock whacko.
>
> Integrating for the varying size of the human population over this time
>period, I get odds of about 4,000,000,000 to one per year. Lifetime odds are
>less than 100,000,000 to one! This assumes the individual perceives the fall,
>hence these odds is for observed falls only.
>
> 65 feet is far enough away that the fall of a small fragment, which is
>what most of them are (remember the power law), is easily missed, just like
>the small fragment itself, so the actual rate is much higher.
>
> A 130 foot circle has over 53,000 square feet, a big target. Assuming that
>those humans don't bunch up too much (they do, but they all count as one
>person only in this survey), from low to high fall rate estimates, I gauge 6
>to 15 cases per year, observed or not.
>
> Spread out, people! Wait for the meteorites to fall in your lap (or 130
>foot circle)!
>
>
>Sterling K. Webb
>-------------------------------
>
>
>
Received on Fri 01 Jul 2005 03:44:48 AM PDT