[meteorite-list] Astronomers Gear Up for Historic Asteroid Passin 2029 (99942 Apophis)

From: mark ford <markf_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Wed Aug 24 03:42:08 2005
Message-ID: <6CE3EEEFE92F4B4085B0E086B2941B313B3199_at_s-southern01.s-southern.com>

Hi Eric,

I'm 100% with you there! Well said that man. And it shouldn't be left to
NASA either, we all have a responsibility on this and the ESA is just as
complacent IMHO.

Everyone also assumes that it will be one single nice round neat
asteroid that will hit us at some point (and one will hit us at some
point, that is certain!), what about if it is a shoemaker-Levy-9
scenario where the numerous cometry debris is spread out over several
thousand clicks? We would need many spacecraft to divert the debris even
if we could!!

It makes me laugh they are quite happy to ban lead in electronics or put
fences near cliff edges in case someone hurts themselves, but when it
comes to complete global annihilation of billions of people and
destruction of most of life on earth, then they all turn into Ostriches,
and put their heads well in the sand, - well my friends one day that
sand will turn into tektites!!


Mark Ford









-----Original Message-----
From: star-bits_at_comcast.net [mailto:star-bits@comcast.net]
Sent: Monday, August 22, 2005 11:37 PM
To: meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com
Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Astronomers Gear Up for Historic Asteroid
Passin 2029 (99942 Apophis)

<"It's not gonna knock your socks off, and it certainly won't be the
brightest object in the sky, but it'll be easily observable with the
naked eye, " said Don Yeomans, manager of NASA's Near Earth Object
(NEO) Program........Yeomans said scientists should be able
to conclude with 99.8 percent accuracy whether a future impact scenario
can be ruled out and he believes we should therefore wait before
launching a mission that could cost hundreds of millions of dollars.

Until then, Yeomans says he won't be losing sleep over Apophis.

"It's an interesting object and it's raised some interesting issues, but
a worrisome threat? No," said Yeomans. "We've got plenty of time.">



    It is just this sort of cavalier attitude that makes me wish the
next asteroid found will be 100% dead on target to impact earth. Until
that happens bureaucrats like Yeomans will have no incentive to do
anything about diverting impactors. "Hey no problem it is years away,
long after I am retired." When the next impactor is discovered 6 months
or 9 months or 1 year out there will be little time for anything except
the finger pointing.

<"You don't have to change the course of the comet very much to miss the
keyhole if you do it a number of years in advance," said Clark Chapman,>

And the converse of that is that you don't have to change the course
much to get an impact either, a bank shot off another small asteroid
might do or a close approach to a larger one.

I am not paranoid and think a large impact in my lifetime is unlikely.
However I am amazed that the US government can spend $2 million on a
heated bus stop in Alaska, or $15-$20 Billion on farm subsidies, etc,
etc and almost nothing on NEO detection and absolutely nothing on
impactor diversion. SOHO just discovered its 1000th comet with 900 of
them found in just the last 5 years. The longest lead time on a comet
is what - 9 months? The government can't scratch it own ass in 9
months let alone mount a diversion program. I believe we have the
technical capability but that the government, all governments, are
totally lacking in the will to do anything. Only an imminent impact
will change that. I just hope it is an asteroid 10-20 years out and not
a comet 9 months out.

I will step off my soapbox now, take a deep breath and return to calm
obscurity.

--
Eric Olson
ELKK Meteorites
http://www.star-bits.com
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Received on Wed 24 Aug 2005 03:40:54 AM PDT