AW: [meteorite-list] Re: 13.5 kg lunar

From: Michael Fowler <mqfowler_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Sun May 15 13:51:55 2005
Message-ID: <6ef5015a4ac8d572fef41ac6fdf6d14a_at_mac.com>

> On Sat, 14 May 2005 17:03:53 -0700, "Adam Hupe" <raremeteorites at
> comcast.net> wrote:
>
> >That's ridiculous, Lunar material brought back from the moon would
> baseline
> >at more than $5,000.00 a gram. Anything less is not feasible because
> the
> >costs are tremendous and have already been calculated.
>
> Adam

One should be very careful about making dogmatic statements about what
will never be technically or financially possible in the future! Quite
possibly 100 years in the future, the cost of a package to or form the
moon may be little more in comparison to our income then, than the cost
of getting one banana from Ecuador to the USA was in comparison to the
income of Americans 150 years ago. I've observed in my lifetime that
the optimists have always been more right than the pessimists!
>

> Oh, maybe in the near future (I just used the 20 year figure because
> that is what the original
> poster used) but I refuse to believe that, for an established lunar
> mining colony launching material
> from the surface of the moon under the Moon's 1/6th g using lunar
> construction materials and lunar
> fuel, the price will always be in the thousands of dollars per gram
> range. I'm not talking about a
> simple sample return mission, here.
>
> Darren

Read Heinleins " The Moon is a Harsh Mistress" a classic SF story in
which a rail gun catapult plays a crucial part.

Certainly, if we have a lunar colony and there is enough commerce to
justify such a rail gun, the cost of transport from the moon to earth
will be reduced by more than a factor of 1000. Even before then,
colonists, astronauts, scientists, or tourists will have a personal
allowance of one or two kilos for personal effects. Who's to say that
they won't choose to leave behind their underwear, toothpaste, shaving
cream etc. and use their personal allowance to bring back moon rocks
instead. I would.

Perhaps one day moon rocks from the moon will be much less valuable
than lunar meteorites found on earth. Difference in rarity.

I for one have held back a little on purchasing a lunar specimen,
because in the back of my mind I feel that there may be a better offer
to come.
After the 20? or so specimens have been found in Dhofar (such a small
region) who is to say how many more my turn up elsewhere. The 13.5
kilo one from the Kalahari may be the tip of the iceberg.

Remember, not so long ago it was calculated that it was impossible to
eject rocks from Mars without vaporizing them. Once Martian meteorites
were confirmed, the calculations were redone to match the reality.
Like wise with lunar meteorites, since all finds have been very small.
it was thought that lunar meteorites must be limited to small sizes.
Now that we have a 13.5 kg specimen, who is to say that we may not find
even bigger ones. The next big one may not be retained by the finder.
If one of that size was cut up and distributed, I'm sure the price
would fall below Martians, or perhaps to $100 a gram. At least then I
could afford a 10 or 20 gram slice!

Also the US government has about 794 kg of lunar rocks from the Apollo
missions. Who is to say that 10 or 20 kilos might not be released to
the market someday. Perhaps somewhat like the hoard of Carson City
Silver dollars that were discovered and sold to collectors in 1980.

A maxim of warfare is to ask not what is the intentions of your enemy
but rather what are his capabilities. NASA may have no intention of
ever selling those moon rocks, but they are there, and it could happen.

I for one am not buying meteorites to make a quick profit, but would
indeed feel foolish, or worse if I bought one only to find that I could
buy the same thing the next month for only a fraction of what I paid
then. That happened to me once and I am older and wiser now. I
purchased a Park Forest slice for about $30 a gram. You know the rest.

My various random thoughts about lunar meteorites.

Mike Fowler
Chicago
Received on Sun 15 May 2005 09:05:30 AM PDT