[meteorite-list] Chelyabinsk alternate scenarios

From: Matson, Robert D. <ROBERT.D.MATSON_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Mon, 25 Mar 2013 19:29:05 -0700
Message-ID: <7C640E28081AEE4B952F008D1E913F170743635D_at_0461-its-exmb04.us.saic.com>

Hi Mike,

I think what Chris is saying is that if you kept the composition,
mass and velocity the same on that asteroid, but had it come in at
a steeper angle, the odds of generating large meteorites on the
ground would have been lower rather than higher. It would have
broken up at a higher altitude, so the shock wave would also
have originated at a higher altitude -- presumably causing less
damage.

I think a shallower trajectory could have been potentially more
damaging (not that there was much room to be shallower than it
was), since it would have allowed gentler deceleration and
deeper atmospheric penetration before breakup.

--Rob

-----Original Message-----
From: meteorite-list-bounces at meteoritecentral.com
[mailto:meteorite-list-bounces at meteoritecentral.com] On Behalf Of
Michael Farmer
Sent: Monday, March 25, 2013 7:11 PM
To: Chris Peterson
Cc: meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com
Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Chelyabinsk at White House today

I was just in Chelyabinsk, a city under emergency for the last month,
-20 and tens of thousands of windows blown out, not only glass, but
entire walls of many buildings caved in, entire buildings collapsed,
and more than 1500 wounded, some still in the hospital, and that was
just a meteorite passing overhead 30 miles high.
Are you telling me that those hundreds of thousands of stones, doubtless
many weighing tons, would not have killed thousands or destroyed
hundreds of buildings if it had directly impacted the city at a high
angle? I think the damage would have been catastrophic and the death
toll in the thousands.


Michael Farmer

Sent from my iPad

On Mar 25, 2013, at 6:08 PM, Chris Peterson <clp at alumni.caltech.edu>
wrote:

> It's extremely doubtful that this body could have done all that much
more damage. It simply wasn't big enough, or strong enough. A little
steeper (or just as likely, as little shallower), a little earlier or
later, probably wouldn't have made much difference.
>
> While I'd love to see a constellation of IR space telescopes looking
for asteroids in this size range, realistically there's probably nothing
we could do if we found one, and as a matter of public policy, the money
might well be considered poorly spent.
>
> The reality is that the actual risk to human life and property from
small asteroids is absurdly small compared to a large number of other
things that we actually have some control over.
>
> Chris
>
> *******************************
> Chris L Peterson
> Cloudbait Observatory
> http://www.cloudbait.com
>
> On 3/25/2013 3:15 PM, Michael Farmer wrote:
>> Congratulations to Dante Lauretta of UOfA Lunar and Planetary
Laboratory and Osiris-Rex mission, who presented a piece of Chelyabinsk
that I donated, to President Obama and Congress today while there to
discuss the threat of asteroid impact.
>>
>> Chelyabinsk was almost a "City Killer" as Richard Kowalski told me
yesterday, had it come in a few second earlier and steeper angle, a
million people in Chelyabinsk would likely be dead today.
>> Time to take meteorites serious.
>>
>> Michael Farmer
>
> ______________________________________________
>
> Visit the Archives at http://www.meteorite-list-archives.com
> Meteorite-list mailing list
> Meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com
> http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list
______________________________________________

Visit the Archives at http://www.meteorite-list-archives.com
Meteorite-list mailing list
Meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com
http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list
Received on Mon 25 Mar 2013 10:29:05 PM PDT