[meteorite-list] Meteorites Used To Study Solar Activity ATLAST!!!

From: Sterling K. Webb <sterling_k_webb_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Fri Sep 29 02:34:05 2006
Message-ID: <006201c6e391$3a8fbf20$fa57e146_at_ATARIENGINE>

Hi, EP, List,


> a small change in the Sun's radiation
> leads to a big change in temperature.

    I lean toward SOME small input = big output
system as an explanation. It has a certain elegance.

> A South African meteorologist has noted that sunspot
> activity varies with the relation of our Sun to our
> solar systems center of gravity...

    Taking this from your followup email, EP:

> Our analyses show that the changes in the receipt
> of solar energy are appreciably greater than those
> generally quoted in the climate change literature.

    Calculating from the glacticentric coordinates of the
solar system barycenter or from heliocentric coordinates
should transform smoothly to the same distances between
any two bodies, just as the transform from geocentric
coordinates to heliocentric coordinates does.
    What he's saying is that the distance from the Earth
to the Sun varies over a 21-year cycle and that this variation
has not been accounted for in the centuries of complex
celestial mechanics. Not likely, if that's what he means.
    Later: The Googling this sent me on reveals LOTS of
material involving climate cycles and the barycentric motion
of the Sun, and a lot of it smells fringe-like. Some figures
were reasonably, if strangely, scientific (Fairbridge, Landscheidt)
and others were, well, just strange.
    The whole field of sunspots, cycles, and climate seems
to attract a surprisingly large number of theorists from the
real to the surreal.
    Frankly, my instincts say "Caution."
    To find out more about "Will" Alexander, Google
this search term: "hydrometeorological data WJR Alexander"
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&safe=off&q=hydrometeorological+data+WJR+Alexander
    He is a cantankerous contrarian, but when is that news?
In his previous publications, he makes no mention of the
physical cause of the cycles he observes and says that he
leaves that to others. Apparently, he's come up a physical
cause now. He is aggressively anti-Global Warming.

    Before leaping into the whole question of Solar Variability,
take a look at what the heck you're getting into:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation

> Now to return to meteorites, do we have a track of
> sunspot activity in 44Ti?

    Yes, we do.
    But, not an independent, absolute measure. The
cosmic rays that generate the 44Ti only penetrate so far
into the body of the meteoroid, so the amounts of 44Ti
have to be "scaled" up to match a curve of the modulation
parameter (which = magnetic field which = sunspot number).
    As long as they're scaled up consistently and match,
good. They do. But it's supporting evidence to a sunspot
number model, not an independent determination of solar
activity. Any systemic error would vanish in the "scaling."

Sterling K. Webb
-------------------------------------------------------------------
----- Original Message -----
From: "E.P. Grondine" <epgrondine_at_yahoo.com>
To: <meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Sent: Thursday, September 28, 2006 9:44 PM
Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Meteorites Used To Study Solar Activity
ATLAST!!!


> Hi Sterling -
>
> My guess for the puzzle's answer:
>
> Most likely, the change in solar radiation changes the
> Earth's ozone level, which in traps more IR. Sort of
> like the doped layer of a transistor - a small change
> in the Sun's radiation leads to a big change in
> temperature.
>
> A South African meteorologist has noted that sunspot
> activity varies with the relation of our Sun to our
> solar systems center of gravity. This improves on Timo
> Niroma observation that tied sunspots to Jupiter's
> gravity.
>
> Fr. Ricardo of Santa Clara noticed the correlation
> between sunspot activity and weather back at the turn
> of the century.
>
> Now to return to meteorites, do we have a track of
> sunspot activity in 44Ti?
>
> good hunting,
> Ed
>
> --- "Sterling K. Webb" <sterling_k_webb_at_sbcglobal.net>
> wrote:
>
>> Hi, Katsuhito, List,
>>
>> Thanks for the accessible link!
>>
>> It would seem that what he wishes to correlate
>> 44Ti
>> with is the "heliospheric modulation parameter."
>> After
>> scurrying to Google, I discover that it is
>> apparently an
>> arbitrary coefficient that reflects the ability of
>> the Sun's
>> heliosphere to deflect, stop, slow and otherwise
>> prevent
>> cosmic rays from reaching the Earth's surface.
>>
>> It is believed to relate directly to the
>> strength of the
>> Sun's magnetc field, which in turn relates directly
>> to
>> the sunspot number. Solar modulation changes
>> galactic
>> cosmic ray intensities at low energies by up to an
>> order
>> of magnitude between the solar minimum and the solar
>> maximum.
>>
>> The modulation parameter is determined by
>> largely
>> empirical means (balloon flight measurements) and
>> "ignores a lot of physics which could be important,"
>> says one scientist, like the tilt of the magnetic
>> field.
>> But it does seem to work well.
>>
>> The half life of 44Ti is only 86 years, so if
>> you tested
>> a meteorite that fell in 1146 AD, less than one
>> thousandth
>> of the 44Ti would be left. In a fall from 286 AD,
>> less than
>> one millionth. Still, it would be interesting if
>> they could
>> extend the study back in time.
>>
>> Global warmists tend to discount the intense
>> warming
>> eposode between 900 AD and 1200 AD. They even cast
>> doubt on the "Little Ice Age" of 1400 to 1700 AD.
>> Anyone
>> know of a 450 year old or a 950 year old fall?
>>
>> Usoskin is primarily interested in determining
>> which
>> sunspot model number fits reality and the GSN model
>> (whatever that is) clearly does. What I note with
>> interest
>> is the equally good fit of the sunspot number models
>> to the
>> neutron flux. The most usual end product of cosmic
>> rays
>> slashing into the atmosphere is neutrons.
>>
>> Here we've been measuring the Sun's entire
>> energy
>> output bolometrically for a century or so, and it
>> obviously
>> doesn't change enough to account for warming or
>> cooling
>> on the scale that happens over the long term. But,
>> what if,
>> what if tiny modulations in the heliosphere have a
>> biggish
>> effect on how many neutrons get to punch down into
>> the
>> Earth's lower atmosphere and that result largely
>> determines
>> what the amount of cloud cover for the planet will
>> be?
>>
>> 1,674,900,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
>> neutrons
>> weigh in at one gram, so perhaps a mass only equal
>> to
>> that of a feather (or a small rock), properly
>> applied over
>> time, has the power to turn the planet's thermostat
>> up or
>> down 5 or 10 degrees! It would, by any reckoning, be
>> a
>> very tiny finger on that thermostat.
>>
>> It would be so clever of the Universe to do
>> that.
>>
>> One of the interesting features of a neutron
>> moderated
>> climate model would be the asymmetry of its function
>> in
>> cold vs. warm regimes. In an Ice Age, evaporation is
>> greatly
>> reduced and much of the water is tied up in ice; it
>> is a very
>> dry time. Pelt the Earth with neutrons all you want,
>> but it's
>> hard to form many new clouds in such arid
>> conditions, so
>> the Ice Age can cool the planet unopposed.
>>
>> In a Greenhouse Age, however, the Earth would
>> become
>> very much more sensitive to cooling moderated by
>> neutron
>> flux induced cloud cover. With high evaporation
>> rates, high
>> sea levels, and high humidity, neutrons would be in
>> control
>> of the planet's albedo, and "cap" the possible
>> increase in
>> temperature.
>>
>> The GCM's (Global Climate Models), which have
>> clouds
>> driven only by heat and evaporation, have this
>> tendency to
>> diverge into runaway greenhouse heating (like
>> Venus), but
>> the reality is that for many long Greenhouse Ages,
>> the Earth's
>> mean temperature always stabilizes around 22 degrees
>> C.
>> and stays there for tens of millions of years
>> (except for one
>> short nasty hot spell at the end of the Permian).
>> For at least
>> the last half billion years, that's the way it's
>> been: no runaway
>> greenhouses.
>>
>>
>> Sterling K. Webb
>>
> -----------------------------------------------------
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: "K. Ohtsuka" <ohtsuka_at_jb3.so-net.ne.jp>
>> To: "Meteorite Mailing List"
>> <meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com>
>> Sent: Thursday, September 28, 2006 6:54 AM
>> Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Meteorites Used To
>> Study Solar Activity
>> ATLAST!!!
>>
>>
>> > Hello list members,
>> >
>> > see the following link,
>> >
>> >
>>
> http://www.aanda.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=181&Itemid=42&lang=en
>> >
>> > where you can download the PDF file of the A&A
>> letter.
>> >
>> > Katsuhito O.
>> > Tokyo, JAPAN
>> >
>> >
>> > ----- Original Message -----
>> > From: "Rob McCafferty" <rob_mccafferty_at_yahoo.com>
>> > To: <meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com>
>> > Sent: Thursday, September 28, 2006 7:00 AM
>> > Subject: [meteorite-list] Meteorites Used To Study
>> Solar Activity AT
>> > LAST!!!
>> >
>> >
>> >> Hi all
>> >>
>> >> This phenomena of cosmic ray alteration of
>> isotope
>> >> concentration has been known to me for a long
>> while.
>> >>
>> >> As solar activity increases, it deflects the
>> cosmic
>> >> rays which reduces the effect of cosmic rays.
>> >>
>> >> On earth, one of it's best effects is altering
>> the
>> >> amount of Carbon 14 (C14) prodced during periods
>> of
>> >> high solar activity. C14 has a known half-life of
>> >> approx 5800 years and is created constantly so
>> all
>> >> things once living have a known amount of it.
>> Once
>> >> they die, this proportion decreases.
>> >>
>> >> Less well known is that year on year, the
>> proportion
>> >> of C12/C14 changes according to solar activity.
>> >> Correction factors have to be made in carbon
>> dating.
>> >>
>> >> Individual tree rings can be measured for actual
>> vs
>> >> predicted C12/C14 ratios and a picture of solar
>> >> activity can be build up.
>> >>
>> >> This method shows several things
>> >>
>> >> Tree rings from 1640 to 1710 show a big increase
>> in
>> >> C14 vs predicted signifying a low solar activity.
>> This
>> >> roughly corresponds to a period of low
>> temperature.
>> >> The Thames in London used to freeze each winter
>> and
>> >> was so thick fairs could be held on the ice.
>> >>
>> >> It suggests that in Roman times, temperatures
>> were
>> >> even warmer than today. Grapes can only be grown
>> in
>> >> south east England today. Back then they could be
>> >> grown North of York.
>> >>
>> >> It also suggests a general increase in solar
>> activity
>> >> over the last few hundred years, since the
>> Maunder
>> >> minimum, in fact. We're on a rise now,
>> apparently.
>> >>
>> >> If meteorites are also showing this trend, some
>> >> credence must be give to the "The Human Race is a
>> >> bunch of arrogant idiots who think they are more
>> >> influential in the Grand Scheme of Things than
>> they
>> >> really are" school of thought which I aspire to
>> >> ascribe.
>> >>
>> >> Equally, I suggest that this blip in the epochs
>> of
>> >> time should be a timely reminder not to mess with
>> >> things too much as we really have no idea how
>> much
>> >> influence we really have.
>> >>
>> >> Just my thoughts for the subject.
>> >>
>> >> (DISCLAIMER: this post was not sponsored by
>> >> Shell/BP/XXon/FINA/Texaco or any other petrolium
>> >> industry, etc. The author cannot discount the
>> >> possibility that the original meteorite study may
>> have
>> >> been. He would like to distance himself from any
>> >> suggestions to that effect....
>> >>
>> >> I think that puts me in the clear)
>> >>
>> >> Anon (just in case)
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> --- "Matson, Robert" <ROBERT.D.MATSON_at_saic.com>
>> wrote:
>> >>
>> >> > Hi All,
>> >> >
>> >> > Who'da thunk that global warming could become
>> an
>> >> > on-topic
>> >> > subject for the meteorite list?! --Rob
>> >> >
>> >> > -----Original Message-----
>> >> > From:
>> meteorite-list-bounces_at_meteoritecentral.com
>> >> >
>> [mailto:meteorite-list-bounces_at_meteoritecentral.com]
>> >> > On Behalf Of Ron
>> >> > Baalke
>> >> > Sent: Tuesday, September 26, 2006 2:15 PM
>> >> > To: Meteorite Mailing List
>> >> > Subject: [meteorite-list] Meteorites Used To
>> Study
>> >> > Solar Activity
>> >> >
>> >> >
>> >>
>>
> http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/view.php?StoryID=20060926-015940-3936r
>> >> >
>> >> > Meteorites used to study solar activity
>> >> > UPI
>> >> > September 26, 2006
>> >> >
>> >> > OULU, Finland (UPI) -- A Finnish-led
>> international
>> >> > team has used
>> >> > meteorites to investigate the sun's solar
>> activity
>> >> > of past centuries.
>> >> >
>> >> > Ilya Usoskin at Finland's Sodankyla Geophysical
>> >> > Observatory and
>> >> > colleagues compared the amount of Titanium 44
>> in 19
>> >> > meteorites that have
>> >> > fallen to the Earth the past 240 years. They
>> said
>> >> > their findings confirm
>> >> > that solar activity increased strongly during
>> the
>> >> > 20th century. They
>> >> > also find the sun has been particularly active
>> >> > during the past few
>> >> > decades.
>> >> >
>> >> > The scientists say studying the sun's activity
>> is
>> >> > one of the oldest
>> >> > astrophysical projects, as astronomers began
>> >> > recording the number of
>> >> > sunspots to trace the sun's magnetic activity
>> 400
>> >> > years ago.
>> >> >
>> >> > The team examined a set of 19 meteorites whose
>> dates
>> >> > of fall are
>> >> > precisely known, measuring the amount of
>> radioactive
>> >> > isotope Titanium 44
>> >> > in each meteorite. Titanium 44 is produced by
>> the
>> >> > cosmic rays in the
>> >> > meteorites while they are outside the Earth's
>> >> > atmosphere. After the
>> >> > meteorite has fallen, it stops producing the
>> >> > isotope.
>> >> >
>> >> > By measuring the Titanium 44 in the meteorites,
>> the
>> >> > scientists
>> >> > determined the level of solar activity at the
>> time
>> >> > the meteorite fell.
>> >> >
>> >> > The study appears in the journal Astronomy &
>> >> > Astrophysics Letters.
>>
>>
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Received on Fri 29 Sep 2006 02:33:51 AM PDT


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