[meteorite-list] Failure is the expected outcome of current NASA NEO detection plans

From: E.P. Grondine <epgrondine_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Wed, 25 Feb 2009 09:25:50 -0800 (PST)
Message-ID: <586063.41762.qm_at_web36908.mail.mud.yahoo.com>

Hi all -

Take a real good look at the second paragraph of this abstract by Lindley N. Johnson, who is HQ manager of NASA's NEO detection effort:

The NASA NEO Observation Program and the Impact Threat Uncertainty for Society
Lindley N. Johnson
NASA Headquarters SMD/PSD MS 3X63, 300 E Street, SW, Washington, DC, 20546, USA
lindley.johnson at nasa.gov

Abstract. After ten years of Near Earth Object (NEO) search operations, NASA is approaching its initial goal of finding at least 90% of the larger, 1 kilometer and greater sized objects which could pose a collision hazard to Earth. Although no near term (within 100 years) impact threats have yet been identified, several with close approaches to Earth have been found, the most troubling a 270 meter sized object now called ?Apophis? whose orbit brings it to an encounter with Earth every six to seven years. A particularly close approach of Apophis in 2029 makes uncertain what its impact potential will be on subsequent encounters.

Now Congress has directed NASA to extend the NEO search over the next decade down to objects as small as 140 meters ? a population over 100 times as numerous as the 1 kilometer and larger objects. This will significantly increase the number of hazardous objects found and, because of their smaller size - which increases the difficulty of obtaining enough observations to accurately predict their orbits, it will also increase the number of objects for which the impact threat is uncertain. With the current observation assets, it may be months to years before enough data is collected to hopefully rule out, but potentially confirm an impact threat.

What will be the effects on society of living under this ?impact cloud? ? knowing that a threat is indeed there but not knowing precisely the probability of it actually occurring? This presentation will review the operations and progress of the current NASA NEO Observation Program and reflect on what has been learned to date about the hazardous population and the difficulty in determining impact threats. It will then present what NASA?s plans are for extending the search for smaller objects and collecting the data necessary to accurately determine orbits and characterized the nature of potential threats. Finally, it will pose what more could or should be done, both in the US and internationally, to reduce the uncertainty in determination of future impact threats and lessen the disturbance to society.

end abstract

If the impact rate in the immediate future is anything like its been for the last 13,000 years, we're in deep kimchi, unless NASA starts to work on CAPS seriously.

E.P. Grondine
Man and Impact in the Americas


      
Received on Wed 25 Feb 2009 12:25:50 PM PST