[meteorite-list] Meteorite prices

From: Matson, Robert <ROBERT.D.MATSON_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Thu Apr 22 10:22:43 2004
Message-ID: <AF564D2B9D91D411B9FE00508BF1C86901B4EB18_at_US-Torrance.mail.saic.com>

Hi Sterling and List,

> While there are short term fluctuations from availability and medium
> term fluctuations from how rare a type is (like lunars), there is
> clearly a moderately long term trend over the last three to five
> years of declining meteorite prices.

Absolutely right. A classic case of a free-market economy at work.
Increasing demand, but GREATLY increasing supply. DeBeers has the
power to do the same thing to diamonds, but obviously has no vested
interest in doing so. Prior to NWA, meteorite prices slowly
increased to compensate for a slowly increasing pool of meteorite
collectors. This slow increase in demand was largely due to the
internet -- eBay in particular.

Until supply levels off, or at least stays a step behind demand,
prices will continue to fall. This is especially true for the
"type" collector who is interested in classifications not
find/fall locations.

Now if you collect locations -- especially historic falls -- then
NWA has less power to affect those prices. But some locations
are collected in large part *because* of their type rarity (e.g.
Winona), in which case new hot desert finds of the same type
will dilute the market and the price for that type.

> The interesting question is: how much longer will a general decline
> in meteorite prices continue? Is it a lull? A temporary dip? A
> re-adjustment? A momentary oversupply? A slide? Was there a
> "bubble"? Is this "normal"?

Ask the nomads of northern Africa. It's a huge area, with not that
many people searching it (I don't know what the number of people
is, but if it's less than 10,000 they haven't had the time to
cover even a tiny fraction of the Sahara.) Obviously with retail
and wholesale prices falling, there is a point at which even the
nomads won't bother picking them up, so there is a price
stabilization point. I'd say we're approaching that point, but
we may not be there yet.

We also have to keep in mind that the market for meteorites cannot
be decoupled from the economy in general -- meteorites are a luxury
item, not a necessity. When unemployment is still on the rise and
the economy is sluggish, how do you justify expenditures on non-
essentials?

On a final, humorous (?) note: as much as this group has ridiculed
Michael Casper over the years, if he was really only into meteorites
for the money, you have to take your hat off to him for getting out
when he did. A true market timer. ;-) --Rob
Received on Fri 27 Jun 2003 02:44:05 AM PDT