[meteorite-list] Murchison Price Difference

From: MexicoDoug <MexicoDoug_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Thu Oct 5 18:13:58 2006
Message-ID: <008301c6e8cb$46b35200$f2068cc9_at_0019110394>

"but just imagine that the number of collectors might double in a
few years, and then again double in a few years more, etc., and all those
tiny "stocks" we have now will be a drop lost in an ocean."

Hi Norbert, Martin oweh and friends,

The only objection to that scenario is that meteorites have extremely
elastic demand.

I really believe that some combination of all of our scenarios and much more
will shake out during the evolution we are all shaping. Not trying to be
negative - and not rejecting Martin's scenarios, just rounding them out from
the typical hype we love to share with each other.

I just try to look at the "big picture", even though I don't have a Harvard
degree. To keep in mind that as meteorites get more expensive, they plummet
after smashing against a demand wall. Collecting just isn't as widespread
when new collectors need microscopes to see many of their pieces and can't
put them in big cabinets and displays. So, rather than pick up those
collectors on the margin, you just as well can lose them. There is a finite
amount of material available - it works both ways. People loose interest as
well ... as the economies that go bust. I don't think any number of German
Buyers on eBay will remedy their perceptions which just seem to breed
familiarity with the drill ...

As for behavior and thought that a Moonbase is just a pipe dream far
off...you did mention the ISS. Human psyche is so adaptable...sometimes
sadly. The ISS is an incredible project, but has a fallen image, victimized
by politicians, war, and beaurocracy.

If only the world could take a moment out of its busy rotating schedule and
revel a bit on the magnitude of this accomplishment, misguided as it may
seem to some. The ISS is truly our first Castle in the Sky. That's not in
the writing, though.

But do look at the situation. Familiarity - taking the technology for
granted - and it is on the back burner. That is a stark parallel to
people's behavior toward meteorites as the "OOOOh-AAAhhh" effect cools off.
Then functionally is sought.

The ISS really is more than the half way point of difficulty and is what 10
years in the making? How easy this will be from the ISS to the Moon...
Japan's Hayabusa mission was no random event for an island strapped for
resources and hungry for advancement. Now behemoth Orion rocket contracts
are awarded and private industry doesn't joke when it designs the Spaceport
in New Mexico. Here is where we are in different thoughts. I have every
intention of seeing you at the Luna Hilton, within 25 years, or in my case
at the Luna Youth Hostel, on the lunar floor in my high tech sleeping bag.
I'll be willing to give up meteorite collecting and all of my investment
into it in a heartbeat, for that opportunity.

If I have a weight limit, I'll just not eat while I am there, and on the way
back, I'll leave my 2kg of disposable clothing there and come back in a
Speedo or diapers packed with Moondust if I can. All of such samples thus
returned will be essentially free - fronted-err... piggybacked, and returned
after journeys serving a higher purpose. Plenty of this material will
eventually make it to eBay, fakes, reals and all.

The technology wasn't here when Kennedy set priorities and twelve years
later enough round trips were made to have built a Moonbase by 1972.

China is here to stay and hungry for her strategic place on the Moon. That
will remind Europe and the USA, not to mention India and Russia, that they
USA's Apollo program is yesterday's news and yesterday's crowning dominance.
The secrets to defense and resources are their future. It is no longer a
science fiction scenario alone ... it is an issue of strategic initiative by
the "have nots" and desire to have the glory we've seen squandered by able
nations. Just wait until China demonstrates she has the technology to put
her first man on the Moon. I assure you the Orion rockets and ISS will have
their work cut out for them within 20 years, if private industry don't
surpass them in the meantime - which it increasingly positioning itself to
do...

Hasta la Luna,
Doug



----- Original Message -----
From: "Norbert Classen" <trifid_at_timewarp.de>
To: <meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Sent: Thursday, October 05, 2006 3:40 PM
Subject: AW: [meteorite-list] Murchison Price Difference


> Doug wrote:
>
> > In 20 years a Moon Colony will be established...
>
> Hi Doug, and All,
>
> 20 years ago a lot of people believed: "In 20 years a Mars Colony will be
> established..." In Kubrick's 2001 we even made it to Jupiter, and its moon
> Europa in a shorter period of time. And look at where we are now - they
> (ESA, NASA, etc.) are even having big troubles in getting the ISS ready
> until 2010, not to speak about returning to the Moon :-(
>
> Don't get me wrong, I'd be the first to book a room in the Luna Hilton,
and
> I perfectly agree that our future is out there... I'm just trying to be a
> bit more realistic ,-)
>
> > Just a few thoughts on the future from our snapshot in time.
> > And before ideologies change and we catch up to it...
>
> Yeap, ideologies and paradigms change pretty fast, these days... But, to
> come back to meteorites, I believe Martin is right - meteorites are a
> non-renewable resource. Maybe they might be recycleable up to some point,
as
> you say, but just imagine that the number of collectors might double in a
> few years, and then again double in a few years more, etc., and all those
> tiny "stocks" we have now will be a drop lost in an ocean.
>
> Exponentially yours,
> Norbert
>
>
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Received on Thu 05 Oct 2006 06:11:55 PM PDT