[meteorite-list] Paper on November's Leonid Meteor peak strengths available

From: Marco Langbroek <marco.langbroek_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Thu Apr 22 10:07:00 2004
Message-ID: <003e01c2720f$21816800$6eda86c2_at_latitude>

Hi list,

For those interested in meteors as well: a month ago my paper with an
attempt to put upper and lower margins to expected peak strengths of the
upcoming two 'storm'-peaks of the Leonid meteor shower in November has
appeared in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. I now
have a pdf (100 Kb) of this paper available. For those who are interested;
send me a note off-list.

We'll see whether it will withstand the test on November 19...

Below the title and abstract.

best wishes,

- Marco

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Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
Volume 334 Issue 2 Page L16-L20 - August 2002
doi: 10.1046/ j.1365-8711.2002.05679.x

Title: Observational evidence for punctuated equilibria in the evolution of
Leonid dust trail widths and implications for meteor rate predictions

Author: Marco Langbroek

Abstract - Meteor activity profiles are reported for the three Leonid storms
of 1999 and 2001 and the substorm of 2000. These yield information on the
evolution of the shape of cross-sections through Leonid dust trails of known
age. Leonid dust trails shed 4 or more revolutions of the parent comet ago,
widen rather sudden, compared to the 3 revolutions old dust trail
encountered in 1999. Trails shed 4 respectively 7 revolutions ago differ
little from each other in width by contrast. It is proposed that the
evolution of Leonid dust trail widths is not gradual with age but progresses
by a process of punctuated equilibria, parallel to a similar pattern in the
orbital evolution of the parent comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle. Trails shed 4 to 7
revolutions ago appear to represent an equilibrium phase. The current series
of encounters with these trails therefore yield a unique opportunity to
investigate the spatial dust density distribution for trails in this age
range. Minimum and maximum rate estimates are given for the upcoming 2002
Leonids. The minimum rates possible amount to zenith hourly rates of 3000
for the 4-revolution trail encounter and 2500 for the 7-revolution trail
encounter. Maximum rates possible, but unlikely to be fulfilled, are 6500
for the 4-revolution trail and 7100 for the 7-revolution trail. We can look
forward with confidence to two new Leonid storms in 2002 with rates at least
equal to and perhaps above those of 2001.
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Received on Sat 12 Oct 2002 12:41:57 PM PDT