[meteorite-list] Tiangong-1 decay predictions

From: John Lutzon <jl_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Sun, 1 Apr 2018 15:07:42 -0400
Message-ID: <56BAB06A8A734E4D98BCDEDB02826104_at_Home>

Right now: its speed is 4.86mi/s, altitude 87.63 and orbit period
is 88mins.

At what altitude is a quess-timate for its final orbit to begin.
Will its speed increase or decrease? Which of these 3
catagories would indicate final decent?

Thanks, John

----- Original Message -----
From: "Matson, Rob D. via Meteorite-list" <meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com>
To: <meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com>
Sent: Sunday, April 01, 2018 2:31 PM
Subject: [meteorite-list] Tiangong-1 decay predictions


Hi All -- I sent this to one of my Yahoo groups and figured there would also be
interest here. Below are my favored orbital segments for the imminent reentry
of the Chinese space station Tiangong-1, based on the assumption that reentry
will occur on an ascending node near minimum satellite altitude (distinct from
perigee). That is not to say these are the only possible places for entry -- just
the ones that are favored based on the assumption that reentry will occur near
or shortly after the time of each orbit's minimum altitude.

Unfortunately, based on current predictions, reentry over the U.S. is not
possible (nor Australia or New Zealand). Asia, northern Africa and the Middle
East are the most likely land locations. Greece is the only country in Europe
with a pass during the decay window.

4/1/2018
22:00-22:02 Gulf of Aden
22:02-22:05 SE Yemen, Oman
22:05-22:06 Gulf of Oman
22:06-22:09 Pakistan
22:09-22:10 Jammu and Kashmir

23:22-23:24 Gabon, NW corner of Congo
23:24-23:27 SE corner of Cameroon, Central African Republic
23:27-23:31:30 Sudan
23:31:30-23:32 Red Sea
23:32-23:34:30 Saudi Arabia
23:34:30-23:35 Kuwait
23:35-23:38 Iran
23:38-23:39 Turkmenistan

4/2/2018
00:37-00:52 South Atlantic Ocean
00:52-00:53 Ivory Coast
00:53-00:54 Ghana
00:54-00:55 Northern Togo, northern Benin, SE corner of Burkina Faso
00:55-00:59 Niger
00:59-01:02 Extreme NW Chad, Libya
01:02-01:02:30 NW corner of Egypt
01:02:30-01:04:30 Eastern Mediterranean Sea
01:04:30-01:06 Syria, extreme SE Turkey
01:06-01:07:30 Extreme western Iran, southern Azerbaijan (passes just south of Baku)
01:07:30-01:08 Caspian Sea
01:08-01:09:30 Turkmenistan
01:09:30-01:10:30 South Kazakhstan

02:09:30-02:16 Brazil
02:16-02:23 Atlantic Ocean
02:23-02:23:30 NW Senegal
02:23:30-02:26 Mauritania
02:26-02:26:30 NW Mali
02:26:30-02:30 Algeria
02:30-02:31 Tunisia
02:31-02:33 Mediterranean Sea
02:33-02:34:30 Greece (NW of Athens), Aegean Sea
02:34:30-02:36 Northern Turkey (SW of Istanbul)
02:36-02:37:30 Black Sea
02:37-02:38 Georgia
02:38-02:38:30 Chechnya, Dagestan Republic
02:38:30-02:39 Caspian Sea
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Received on Sun 01 Apr 2018 03:07:42 PM PDT