[meteorite-list] Re: New Asteroid Threat Seen (Asteroid 2003 QQ47)

From: Bob Martino <martino.6_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Thu Apr 22 10:29:50 2004
Message-ID: <006b01c372a1$808b74b0$0300000a_at_TheMonolith>

No, no, no, no, no.

Sorry, Pekka, but I must stand up now for my OTHER fraternal group, the
Astronomical Community.

It is not true that astronomers said an asteroid WOULD hit earth in the next
ten years. They said that it MAY hit earth. A very big difference and not a
subtle one either. Yet the press and the general public seems to be unable
to grasp the difference. This is nothing AT ALL like a hoax! It is the
simple
presentation of facts to a public that has trouble reading an English
sentence
and extracting the plain, simple meaning.

Every few years we see another "Killer Asteroid" story in the press. Each
and every time a reputable astronomer said what was EXACTLY THE TRUTH, only
to be misquoted and distorted by the media.

I remember a particular instance that was perhaps 3 or 4 years ago. The
orbital data indicated that in a few years the asteroid would pass
particularly close to Earth. In fact, the uncertainty of the measurements to
date placed Earth within the possible orbital path (i.e. collision was
POSSIBLE). The press went nuts. Very soon thereafter, additional data was
uncovered because the asteroid in question had been inadvertently imaged
about 10 years earlier. With this additional data point the uncertainty of
the orbit shrank and there was shown to be no possibility of collision. The
astronomer was VILIFIED in the press for "crying wolf", even though he had
done no such thing. (It was the PRESS that cried wolf, but of course they
wouldn't vilify themselves, would they?) What the astronomer did was exactly
the correct thing to do. He published his PRELIMINARY results, and asked for
more data. When more data became available, he re-worked the calculations
and published updated orbital elements with more precise error bars. For
this he was raked over the coals by newspaper reporters who wouldn't know an
asteroid from their own..... well, you get the idea.

As former Assistant Director of a semi-public observatory, I have had a
great deal of experience in dealing with the little "brush fires" created
when a scientifically illiterate press tells astronomical stories to an even
more scientifically illiterate general public. (No, sorry, Mars WILL NOT
appear as big as the full Moon tonight !!) In fact, every time I read a
story in the press about a subject that I know something about (Physics,
Astronomy, Mathematics, Meteoritics) 80% of the time I find glaring factual
errors.

Which makes me very careful when I read a story about what's happening in
places like Iraq...

-----
Bob Martino, Tucson, AZ

Can you really name a star? Read the Truth!
http://home.columbus.rr.com/starfaq/
.

> Message: 7
> Date: Wed, 03 Sep 2003 20:23:43 +0300
> From: Pekka Savolainen <pekka.savolainen_at_dlc.fi>
> To: tracy latimer <daistiho_at_hotmail.com>
> Cc: meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com
> Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] New Asteroid Threat Seen (Asteroid 2003
QQ47)
>
>
> Hello, all,
>
> well, I have my own opinions about the british astronomers. Not an
> year ago they told, and asteroid will hit earth in next 10 years. At least
> one TV-channell here was ignorant enough to publish this. Itīs not very
> nice to try to explain to your 8-years, that itīs just a hoax. NASA made
> a correction to aslo this next day.
>
> Itīs sure, the press and the news (particulary british) will publish
> everything,
> if astro-somebody is willing to paint some global catastrophes. Think
> this is
> more serious problem than all hoaxes with meteorites and geo-somethings
> from the local high schools. So NASA and also others have a lot to do...
>
> So great work, Ron, thank you for that.
>
> take care,
>
> pekka
>
Received on Thu 04 Sep 2003 01:00:41 AM PDT