[meteorite-list] 73P in 2022?

From: Rob Matson <mojave_meteorites_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Mon Oct 2 00:58:52 2006
Message-ID: <GOEDJOCBMMEHLEFDHGMMEEAODAAA.mojave_meteorites_at_cox.net>

Hi Ed,

Finally getting back to you on the subject of 73P's return
at the end of May in 2022.

> Aside from the recent bolides, and the several hundred
> pound TNT equivalent hit at Troms, Norway, there appear to
> have been hits by large SW3 fragments at Rio Curaca, Brazil,
> 1930, 10 August, and Rupununi, British Guiana 1935, 11 December.

I haven't researched the 1930 or 1935 possibilities you mention
above, but the connection between the Troms, Norway event and 73P
has some problems. That Norway bolide occurred at ~2:05am local
time on June 7th (~12:05am GMT). Earth was not near any of the
nodal crossing points in 2006: see figure 5 on page 6 of the
following PDF link (which is page 643) and note that earth's
closest approach to any meteoroids ejected from SW3 in prior
years (going back to 1801) was on May 31 at a distance of at
least 0.04 a.u. (~3.7 million miles):

http://aquarid.physics.uwo.ca/%7Epbrown/taus.pdf

By June 7th, the distance was more than double that. I will
concede that at least the tau Herculid radiant was high in
the southwest at the time of the bolide -- in the vicinity of
delta Bootis (which was more than 50 degrees above azimuth
240 degrees). This location is in roughly the same quadrant
of the sky from which the Troms bolide appears to have come.

The 2022 nodal crossing looks much more promising for a minor
meteor shower (though nothing spectacular according to P.A.
Wiegert). Keep in mind that we're talking about comet dust
here -- not meteoroids. Other than whatever large SW3 fragments
following the 2006 breakup still remain in 2022, I would expect
its dust cloud to be about as survivable as that of any other
short-period comet: i.e. not very. (Aren't too many samples
of Swift-Tuttle, Temple-Tuttle, Halley or 3200 Phaethon in our
meteorite collections!)

Cheers,
Rob
Received on Mon 02 Oct 2006 12:58:49 AM PDT