[meteorite-list] Will Comet 209P/LINEAR Produce a New Major Meteor Shower in 2014?

From: Ron Baalke <baalke_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Sat, 11 Jan 2014 22:03:38 -0800 (PST)
Message-ID: <201401120603.s0C63ck4017413_at_zagami.jpl.nasa.gov>

http://earthsky.org/space/comet-209p-linear-meteor-shower-storm-may-2014

Will Comet LINEAR produce a new major meteor shower in 2014?
By Deborah Byrd
EarthSky
January 1, 2014
        
The list of major meteor showers hasn't changed much in recent decades,
but it has changed a little. Meteor showers are part of nature, after
all, and the list of major showers shifts and changes slightly, as all
things in nature do, with one shower or another becoming more or less
exciting as the years pass. In 2014, though, an exciting new meteor shower
might come on the scene. This possible shower stems from a comet - Comet
209P/LINEAR - discovered in 2004. Comet 209P/LINEAR passed near the sun
in 2009 and will pass near it again in early May, 2014. On the night of
May 24, 2014 - if the predictions hold true - Earth might be sandblasted
with debris from this comet, resulting in a fine display of meteors, or
shooting stars.

What we know about Comet 209P/LINEAR. An automated observing campaign,
the Lincoln Near-Earth Asteroid Research project (LINEAR), found this
small and somewhat dim comet on February 3, 2004. The International Astronomical
Union gave it the permanent number 209P on December 12, 2008.

P209/LINEAR is a periodic comet, that is, its orbit around the sun is
relatively short so that we see the comet come close to the sun again
and again. Comet 209P/LINEAR's orbit brings it near the sun in just over
5 years. Its next perihelion passage will be May 6, 2014.

The comet itself is not all that exciting. What's exciting is that calculations
of the orbit of P209/LINEAR indicate that - in May 2014 - the comet's
debris trails will pass close to Earth. Debris left behind by the comet
may enter our atmosphere and burn up, creating a new meteor shower.

Will Comet 209P/LINEAR create a meteor storm? In 2012, meteor experts
Esko Lyytinen of Finland and Peter Jenniskens at NASA Ames Research Center
were the first to announce that Earth was due for a May 2014 encounter
with debris from Comet 209P/LINEAR. Other meteor experts quickly confirmed
this prediction and some did use the words "meteor storm." The most recent
calculations, however, indicate we might get a strong shower, but perhaps
not a storm of meteors.

In 2012, Jeremie Vaubaillon of The Institut de Mecanique Celeste et de
Calcul des Ephemerides in France told space.com:

    So far,given the observations, we estimate a ZHR (zenithal hourly
rate) of 100/hr to 400/hr, which is an excellent outburst! But this shower
can become an exceptional one. Indeed, given the current orbit of the
comet, all the trails ejected between 1803 and 1924 do fall in the Earth's
path in May 2014! As a consequence, this shower might as well be a storm.

The more recent, less optimistic calculations come from Quanzhi Ye and
Paul A. Wiegert, both at University of Western Ontario. Their work was
published online in November 2013. In a report on their work at skyandtelescope.com,
John Bochanski wrote that Ye and Wiegert's work suggests a rate of 200
meteors per hour under ideal conditions. Bochanski wrote:

    But Ye and Wiegert warn that, given the current relatively weak dust
production of the comet, rates could be much lower. With the low dust
production, as well as the team's lower estimate of how many debris streams
from the comet's previous passes are hanging around in this region of
space, it's highly unlikely that we're in for a meteor storm (1,000 per
hour) - although the team couldn't quite rule it out.

Will Comet 209P/LINEAR produce a meteor storm, or at least a strong meteor
shower? As with all meteor showers, the only way to know is to go outside
on the night of the predicted peak and see for yourself.

[Graphic]
This hemisphere of Earth will be facing into the stream of debris left
behind by Comet LINEAR on the night of May 24, 2014. Skywatchers in southern
Canada and the continental U.S. will be especially well positioned to
see the meteors. Image via meteor scientist Mikhail Maslov of Russia.
Visit Maslov's website on the new meteor shower here.

[Graphic]
The constellation Camelopardalis is far to the north on the sky's dome,
close to the north celestial pole. It's the radiant point of the possible
meteor shower from Comet 209P/LINEAR. Chart via Wikimedia Commons.

When to watch, and who is best placed on Earth. The peak night of the
shower is predicted for May 24, 2014.

The meteors will radiate from the constellation Camelopardalis (camelopard),
a very obscure northern constellation. Its name is derived from early
Rome, where it was thought of as a composite creature, described as having
characteristics of both a camel and a leopard. Nowadays we call such a
creature a giraffe!

This constellation - radiant point of the May 2014 meteor shower - is
in the northern sky, close to the north celestial pole, making this meteor
shower better for the Northern Hemisphere than the Southern Hemisphere.

As for the predicted time of the shower - skywatchers in southern Canada
and the continental U.S. are said by the experts to be especially well
positioned to see the meteors on the night of May 24, 2014.

Bottom line: On May 24, 2014 - if predictions hold true - Earth might
be sandblasted with debris from Comet 209P/LINEAR, resulting in a fine
display of meteors, or shooting stars. Will it be a meteor storm? Most
recent calculations say no, but it might be a strong-enough shower to
be thrilling!
Received on Sun 12 Jan 2014 01:03:38 AM PST