[meteorite-list] Climate Change

From: Galactic Stone & Ironworks <meteoritemike_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Mon, 22 Sep 2014 12:39:58 -0400
Message-ID: <CAKBPJW8-_4=AxM_QVp8ez=Qav5u_Na1gsYNCHCo0m3iZy7_f_w_at_mail.gmail.com>


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On 9/22/14, BWFlowers via Meteorite-list
<meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com> wrote:
> Former Obama Official: Climate Change Not 'Settled' Science
> Sunday, 21 Sep 2014 06:11 PM
> By Sandy Fitzgerald
> A former high-ranking Obama administration official says climate science
> and
> the implications of global warming are not "settled," insisting such claims
> are "misguided" and stifle debate on the matter.
>  Writing a Page One story in the Wall Street Journal Weekend Review
> section,
> Dr. Steven Koonin argues that group think among experts has been inhibiting
> "the scientific and policy discussions that we need to have about our
> climate future."
>  Koonin, who served at the Energy Department as President Obama's
> undersecretary for science in the Energy Department, is director of the
> Center for Urban Science and Progress at New York University.
> Urgent:  Do You Approve Or Disapprove of President Obama's Job Performance?
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>  Koonin's position strikes a blow against climate change activists as
> People's Climate March organized demonstrations at more than 2,000
> locations
> worldwide.
>  In New York, tens of thousands participated in the demonstration demanding
> urgent steps against carbon emissions as the United Nation's General
> Assembly opened.
>  "We often hear that there is a 'scientific consensus' about climate
> change," writes Koonin.  "But as far as the computer models go, there isn't
> a useful consensus at the level of detail relevant to assessing human
> influences."
>  Koonin says his extensive training as a computational physicist with a
> 40-year career of scientific research and management, has given him an
> up-close knowledge of climate science.
>  "Detailed technical discussions during the past year with leading climate
> scientists have given me an even better sense of what we know, and don't
> know, about climate," writes Koonin.
>  The point, Koonin says, isn't whether the climate is changing, as "the
> climate has always changed and always will."
>  Further, he says, there is little doubt that humans are influencing
> climate
> change, as greenhouse gases, mainly from carbon-dioxide emissions, have had
> an effect.
>  But the main question remains about how the climate will change under both
> natural and man-made influences, which will affect energy and
> infrastructure
> choices.
>  "Those questions are the hardest ones to answer," writes Koonin.
>  However, Koonin adds, while humans can cause serious issues for the
> climate, "they are physically small in relation to the climate system as a
> whole," with additions to carbon dioxide to "directly shift the
> atmosphere's
> natural greenhouse effect by only 1% to 2%."
>  Other scientists have argued that the sun's solar activity has a much
> greater impact on earth temperatures that human activities.
>  Meanwhile, while the Earth's average surface temperature has risen by 0.9
> degree Fahrenheit over the last quarter of the 20th century, the increase
> has been much slower over the past 16 years, while the human contribution
> to
> carbon dioxide has gone up by 25 percent.
>  "Yet the models famously fail to capture this slowing in the temperature
> rise," says Koonin. "Several dozen different explanations for this failure
> have been offered, with ocean variability most likely playing a major role.
> But the whole episode continues to highlight the limits of our modeling."
>  Koonin says current global warming models have limitations. Many advocates
> of global warming dismiss or downplay contradictory data, he writes.
>  To this end, Koonin cites:
> .Models that show Arctic ice melting over the past 20 years forget to note
> the almost equal growth of ice across Antarctica, which he says is "now at
> a
> record high."
> .A prediction that the "lower atmosphere in the tropics will absorb much of
> the heat of the warming atmosphere" has not materialized.
> .The fact global sea levels in the first half of the 20th century rose at
> almost the same rate as today.
> .Climate sensitivity- "that is, the warming induced by a hypothetical
> doubling of carbon-dioxide concentration," he says is "no different, and no
> more certain" than it was 30 years ago.
> These, and many other factors that are still not decided will not allow
> lawmakers and the public to make a definite decision when it comes to
> climate change, he contends.
>  "But I fear that rigidly promulgating the idea that climate science is
> 'settled' (or is a 'hoax') demeans and chills the scientific enterprise,
> retarding its progress in these important matters, he writes.
>  "Uncertainty is a prime mover and motivator of science and must be faced
> head-on. It should not be confined to hushed sidebar conversations at
> academic conferences ...
>  "Any serious discussion of the changing climate must begin by
> acknowledging
> not only the scientific certainties but also the uncertainties, especially
> in projecting the future."
> http://www.Newsmax.com/Newsfront/climate-change-science/2014/09/21/id/595969
> /#ixzz3E3Sbd2Zf
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Received on Mon 22 Sep 2014 12:39:58 PM PDT

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