[meteorite-list] Related Meteorite Falls 11 years apart? BothHammers! Both L6 Olivine-hypersthene ANSWER e
From: Sterling K. Webb <sterling_k_webb_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Mon, 8 Mar 2010 00:51:38 -0600 Message-ID: <A47D437549C04561890851DDD5881BC0_at_ATARIENGINE2> Hi, Shawn, Eric, and all the posters, Living beings evolve to become increasingly sensitive to meaningful patterns. Failure to recognize a pattern of danger can have a high, even fatal, penalty, whereas seeing danger where there is none has only a slight penalty in waste energy and stress. Humans are better at seeing patterns in the world around them than any other organism on the planet. Frequently, we are too good at it, as when we discover the Face of God in the burnt wrinkles of a tortilla, or accept too much circumstantial evidence of the unlikely. Whether one thinks the Wethersfield falls are truly coincidental or not, you notice that the question was thought to be worth answering; we examined them petrologically to find out. And, just to make matters worse, in addition to the two Wethersfield L6's in 1971 and 1982, there's the Stratford, CT L6 in 1974, only 48 miles away from Wethersfield... In addition to 2 meteorites in a two-mile circle in 11 years, it's 3 meteorites in a 50-mile circle in 11 years. Martin compares the coincidence of the 11-year falls of two meteorites within 1.4 miles of each other to the fall of rain drops on the same wet spot. What is the difference between meteorite fall and raindrop fall? Their frequency. Many more raindrops fall than do meteorites, so many more raindrops that the fact that two raindrops fall on the same spot is unremarkable, but the fall of two meteorites near each other in short order is not. The true significance of rare events like the two falls in Wethersfield is as a potential indicator of the overall fall rate of meteorites. There is even a kind of mathematical analysis that deals with the frequencies of rare events: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution Unfortunately, it can't be applied with only one sample event like Wethersfield "coincidence." This is because we don't know if the Wethersfield's were a 1-in-a-hundred coincidence or a 1-in-a-million coincidence, or as the man in the street says, "What are the odds?" Is it a pattern, or an accident? Personally, since I don't like to believe in highly unlikely events, I see Wethersfield as an indicator of a higher fall rate, but those who really don't like high fall rates will see Wethersfield as a rarer coincidence than I do because they're more comfortable with rare events than increased "normal" levels of risk. It all boils down to your personal taste in universes... Sterling K. Webb --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- Original Message ----- From: "Shawn Alan" <photophlow at yahoo.com> To: <eric at meteoritesusa.com> Cc: <meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com> Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2010 5:26 PM Subject: [meteorite-list] Related Meteorite Falls 11 years apart? BothHammers! Both L6 Olivine-hypersthene ANSWER e Hi Eric and Listers, Eric you had said... "Two small rocks of the same exact type floated around the solar system for millions/billions of years, and crash land within 1.4 miles of each other only 11 years apart and they are not related? So basically it's a coincidence? ;)" Now when you say coincidence your inferring its not a coincidence and the two falls happened for some other reason, like the act of god, or the solar system is trying to tell us something? Meteorites fall alot, its been happening over 4 billion years. Chondrites are the most common meteorite, so it would make since that the probability of two meteorites of the same type and class could happen. But again with probability anything can happen. Tomorrow another meteorite could hit in Wethersfield again and could be a Chondrite. Whats in question is the odds of it happening again. A few months ago Lorton had a visitor and it was a Chondrite and it also had hit a building and landed on the floor in a doctors office. Now for the Wethersfield 1971 and 1982 falls were independent of each other which would make them 2 separate falls canceling out the pairing hypotheses. As for the two meteorites coming from the same parent body, I would have to say no because the petrographic is different between the two. In addition, the cosmic ray exposure age is 3MY for the 1971 fall and 50 MY from the 1982 fall, inferring that the two falls came from different parent bodies. Here is a link to a pdf that explains this in better detail. http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-iarticle_query?1987Metic..22..358C&data_type=PDF_HIGH&whole_paper=YES&type=PRINTER&filetype=.pdf Now I have a question for everyone, I wonder which fall is worth more money. If it wasn't for the second fall, this would have never happened. But again if it wasn't for the first it wouldnt have happen either. But what I can say is that the first fall in 1971 is 7 times smaller then the fall in 1982. Shawn Alan [meteorite-list] Related Meteorite Falls 11 years apart? Both Hammers! Both L6 Olivine-hypersthene Meteorites USA eric at meteoritesusa.com Sun Mar 7 17:10:36 EST 2010 Previous message: [meteorite-list] Related Meteorite Falls 11 years apart? Both Hammers! Both L6 Olivine-hypersthene Next message: [meteorite-list] Record Nevada Chondrite Find Messages sorted by: [ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hi Michael, Thanks for the opinion... Could you share some of the research? Papers, articles, maps, photos, classifications etc... Though I appreciate and respect it, I just have a hard time grasping or believing a coincidence in this circumstance. Statistically it seems very possible they are related and from the same parent body. In fact the probability of them NOT being related seems remote as it doesn't make sense not to consider the likelihood of a pairing relationship. Or am I just trying to talk myself into it? ;) Has anyone looked at Google Earth and zoomed out to see how small a spot that actually is? That's like shooting a speeding bullet our of the air with another. The Earth is rotating ~365 times per year, x 11 years that's 4015 rotations of the earth and 11 complete orbits around the Sun. Two small rocks of the same exact type floated around the solar system for millions/billions of years, and crash land within 1.4 miles of each other only 11 years apart and they are not related? So basically it's a coincidence? ;) Regards, Eric On 3/7/2010 1:49 PM, Michael Blood wrote: > Hi Erich, > All the research I have found indicates no relationship. > Best wishes, Michael > > > On 3/7/10 11:03 AM, "Eric Wichman"<eric at meteoritesusa.com> wrote: > > >> Hi Listees, >> >> Perhaps this is a dumb question... The Wethersfield meteorite(s) two >> stones fell 11 years apart, both of them crashed through the roofs of >> homes, and both are L6 Olivine-hypersthene chondrites. >> >> The houses that were hit were only 1.4 miles from each other. >> >> Are these two pieces paired? Are they from the same meteoroid stream? >> >> Article on the Wethersfield Meteorite: >> http://www.peabody.yale.edu/collections/met/met_wethersfield.html >> >> Newspaper Article - The Day: >> http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1915&dat=19821109&id=yAMhAAAAIBAJ&sjid=Z >> nUFAAAAIBAJ&pg=2345,1773959 >> >> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ >> ---- >> METEORITICAL BULLETIN ENTRY INFO: >> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ >> ---- >> Name: Wethersfield (1982) >> http://tin.er.usgs.gov/meteor/metbull.php?code=24251 >> Observed fall: Yes >> Year fell: 1982 >> Country: United States >> Mass: 2.76 kg >> >> FALL OF THE WETHERSFIELD (1982), USA, STONY METEORITE >> Name: WETHERSFIELD (1982) >> Place of fall: Wethersfield, Connecticut, USA. >> 41?42'38"N., 72?40'25"W. >> Date of fall: November 8, 1982, 2114 hrs. >> Class and type: Stone. Olivine-hypersthene chondrite (L6). Olivine >> Fa25 >> Number of individual >> specimens: 1 and small fragments >> Total weight: 2756 g >> >> Circumstances of fall: Following a fireball and thunder-like booms, a >> mass of 2704 g and about 52 g of fragments were recovered after >> falling >> through the roof of a house in Wethersfield, Connecticut, USA. >> >> Source: R.S. Clarke, Jr., Department of Mineral Sciences, Smithsonian >> Institution, Washington, D.C. 20560, USA. >> Note: The stone which fell in 1971 on the same town should now be >> referred to as the Wethersfield (1971) meteorite. >> >> Name: Wethersfield (1971) >> http://tin.er.usgs.gov/meteor/metbull.php?code=24250 >> Observed fall: Yes >> Year fell: 1971 >> Country: United States >> Mass: 350 g >> >> FALL OF THE WETHERSFIELD, CONNECTICUT, STONY METEORITE >> Name: WETHERSFIELD >> Place of fall: Wethersfield, Connecticut. >> 72? 39'E, 41? 42'N. >> Date of fall: April 8, 1971. Probably between 0700 and 1100 GMT, and >> certainly between 0430 and 1130 GMT. >> Class and type: Stony. Olivine-hypersthene chondrite. >> Number of individual specimens: 1 >> Total weight: 350 g >> >> Circumstances of fall: The meteorite fell through the roof of the >> home >> of Mr. and Mrs. Paul J. Cassarino and was found in the early morning >> suspended in a ceiling. The specimen was obtained for the Smithsonian >> Institution by Dr. Richard E. McCrosky and is now in the Division of >> Meteorites, Washington. >> >> Sources: Dr. Richard E. McCrosky, Smithsonian Astrophysical >> Observatory, >> Cambridge, Massachusetts. Reports of the Smithsonian Institution >> Center >> for Short-Lived Phenomena, Cambridge, Massachusetts (Event number >> 35-71, >> card number 1172 of April 17, 1971, and card number 1175 of April 20, >> 1971). >> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ >> ---- >> >> What are the chances of this being the same meteoroid(s) orbiting the >> Sun and coming back around in 11 years to smash another house not 1.4 >> miles from the first? >> >> Regards, >> Eric Wichman >> Meteorites USA >> >> ______________________________________________ >> Visit the Archives at >> http://www.meteoritecentral.com/mailing-list-archives.html >> Meteorite-list mailing list >> Meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com >> http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list >> > > > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Previous message: [meteorite-list] Related Meteorite Falls 11 years apart? Both Hammers! Both L6 Olivine-hypersthene Next message: [meteorite-list] Record Nevada Chondrite Find Messages sorted by: [ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- More information about the Meteorite-list mailing list ______________________________________________ Visit the Archives at http://www.meteoritecentral.com/mailing-list-archives.html Meteorite-list mailing list Meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list Received on Mon 08 Mar 2010 01:51:38 AM PST |
 StumbleUpon del.icio.us reddit Yahoo MyWeb
|