[meteorite-list] Comet May Have Missed Earth By A Few HundredKilometres in 1883?
From: John Lutzon <jl_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 20:42:54 -0400 Message-ID: <BA619D95EBDB42F3A9BAA275D9AECD40_at_Home> Hi Ron, Thank you again for all of your posts---very informative. I just gave up drinking beer and burned my will---no need for such trivia at this point. Does anyone have any data on this "Pons-Brooks" and/or are there any calcs. on its possible return to our backyard? Well, maybe one more beer while i wait for the flash. John. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Ron Baalke" <baalke at zagami.jpl.nasa.gov> To: "Meteorite Mailing List" <meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com> Sent: Monday, October 17, 2011 7:23 PM Subject: [meteorite-list] Comet May Have Missed Earth By A Few HundredKilometres in 1883? > > http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/27264/ > > Billion Tonne Comet May Have Missed Earth By A Few Hundred > Kilometres in 1883 > > Technology Review > October 17, 2011 > > A re-analysis of historical observations suggest Earth narrowly avoided > an extinction event just over a hundred years ago > > On 12th and 13th August 1883, an astronomer at a small observatory in > Zacatecas in Mexico made an extraordinary observation. Jos?? Bonilla > counted some 450 objects, each surrounded by a kind of mist, passing > across the face of the Sun. > > Bonilla published his account of this event in a French journal called > L'Astronomie in 1886. Unable to account for the phenomenon, the editor > of the journal suggested, rather incredulously, that it must have been > caused by birds, insects or dust passing front of the Bonilla's > telescope. (Since then, others have adopted Bonilla's observations as > the first evidence of UFOs.) > > Today, Hector Manterola at the National Autonomous University of Mexico > in Mexico City, and a couple of pals, give a different interpretation. > They think that Bonilla must have been seeing fragments of a comet that > had recently broken up. This explains the 'misty' appearance of the > pieces and why they were so close together. > > But there's much more that Manterola and co have deduced. They point out > that nobody else on the planet seems to have seen this comet passing in > front of the Sun, even though the nearest observatories in those days > were just a few hundred kilometres away. > > That can be explained using parallax. If the fragments were close to > Earth, parallax would have ensured that they would not have been in line > with the Sun even for observers nearby. And since Mexico is at the same > latitude as the Sahara, northern India and south-east Asia, it's not > hard to imagine that nobody else was looking. > > Manterola and pals have used this to place limits on how close the > fragments must have been: between 600 km and 8000 km of Earth. That's > just a hair's breadth. > > What's more, Manterola and co estimate that these objects must have > ranged in size from 50 to 800 metres across and that the parent comet > must originally have tipped the scales at a billion tonnes or more, > that's huge, approaching the size of Halley's comet. > > That's an eye opening re-examination of the data. Astronomers have seen > a number of other comets fragment. The image above shows the > Schwassmann-Wachmann 3 comet which broke apart as it re-entered the > inner Solar System in 2006. There's no reason why such fragments > couldn't pass close by Earth. > > One puzzle is why nobody else saw this comet. It must have been > particularly dull to have escaped observation before and after its close > approach. However, Manterola and co suggest that it may have been a > comet called Pons-Brooks seen that same year by American astronomers. > > Manterola and co end their paper by spelling out just how close Earth > may have come to catastrophe that day. They point out that Bonilla > observed these objects for about three and a half hours over two days. > This implies an average of 131 objects per hour and a total of 3275 > objects in the time between observations. > > Each fragment was at least as big as the one thought to have hit > Tunguska. Manterola and co end with this: "So if they had collided with > Earth we would have had 3275 Tunguska events in two days, probably an > extinction event." > > A sobering thought. > > Ref: arxiv.org/abs/1110.2798 <http://arxiv.org/abs/1110.2798>: > Interpretation Of The Observations Made In 1883 In Zacatecas (Mexico): A > Fragmented Comet That Nearly Hits The Earth > > ______________________________________________ > Visit the Archives at > http://www.meteoritecentral.com/mailing-list-archives.html > Meteorite-list mailing list > Meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com > http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list > Received on Mon 17 Oct 2011 08:42:54 PM PDT |
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