[meteorite-list] A Survey for Collectors

From: Jason Utas <*meteoritekid_at_meteoritecentral.com*> Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2011 18:43:01 -0800 Message-ID: <AANLkTin8_DbJSTQg8COFBM_ZUsnLimEWBcYynHug+sRd_at_mail.gmail.com> · meteoritekid_at_meteoritecentral.com

---
Pricing revolves around a few general characteristics...
1) Chemical rarity.  Meteorite types factor greatly into their value,
and the rarer the type, generally the higher the value.
2) Rarity of the given fall/find.  The most common type of meteorite
is an L6 ordinary chondrite.  An L6 from a place like Morocco or
Algeria is worth 5 to 10 cents per gram - a meteorite dealer might try
to sell them for more, but anyone could get them for that much.
On the other hand, a chemically *identical* meteorite that fell in
France ~two hundred years ago (a meteorite like L'Aigle) is apparently
worth nearly $1000 per gram.  (Or compare to a non-historic example
like Villalbeto de la Pe?a at ~$100/g or so.  If you don't want to
compare to a fall, compare to Kermichel at $200+/g).  A chemically
identical meteorite from the US could be bought for anywhere from $1/g
(e.g. a common meteorite like Gold Basin, an L4-6 from Arizona) to
$10-20/g for a stone like Pasamonte (b), simply because it's a small
L6 from the US.
3) Availability.  The Hoba meteorite is the largest single meteorite
ever found, at an estimated 60 metric tonnes.  But very little has
ever been removed/cut off of the 60 tonne mass (and it's now illegal
to try to do cut more off of it), so very little is available.  Hence
it's worth quite a bit per gram ($300+), when you can find any for
sale.  Part of that has to do with the fact that it's the largest
single meteorite in the world, so it is a bit of a 'must-have' for
many collections, but still -- if it were readily available like, say,
Cape York, an iron from Greenland of which many hundreds of kilograms
are on the market, it would, as Cape York does, fetch between $5 and
$10 per gram.
4) History.  A meteorite that fell a hundred years ago like Holbrook
(also a common L/LL6, and readily available to boot) is apparently
worth $20/g or so.  A new fall like Breja from May of this past year
(LL6?) with a total recovered weight of a mere 12-15 kilograms is
apparently worth $4-10/g on the market today, simply because it's a
new fall from Algeria (and is thus valued less for some reason).
Given a few decades, the prices will likely be equivalent.
5) Location of find/fall.  The total recovered weight of the Park
Forest meteorite, an L5 that fell in suburban Chicago in 2003 was at
least 25 kilograms.  At the time of the fall, stones retailed for
~$20-40 per gram.  They currently still sell for the same amount.
Compare to Bassikounou, an H5 fall in Morocco a few years ago with a
similar total known weight that still retails for ~$3-5 per gram.
6) Specimen size.  The regular collector base for meteorites is
apparently only a few thousand people.  The market for specimens
decreases exponentially as specimen price goes up.  While a hundred
people might jump at a $50 rock if it's special in some way and
reasonably priced, there are probably no more than twenty or thirty
collectors who could foot more than a few thousand dollars for any
given specimen, even if it were a 'great deal.'  Hence buying in bulk
can make a huge difference in this market; a dealer can buy a
meteorite that weighs 20+kg for a reasonable price per kilogram (say
$2-300 per kilogram), cut it up, and sell it in slices for the
'reasonable' price of $5/g.  Selling the entirety of such a meteorite
at that price might take a few years (or decades for a meteorite that
weighed a hundred or more kilograms), but the profit margin would be
substantial.
With larger finds, a finder would be hard-pressed to get more for it,
since there are simply so few people who, even if they had the money,
would be interested in buying any given meteorite at that price.  A
fine example of this would be the Brenham main mass.  The 1,400 lb
oriented pallasite couldn't even fetch $200,000 at auction when it was
marketed as the largest pallasite ever found in the US, a historic
meteorite, etc.  Was it worth more?  Based on current market prices,
there's no question.  But if no one's willing to foot the money, it
won't sell.  And what it's worth is determined by the amount a buyer
is willing to pay for it.
So smaller pieces of meteorites usually sell for more per gram than
larger pieces do - but oftentimes, specimens of a gram or so sell for
'ridiculous' prices simply because one or two collectors really want a
piece of it and are willing to pay for a representative example
regardless of size and quality in relation to price.  Larger pieces
tend to stick to perceived "values" because the folks with that sort
of money usually aren't in that big of a rush to spend it, though
particularly aesthetic meteorites have occasionally sold for
'exorbitant' amounts.
7) Random pricing curve-balls.  Peekskill, a common L6 that fell in
New York in 1992, should be worth $10-20 per gram.  But it happened to
fall on Michelle Knapp's Chevrolet Malibu.  Because it hit a car, it's
apparently worth ~$250 per gram, give or take.  The car went from
being worth a few hundred dollars to being worth, apparently, an
estimated ~$60+ thousand dollars.  Random, but apparently there are
enough people out there who are willing to pay that much per gram for
a small piece of a meteorite that hit a car.
8) Fall vs find.  A "fall" is a meteorite that is seen to fall by a
person - whether the fireball is seen/heard, or a stone lands right in
front of someone, the meteorite is deemed a "fall."  If a new
meteorite is *found* in the US (e.g. by a meteorite hunter on a dry
lake, or by someone prospecting for gold or meteorites with a metal
detector), depending on the type, rarity, etc...a new L6 might sell
for $5-20 per gram, (where it falls in that range depends largely on
the dealer that purchases it from the finder and what they choose to
set the price at), and after the initial hype quiets down, it might
sell for between $2 and $5 per gram.  The last large witnessed *fall*
in the US, Ash Creek, an L6 with a tkw of ~20-30 kilograms, initially
sold for $100/g on ebay.  The price later settled to ~$20-30 per gram.
But a small complete stone that weighed a few grams might still be
worth upwards of $50 per gram simply because people tend to like
small, fresh, complete stones.  They're harder to find, and you can't
cut up a larger one to make them - they have to be found as-is.  Hence
the premium.  And even if they're not fresh, small complete stones
still demand a reasonable base value.
9)  Who's selling it.  Some dealers are able to sell common chondrites
from NWA for several dollars per gram.  Others couldn't get $0.50 per
gram for the same material if they tried, simply because of their
clientele and reputation.  Often, the preparation and presentation of
the material is a factor, but I also find that the seller can be the
sole apparent factor in determining pricing, for whatever reason.
Remember "old yeller?"  NWA 4292.  A weathered L6 covered in yellowish
caliche.  Sold well for a common fusion-crust-less meteorite from NWA,
consistently fetching dollars per gram.  I'm not trying to say that it
wasn't worth that, but...it almost always sold for a high price,
relatively speaking.
---
[End excerpt.]
I'd like to make a few comments pertaining to the current thread, as well.
1) The collectibility of something is determined by its appeal to the
collector.  People are attracted to different things -- whether
someone has a 'type' collection, a locality collection, etc. -- that's
all personal preference.  I have the feeling that you intended the
first question to pertain more to question of value than to the 'why,'
so the above excerpt is likely more useful than this direct answer.
2) Values are determined by the seller; each time s/he lets a specimen
go, he is setting a selling value for the given meteorite being sold.
Sellers set examples for the price(s) at which pieces of a given
meteorite can be obtained.  At the same time, every time a meteorite
is bought, the buyer sets the value.  By being willing to pay a given
amount for a meteorite, the buyer is setting a price at which that
dealer can expect to sell that meteorite in the future.  That is how
prices are set.  People talk to each other about past sales and
purchases, and, generally, there is some consensus on value, and a
reasonable (well, 'agreed-upon as reasonable') range is established.
3) More martians and lunars will continue to be found, so I don't see
both of these types of meteorites as likely to increase in value any
time soon.  That said, people have yet to realize that we're finding
martian meteorites significantly less often than we're finding lunars.
 Why are martians worth consistently less per gram right now?  I'm
still trying to figure that one out.
4) Yes and no.  On the one hand, these space rocks are infinitely more
rare than most of the collectible 'stuff' you can find on ebay,
ranging from sports cards to Pez candy dispensers and the like.  The
perspective that I (and others that I've spoken to, esp. within the
'meteorite world') have generally had when viewing these things is
that people had made them, and that people could make more of them if
they so chose.  What's the difference between a first edition book and
a second edition?  The words prior to "edition," and perhaps the
correction of typos.  And value, apparently.  The first edition, more
likely to be rife with errors, is worth more.  Go figure.
And the penny that the folks at the treasury couldn't even set
straight is now worth more than most meteorites:
http://minterrornews.com/priceguide.html
So, a person's mistake is worth more than a reasonably large piece of
the 4.5 billion year old, pristine material dating from the formation
of the solar system that can give us insights on how we, our planet,
and our entire solar system came into being.  Which would you rather
have?  A gram or so of Ivuna, or a 1943 error penny?  More people
would choose the penny.  Go figure.
Supply and demand.
Meteorites are priced based on supply and demand, and the price is set
by buyers and sellers alike.  Therefore the price is exactly where it
should be, because, in theory, a price set by supply and demand is a
fair price...  The meteorites I want, I buy, and the meteorites I
don't want, I don't buy.  Would I like to have a nice pallasite?
Sure, but not enough to sell the house and car to buy it.  And so the
Fukang/Brenham/Seymchan/Brahin main masses remain unsold (to my
knowledge).  Canada decided that they wanted the biggest piece of
Springwater and were willing to pay fair value for it -- an example of
the almost unique exception to what usually happens.
5) I can predict little.  The market is irrational.  The only way one
can make money in meteorites is not through rationally trying to
understand what the value of a given meteorite *should be,* but rather
by knowing what people are willing to pay for a given meteorite at a
given time.  I assume general stability, and that, over time, prices
will generally rise with inflation, as most things seem to follow that
rule.  That's about it.  In the past few years I've seen some prices
skyrocket, and others drop horrifically.  I shudder to think of those
who invested in lunars and/or martians ten or fifteen years ago.
They're out thousands of dollars.  Tens of thousands.  The more they
spent, the more they lost.
Meteorites like Gold Basin that were worth $0.50-$1/g ten years ago,
and that are worth the same now, have declined substantially in value.
 [Inflation.]  Something to ponder.
With regards to Jim's comments about Franconia, I have two thoughts:
First is that while they may be getting harder to find, they're still
being found, and there's little demand for them now that most people
who want one, have one.  Just because it costs someone $150 to find a
meteorite doesn't mean that the rock is inherently "worth" $150 or
more.  If you are hunting in order to sell your finds for money, and
people aren't willing to pay you what it costs to find them, it
probably means that you should rethink your business model.  Telling
buyers that they should pay more can work in certain situations,
but...I'm not going to pay you $10/g for Franconia.  I suppose someone
else might, and if you can convince them to spend that much on it,
bully to you.
But I find it hard to believe.  The 850 gram individual on ebay for
$650 has been there for months.  Still no takers.
Second is that I'm surprised that you would name Franconia as
underpriced when both you and I can purchase a visually identical (or
nicer) meteorite from NWA for 1/20 of the price.  Literally.  Moroccan
dealers had NWA ordinary chondrites in bins for $0.05 per gram this
year in Tucson.  Some asked $0.10 per gram.  The newly available CV3's
from an apparently large find were available for $0.50 or less
(carbonaceous chondrites!!).
And they couldn't sell them.  There was simply too much of it around.
Given five or ten years, I'm sure it will all disappear, but...perhaps
I'm alone in this.  Why do you believe that an H5 from Arizona should
be worth more than an H5 from NWA when they're ultimately the same
thing?
They take just as much time to find in NWA, after all.  It's not like
meteorites fall less often here in the US.
Don't get me wrong -- I've bought enough Franconia myself, at 'fair'
prices.  They're "worth," what they're "worth."
As someone who knows the market and who knows that an H5 is an H5, you
should still recognize that the difference in pricing is based solely
on the fact that we as a community have decided that a meteorite that
takes ten hours for an American to find is worth twenty times more
than a meteorite that it takes ten hours for a Moroccan to find.
I'm glad for that, because if that weren't the case, the meteorites
we've spent eleven years finding here in California would be worth a
mere few hundred dollars, but...just sayin.'
Lastly, I'm amazed at the degree to which some people are allowing
personal interests to work their way into these posts.  I'm not going
to name names, but, seriously -- if you're going to say that the
meteorite *you* just bought a lot of and are currently trying to sell
for a profit is the one that you think should drastically increase in
value...I've just lost some respect for you.  This was meant to be an
educational thread, not an ad.
Regards,
Jason
Jason Utas
University of California, Berkeley 2012
College of Letters and Science
Psychology, Geology
On Mon, Feb 21, 2011 at 2:17 PM, Jim Wooddell <jimwooddell at gmail.com> wrote:
> Kevin,
>
> I can say that any meteorite found in the USA, in known strewn fields
> is undervalued both in "Cha-Ching" as well as scientifically.
> The cost of collecting such specimens, such as a simple OC
> from...say...Franconia, is a very time consuming, expensive venture.
> A typical hunt day can easily cost $150 per day or more ?not including
> man-hours if a hunter's time is worth anything.
> Yesterday, for example, a two person hunt at Franconia came up with
> one (1) 17.4g OC. ?So minus the "just getting there" tiime, vehicle
> costs, etc., ?there were 13 man-hours
> of on the ground hunting for that one space rock. ?And, there are
> hunts where no one comes up with anything.
> Cold finds are even worse! ?It has been written that 800 man-hours
> between any kind of find might not be hard to do. ?The amount of time
> invested is simply worth far more than anyone is paying for them, to
> the point of being embarrassing for the industry. ?Don't quit your day
> job doing this...you will starve to death. ?Anyone can do the math.
>
>
> So, yes. ?My opinion is that they are way undervalued to the extreme.
> Just my point of view.
>
> Kind Regards,
>
> Jim Wooddell
>
>
>
>
> On Mon, Feb 21, 2011 at 10:14 AM, Kevin Kichinka <marsrox at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> 3. What are the most undervalued meteorites or categories of
>> meteorite? In what categories do you see the most potential for
>> growth?
>>
>> 4. Do you believe that meteorites are undervalued or overvalued
>> overall, in comparison to other collectibles such as fossils or coins
>> or wristwatches or contemporary art?
>>
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