[meteorite-list] Ad New Canadian Meteorite for sale

From: Dave Gheesling <dave_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Sun, 7 Dec 2008 12:43:46 -0500
Message-ID: <3AC8FDACCA61497DB7293D64F1F53747_at_meteorroom>

Jason, Darryl & All,
Darryl is right. This "industry" is famous for pricing/value issues. Many
dealers (not all, of course...just many) have brought new material to the
market, sold it for a premium to make their profit, then dumped the
remaining material once the market has been satisfied as if this were the
retail clothing business (will provide an explanation here if it's needed)
on countless occasions. It's hard to imaging that this might inspire
confidence in a serious collector. The "low-end numbers" part of Darryl's
email is secondary to this, and it's not clear which numbers he's referring
to within the framework of this discussion, anyway. Government intervention
-- such as is present in Canada -- has a way of adding to the chaos around
specimen value (and generating some tragedies along the way, a la Tagish
Lake), too. It's great that Sonny and McCartney were hunting this fall
early, and hopefully as this continues to happen the message about the
importance of recovering material and the need for a strong incentive to
make that possible gets out. International laws regarding meteorite
recovery and export have virtually all been established as a bolt-on package
to other legislation around artifacts, etc, and for the most part these
decisions have been made by officials who have probably never even seen a
meteorite (let alone developed an understanding of the field and related
relevant issues). Back to values and suppliers contacting collectors
directly in the North African falls: this is illustrative of the near
absence of a conventional distribution channel, and there is risk that comes
with acquiring material in that manner. The internet has made it possible
for just about anyone to be a dealer and these challenges will likely
continue to fester until an international organization truly establishes
some standards in this arena around verifiable provenance, prioritizing
meteorite recovery over politics, proper curation, collection transfer
protocol and the like.
Dave
www.fallingrocks.com

-----Original Message-----
From: meteorite-list-bounces at meteoritecentral.com
[mailto:meteorite-list-bounces at meteoritecentral.com] On Behalf Of Jason Utas
Sent: Sunday, December 07, 2008 11:02 AM
To: Meteorite-list
Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Ad New Canadian Meteorite for sale

Darryl,
Low-end numbers? Even Park Forest which was witnessed, caught on numerous
videos, and fell in a densely populated urban environment - in what may well
be a majority of cases, hitting man-made objects, was selling for $30/g or
so at the time of the fall - a price which has stayed roughly the same, if
it hasn't come down a few dollars per gram since then.
How much Park Forest was recovered? According to this report, roughly 30kg.

http://www.psrd.hawaii.edu/Aug04/ParkForest.html

More of this fall has been recovered in the past week than from the entire
fall of Park Forest.
It hasn't hit anything interesting, as far as we know.
It's an ordinary chondrite - even Park Forest had some pretty
brecciation/melt. I've heard of nothing of the sort from this fall.
It was caught on video, granted, and that does make it special in one
way...why you think that should boost the value of it to twice the value of
the undoubtedly more interesting Park Forest, also caught on video (and five
or ten times the price of other comparable falls), I honestly...I'm at a
lack for words.

"Low-end numbers being bandied about?"

On the one hand, you seem to criticize the high price being asked by these
sellers, and on the other, you say the current market rates for other falls
are "low-end numbers?"

I don't understand. $5-10/g for these new falls is far overpriced, as best
I can tell. At least with Chergach and Bassikounou, suppliers were
contacting list-members directly and offering stones at $2/g initially -
less for larger stones.

You seem to be saying that's too cheap. Why? If the sellers are content,
and I don't think the buyers are complaining, well, I can't see any reason
for you to say such a thing. If both parties are happy, I honestly don't
see how you can say such a thing.

Look at the numbers from my last email. A mere $10/g would provide the
hunters each with $5,000, assuming they only came back with 250g each.

It's classic marketing technique to tell potential buyers that they got
precious little out of the fall, as they said they did.
If people think there's less, they'll want to buy more. There's a reason
they're not telling anyone how much they got, after all. I wonder why...and
I wonder if they ever will tell us how much they found/were allowed to
keep.... After all, unless they're just using that as a marketing ploy,
they really have no reason not to tell us.

Jason

On Sun, Dec 7, 2008 at 7:38 AM, Darryl Pitt <darryl at dof3.com> wrote:
>
>
> Folks,
>
> If I've said it once I've said it a thousand times: meteorites as a
> collectible do not attract more serious collectors because there are
> too many aberrations of valuation--such that the aberrations have
> become the norm. Several serious collectors who have been intrigued
> with meteorites have shared with me that they've opted not to climb in
> because of their belief in an "immature" and "unsophisticated"
marketplace. Their words.
>
> In my humble opinion, the quality of the fireball video associated
> with the Canadian event makes it worth far more than the low-end
> numbers being bandied about.
>
> Everything else being the same, no witnessed fall should ever sell for
> a couple of bucks a gram, and we should all strive to make certain
> this doesn't occur.
>
> All best / d
>
>
> =====================
>
>
> On Dec 7, 2008, at 3:34 AM, Jason Utas wrote:
>
>> Hello Jeff, All,
>>
>> The comparison to Carancas was provided as a contrast simply because
>> it is such an unusual and different meteorite, and yet the asking
>> price for these new Canadian stones is roughly what Carancas is going
>> for right now. It's a large, ordinary, equilibrated chondrite fall,
>> the likes of which we see almost once a year with some regularity
>> (e.g. Thuathe, Amgala, Park Forest, Kilabo, Bensour, Chergach,
>> Bassikounou, Berduc, etc.).
>>
>> And the asking price is more than Park Forest, which was a
>> spectacular urban fall, and of which less material was found. The
>> asking price for Park Forest currently runs between $20-30/g, from what I
can find.
>> A dealer or two have it listed at $40/g, but...not average. The
>> price at the time was...$20-30/g. It started high, and, because of
>> great demand for the urban fall, it stayed high.
>>
>> All of the other falls are ~$1.20/g (see the beautifully fresh 1.7kg
>> Chergach that just passed on ebay, from ET, as well as a brace of
>> stones I personally bought in the 120g range from an American dealer)
>> to the asking price of $5-10/g for pieces of the other falls (see
>> ebay
>> - meteoritica, Hupe - both have Chergach currently listed on ebay,
>> and there's quite a bit of Bensour around if you want to compare
>> that), not that they sell quickly at those prices. After all, if you
>> look at what's listed, well, those are the pieces that have yet to sell.
>>
>> The only comparable meteorite I can find is the Argentinean fall of
>> Berduc, which, though I can't name any names (it was a while ago),
>> was listed between $10 and $30/g. Restricted export, few suppliers,
>> fresh fall, etc.
>>
>> The initial determining of the asking price of a fall is essentially
>> arbitrary The hunters could set it at $5/g or $10/g if they only
>> wanted to cover personal costs (and make a little on the side). Or
>> they could try to set it at $1000/g to make a profit. The only thing
>> keeping them from charging that much is the knowledge that, at some
>> point, they wouldn't turn a profit because their asking price would
>> be too high for anyone to buy.
>> A dealer looking to turn as high a profit as possible would ask as
>> high a price as he could, while still selling all of his material.
>>
>> Why wouldn't they? Do you really feel indignant enough at the
>> dealers' asking five or ten times the price for comparable falls to
>> not buy a stone from them? Personally, I do, and I won't. I think
>> they're taking advantage of us folks who love them, but who have jobs
>> and obligations - people who love them enough that we would go on
>> such trips that we could, but who can't because of our responsibilities.
>>
>> But let's have some fun.
>>
>> Lets assume these fellows come back with a mere 500g. Just over a
>> pound of space, between the two of them.
>> And let's assume a high trip/cost estimate:
>> Given that next-day flights to Edmonton from where I live were ~$130,
>> and let's say they both stay there for a week at $80/night + food, a
>> car....it works out to about a thousand dollars for the trip, each.
>> $2,000 combined cost.
>>
>> If that's right, they would break even at $4/g. Each $1/g over $4/g
>> would give them $500.
>> If they're asking $50/g, they would make...$46x500.
>>
>> That's a profit of $23,000.
>>
>> And if my estimate was off and they each flew first-class, rented
>> Hummers, and spent $50/day on food, they'll only make $20,000 off of
>> 500g.
>>
>> ...Do you think they got more than a pound of material from the trip?
>> I would assume so.
>> A kilogram between the two of them would give them almost $50,000.
>> Not bad for a quick flight up to Edmonton and a week's fun.
>>
>> I'll wait for the thaw. Anyone else who has spring break free (dates
>> available), drop me a line and I'll see what kind of a trip we can
>> arrange. What I can promise is that if I do find enough on that trip
>> to warrant selling some, I'll have it at a reasonable price.
>>
>> Regards,
>> Jason
>>
>>
>>
>> On Sat, Dec 6, 2008 at 11:18 PM, Jeff Kuyken <info at meteorites.com.au>
>> wrote:
>>>
>>> Steve and Mike both touched on an interesting point here that I was
>>> pondering myself the last couple of days. The material found now
>>> will be different to the material found weeks, months and years down
>>> the track. I didn't realise how much a fall can vary until "Amgala"
>>> (Oum Dreyga). I purchased a 15g individual from Mike Farmer from his
>>> very first batch of about 1kg. I believe these were about the first
>>> stones picked up. I paid about $10/g and it was worth every cent. I
>>> have several other Oum Dreyga specimens from numerous sources and
>>> NONE come even close to the first 15g which looks like soot would
>>> rub off on your hands. In fact no other recent fall I have appears
>>> as fresh as this stone. Two other recent falls that come immediately
>>> to mind with vast differences in weathering are Park Forest and
>>> Moss.
>>>
>>> So maybe $50/g is high but maybe it's also not so bad considering
>>> what the other stones 'might' be like down the track. You can also
>>> speculate all you like but there are so many factors which will
>>> dictate the price of a fall.
>>> And I don't think you can really compare one with another. Comparing
>>> this Canadian fall with Carancas is probably not a good measure at
>>> all. They are two totally different falls with two totally different
>>> stories.
>>>
>>> The most important thing to remember about the 'value' of a
>>> meteorite (or anything for that matter) is that it is only worth
>>> what someone is willing to pay.
>>>
>>> Cheers,
>>>
>>> Jeff
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> ----- Original Message ----- From: <MeteorHntr at aol.com>
>>> To: <star_wars_collector at yahoo.com>;
>>> <meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com>
>>> Sent: Saturday, December 06, 2008 5:34 AM
>>> Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Ad New Canadian Meteorite for sale
>>>
>>>
>>>> Greg and All,
>>>>
>>>> I tend to agree that the price MIGHT drop to $10/g, especially if
>>>> there is a high degree of rusting on the specimens found later
>>>> next year.
>>>>
>>>> However, there is a chance the Canadians might offer to buy all or
>>>> most of the ones already found.
>>>>
>>>> If the land owners can get a tax credit on $50/g to donate them,
>>>> everyone up there might be happy to donate them, and at a 50% tax
>>>> rate, that is the same as getting $25/g cash in hand to the
>>>> overtaxed Canadians.
>>>>
>>>> It sounds like most of the land owners are very wealthy, so money
>>>> may not mean anything to them. They might donate them all and not
>>>> even care about a tax break or cash values at all.
>>>>
>>>> If only a few kilos make it to the market place, then we could see
>>>> the value be higher than $10/g.
>>>>
>>>> If we seen hundreds of rusty kilos coming onto the market, then we
>>>> could see the prices end up way below $10/g.
>>>>
>>>> In any case, we probably will have to wait for the 6 months to
>>>> pass to see what is not purchased by the Canadian Government.
>>>>
>>>> One thing is sure, if ALL the masses were put on a restricted
>>>> Canadian only collector market, a few hundred kilos would probably
>>>> sell for $0.10 a gram or even less.
>>>>
>>>> A smart thing might be to buy one specimen from Sonny and McCartney
>>>> NOW at $50/g and then buy more later at $10/g and if the price goes
>>>> down to under $1/g then buy so much more that you will have cost
>>>> averaged your first purchase at $50/g down to a reasonable level.
>>>>
>>>> Of course, if you are one of those people that get a rush at
>>>> owning the newest most famous meteorite that everyone is talking
>>>> about around the water cooler, then how can you put a value on
>>>> that???
>>>>
>>>> :-)
>>>>
>>>> And also, realize that if you do buy a meteorite from Sonny and
>>>> McCartney now, you are investing into field recovery. I seriously
>>>> doubt they will make a profit on this trip even if they sold what
>>>> little they found at $100/g, but if they can come close to breaking
>>>> even, maybe next time they will again be able to afford to get on
>>>> the scene early and find more.
>>>>
>>>> And at the very least, we should congratulate them on getting to
>>>> the scene and making an effort.
>>>>
>>>> Good job guys, and congratulations!
>>>>
>>>> Steve Arnold #1
>>>> www.SteveArnoldMeteorites.com
>>>>
>>>> **************Make your life easier with all your friends, email,
>>>> and favorite sites in one place. Try it now.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> (http://www.aol.com/?optin=new-dp&icid=aolcom40vanity&ncid=emlcntao
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>>>>
>>>
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Received on Sun 07 Dec 2008 12:43:46 PM PST