[meteorite-list] Witnessed fall lunars?still no clear answere

From: GERALD FLAHERTY <GRF2_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Wed, 8 Sep 2010 22:24:22 -0400
Message-ID: <0C823552-1D57-4780-A898-A71B954D612B_at_COMCAST.NET>

Simple but true. Odds favor no witnesses!
On Sep 8, 2010, at 12:17 PM, Martin Altmann wrote:

> Hi
>
> Because the people weren't there, when and where they felt, to witness them.
>
> General fall rates are a topic for its own, they range in the discussion
> from a few thousands up to 40,000 falls per year, where a nice stone is
> really dropped.
>
> And each year there are recovered from these thousands of falls always only
> zero to a dozen.
> And only the last 200 years meteorite falls were really noticed.
>
> http://tin.er.usgs.gov/meteor/
>
> Currently the database has 52000 valid & provisional meteorite entries.
> Means - I don't know - 36566 form Antarctica, average pairing rate let's say
> 5, 7300 original falls.
> 1200 witnessed falls.
> 2000 or so non-desert finds.
> 12,000 or so desert finds, let's say pairing rate 3...
>
> So extremely roughly guessed we have stuff from 15,000 different meteorite
> falls.
>
>
> Let's look...
> Antarcica 7000+ different fall events - 19 lunaites and 15 Martians.
>
> Oman, where the data are better than with NWA (hopefully not too much
> pairings will be artificially created? Switzerland?)
> 2800 numbers 22 lunaites and 4 Martians
>
> Falls
> 1200 0 lunaites and 4 Martians
>
>
> Sooo... observed falls are unsuspicious, regarding the problem that a
> lunaite wouldn't be recognized in the field, cause it is too similar to
> terrestrial rocks.
> Partially Antarctica too as partially the rocks were collected on sheer ice.
>
> Therefrom we can speculate, that lunaites fall much more rarely than
> asteroidial meteorites
> (id est all the other stuff, without Martians).
>
> Hence they are rare per se.
>
> With finds, well there we see, that from among 100-350 meteorites found and
> published meteorites 1 is a lunar.
> (Perhaps the ratio is even larger...with the desert finds, ordinary
> chondrites often aren't classified at present).
>
> But doesn't matter, that here is totally unscientifical :-)
>
> So.
> 99% of all meteorites aren't lunars (finds, falls stats)
> 99.9% of all meteorite falls aren't observed.
> Meteorite falls we tend to witness and to report so far only in a tiny
> window of 200 years.
> 1200 witnessed falls we have.
>
>
> This dairymaid calculation - we say here for a na?ve fallacy -
> makes it at least for me plausible,
> why we haven't any observed lunar fall yet
>
> and it doesn't exclude that an observed fall could have happened in past
> among the 1200 observed ones
> and it neither excludes that it will happen in future!
>
> So I think the reason isn't so much a physical one, but it's only: Chance.
>
> Best!
> Martin
>
>
> -----Urspr?ngliche Nachricht-----
> Von: meteorite-list-bounces at meteoritecentral.com
> [mailto:meteorite-list-bounces at meteoritecentral.com] Im Auftrag von Steve
> Dunklee
> Gesendet: Mittwoch, 8. September 2010 16:49
> An: almitt2 at localnet.com; meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com
> Betreff: Re: [meteorite-list] Witnessed fall lunars?still no clear answere
>
> Hi everyone. You did a good job of thrashing my response without giving an
> answere to the original question. Why are there no lunar witnessed falls? DR
> kortev did say there are twice as many Martian impacts,which to me is a lot
> or many more. Another person questioned if they would have enough velocity
> to be seen which is a verry good point because some would reach terminal
> velocity much sooner than an object from mars or the astroid belt. The
> amount of time recovered lunars take to reach earth has been said to be the
> same as mars meteorites. I am beginning to believe it may be a matter of
> recognition. A lunar would reach terminal velocity 20 or more miles up and
> fall without making a sound. And if it did make a sound the person finding
> it would do everyones "is it a meteorite" test. Brown or green crust? Doesnt
> stick to a magnet.vesicles on the crust. Must not be a meteorite. And what
> size does it take to launch a rock from the moon?small would do it.
> Cheers Steve
>
>
>
>
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Received on Wed 08 Sep 2010 10:24:22 PM PDT