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Planet Defense

CAN WE EVER DEFEND THE PLANET FROM NEO IMPACTS?

The short but true answer is yes and no? At this point in our knowledge of
near Earth objects survey the truthful and simple answer is NO we can not
defend the planet from impacts. YES if certain guidelines are met. The most
important item we need to have in order to defend the planet  is lead time
and lots of it.  First we need to detect an object heading toward impact
with Earth in enough lead time to address the problem which is not so
simple to do either.  At this time it is unlikely with all our telescopes,
CCD cameras, radars and instruments on and off the planet that we would be
able to detect an incoming large or small object in time to do something
about it. Preventing impact would take a tremendous amount of hard work and
luck. There is just too many objects, even in near Earth space that the
scientist have not detected and recorded yet. If Earth is impacted the most
likely source of impact will be from the 100’s of thousands (some say
millions) of near Earth Asteroids and Comets. But Scientist have another
problem,  large and small objects can come out of nowhere from the billions
and billions of objects beyond near Earth space to impact us from such
known areas as the Oort cloud or Kuiper belt in the far reaches of our
solar system. This would be a very daunting and impossible task to survey
every object in the solar system. What I am driving at is that Earth can
never ever be 100% safe from impact even after all our surveys are done,
all our detection systems are in place and defenses are ready, armed and in
place.  Lets get real. That being said, how safe are we now. Today we are
pretty much at the mercy of mathematical probability laws and random
impacts can hit Earth at will.  Earth is a target of opportunity so to
speak.
In fact, there are small objects hitting the planet every day and larger
objects like large bolides every week which we can not detect except as
they explode in our atmosphere.  Recent bright meteors like El Paso, Texas,
USA a few months ago,  Greenland last month and Denver, Colorado USA
recently should tell us something about Earth’s ability to detect early
warning of object hitting Earth.  El Paso and Denver are in the backyard of
the USA’s space defense and ICBM early warning systems main nerve center. 
Make not mistake about it, any of these bright meteors could have been the
size of Mount Everest and we would have received the same amount of early
warning - none.

The move from at the mercy of impact to 100% safe is an infinite task and
impossible but within a few decades of survey of Near Earth objects we can
go a long way toward the 100% since near Earth asteroids is the most
probable source of very large impacts with Earth. We must also realize that
finding an object during a survey which will impact Earth at sometime in
the future is a long way from declaring victory. Can we divert such an
object from impact ?  Here too the answer is yes and no.  If the asteroid
or comet is very large say 20 kilometers or better with a few months lead
time before impact chance of a successful diversion is zero.
This is of cause the realistic answer but mankind ability at self deception
is infinite and most likely every effort would go into trying to divert
such an object or any object should Earth get any lead time at all of
impending impact.  God speed John Glenn.

Realistically though, today we would need years of lead time to engineer a
successful diversion of even a  kilometer and smaller asteroid or comet
heading at us.  These objects  are not slow movers usually going 37,000 mph
to 112,000 mph and better.  I am confident in such a situation a way will
be found.

Maybe actor Bruce Willis will show us the way to divert impacts in the new
movie coming out this week call “Armageddon”.


Victor D. Noto

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Victor Noto - Kissimmee, Florida USA
vnn2@phoenixat.com
http://www.phoenixat.com/~vnn2/BIGROCK.htm
Website theme quote:
"Life really is a Rock and 
the Big Rock giveth and taketh away all life!!" 
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