[meteorite-list] Possible that comet will hit mars next year!!!

From: Jodie Reynolds <spacerocks_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Wed, 27 Feb 2013 12:03:32 -0800
Message-ID: <1662613698.20130227120332_at_spaceballoon.org>

Hello Graham,

With the current orbit from the MPC, my simulation has it missing Mars by a little
over 700,000km, or about the same distance again from the MRO as MRO
is from Mars at its furthest (according to what I've read of its
altitude above the surface).

Of course, I think everyone is anxiously awaiting every update as we
get closer, to close the gap on uncertainty!

I've yet to be able to dig up orbital elements for MRO. By my
simulation, HST will be on the other side of the planet from closest
approach and its view will be occluded. I'd love to figure out where
MRO will be though - assuming that this first-blush ends-up being
anywhere close to reality, and MRO is in position to train its
instrumentation on C/2013 A1, and being the same distance from the
comet that it is from Mars, the science could be
_incredibly fortunate_, MRO "paying" for itself twice!

--- Jodie

Wednesday, February 27, 2013, 4:38:24 AM, you wrote:

> Has anyone come across this yet...unlikely....but would be quite an event?

> Just got this message from my nephew at Oxford Uni...

> "There is a (admittedly slight) chance that a recently discovered
> comet, C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring), might be on a collision course with
> Mars in October 2014. Latest observations certainly include an impact
> possibility within the range of error.

> If it hits, estimates suggest a 500km wide, 2km deep crater arising
> from a ~20 Petaton event. That's something like 4 million times the
> (estimated) explosive power of the current global nuclear arsenal.

> Would be interesting to watch and see if any of the rovers on the
> surface manage to survive such an impact (I would imagine only
> possibly Curiosity but keeping lines of communication open with it
> might prove difficult). Might make for (eventually, but not in our
> lifetimes) some interesting future Martian meteorites."

>
> http://www.universetoday.com/100298/is-a-comet-on-a-collision-course-with-mars/

> Graham
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-- 
Best regards,
 Jodie                            mailto:spacerocks at spaceballoon.org

Received on Wed 27 Feb 2013 03:03:32 PM PST