[meteorite-list] Nebraska Man Says He Was Nearly Hit By Meteorite

From: Sterling K. Webb <kelly_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Fri Jul 1 01:03:56 2005
Message-ID: <42C4CE99.52F346BF_at_bhil.com>

Ron Baalke wrote:

> http://www.theomahachannel.com/news/4672177/detail.html
> Fairbury Man Says He Was Nearly Hit By Meteorite
> The chances of this close of an encounter are one in 100 billion, expert
> said... The object landed about 65 feet from where Kinzie was.

Hi,

    This (unnamed) expert needs a basic course in statistics. Assuming one
defines this approach (65 feet) as a criteria for "close", then the number of
cases of a fall being within 65 feet of a human being are substantial.

    How many people were within 65 feet of the fall of any fragment of PARK
FOREST? There were reports of much closer approaches in M'BALE. A meteorite
which hits an occupied car is, of course, closer than 65 feet (and most
unoccupied cars, too).

    Any frag that strikes an occupied house or building less than 65 feet
square is a case (dozens and dozens of those). "Maw, it's raining rocks!"
(HOLBROOK) The BENLD car smasher hit only 25 feet from the human occupants of
the house. Several GAO frags hit people. Don't forget the Alabama lady in the
town I can't spell and am too lazy to look up..

    The NOBLESVILLE (Indiana) stone fell literally at the feet of a young boy,
within inches! It's a long, long list.

    Forget the Nebraska glowing rock whacko.

    Integrating for the varying size of the human population over this time
period, I get odds of about 4,000,000,000 to one per year. Lifetime odds are
less than 100,000,000 to one! This assumes the individual perceives the fall,
hence these odds is for observed falls only.

    65 feet is far enough away that the fall of a small fragment, which is
what most of them are (remember the power law), is easily missed, just like
the small fragment itself, so the actual rate is much higher.

    A 130 foot circle has over 53,000 square feet, a big target. Assuming that
those humans don't bunch up too much (they do, but they all count as one
person only in this survey), from low to high fall rate estimates, I gauge 6
to 15 cases per year, observed or not.

    Spread out, people! Wait for the meteorites to fall in your lap (or 130
foot circle)!


Sterling K. Webb
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Received on Fri 01 Jul 2005 01:03:21 AM PDT