[meteorite-list] Russian meteor: Stefan Geens' research updates - part 5

From: Robin Whittle <rw_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Sun, 24 Feb 2013 13:46:21 +1100
Message-ID: <51297EFD.2030609_at_firstpr.com.au>

More from the email updates for Stefan Geens':

http://ogleearth.com/2013/02/reconstructing-the-chelyabinsk-meteors-path-with-google-earth-youtube-and-high-school-math/

followed by my rambling at the end.

People comment on the site but their comments are held in a moderation
queue and may only be visible to them (with a message about awaiting
moderation) until the message is approved by Stefan. For instance, I
wrote a comment about the location of the Emanzhelinsk video with a 90
sec shock wave delay. My comment hasn't yet appeared in the updates, or
I guess on the site itself, which has multiple pages for all the
comments. However, an email update did arrive since I sent this, based
on a comment which someone would have made earlier, giving the precise
location of the same video and a probably more accurate 89.5 second time
delay measurement.

As I already wrote to the list:

  http://www.webalice.it/mizar02/articoli/Meteorb.dat

    Electronic Telegram No. 3423
    Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams
    INTERNATIONAL ASTRONOMICAL UNION

    TRAJECTORY AND ORBIT OF THE CHELYABINSK SUPERBOLIDE
    Jiri Borovicka, Pavel Spurny, and Lukas Shrbeny, Astronomical
    Institute of the Academy of Sciences, Ondrejov, Czech Republic . .


Venus Explorer pointed to two very high resolution images of the fresh
smoke trail from an aircraft.

  I have found approximate position of photo from the plane

http://img-fotki.yandex.ru/get/4138/93431414.5b/0_a3d16_e6f01d1b_orig

  Coordinates: 55.571143677 N, 63.130811893 E, Altitude 11000, View
  Azimuth 223.52

  The another photo from plane without signs from

http://forums.airbase.ru/2013/02/t87595,16--padenie-meteorita-15-fevralya-2013-goda-na-urale.html#p3067641

  were made at approximately at 55.46314430, 62.614714374, Alt 10000,
  View Azimuth 228

If you click on the images from the airbase.ru page, and then use your
browser's zoom in command to expand the image to full resolution, you
will see one part of the smoke trail which has assumed something of a
mushroom cloud shape. Below this cloud, the rising hot air in the cloud
has brought in fresh cool air from below, so there is a vertical kink in
the smoke trail at this point. After this, to the west, the smoke trail
is smaller and shorter. So I guess the object really broke up at this
point, with some larger pieces continuing as in the videos I have
previously mentioned. I guess smaller bits of debris might slow down
very rapidly and fall almost vertically from a breakup like this.


Dmitry DD wrote:

    Serge, you can use this video from Troitsk, too:
    http://youtu.be/6TYV4EQvz2w Observation angle is measurable by
    object/shadow proportion, delay is about 5 minutes(!), detected
    by the first cam vibrations. Coordinates: 54?2?26.72?N,
    61?38?59.18?E.


Serge had already found the location of the Emanjelinsk video I
mentioned on the list:

    For ssvilponis sound map:

http://krasview.ru/video/342138-METEORIT_15_02_2013g_Chelyabinsk_Chel.obl._g.Emanjelinsk.

    The only video I could find south of the trajectory. It started at
    54.75587 N, 61.30517 E and unfortunately it was cut in the middle
    while the car was moving. I think at the end the car was parked
    facing NW at one of the building not that far away . . .

    I was confused by the lines on ssvilponis? sound map
    http://goo.gl/pNxPh After I found Pervomaysky video, I see the
    Yemanzelinks dashcam video is fine. The explosion was above
    Pervomaysky. BTW I assumed the flash on the video is at 6:23,
    windows destroyed at 7:22.5, delay is 89.5. Also while you say the
    Korkino delay is 88 while ssvilponis maps says 89. Hopefully
    whoever does the final calculations will rectify the
    discrepancies.


Steve wrote:

    For ssvilponis The Deputatskoye and Bereznyaki meteorites look real
    to me (amateur astronomer). It is very reasonable they are small
    pieces from the explosion south of Korkino blown south of the
    meteor path by winds. I think your landing zone should include
    them. Also, clearly from the videos, pieces landed all along the
    path before the vanishing point.

    I don?t know if there were meteorites found at Pustozerova, it is
    quite possible.

    I think the landing zone should extend from a little past Korkino
    to a little past Lake Chebarkul.



My rambling:

I don't know who "Serge" is, but he and "ssvilponis" are seriously on
the case. I am not investigating anything in detail though I enjoyed
tracking down the exact location of the Emanjelinsk video. There's an
Estonian eBay user "ssvilponis". There is a user "Sulev Svilponis" at
http://www.flickr.com/people/svilponis/. "ssvilponis" has maps regarding
the meteor:

https://maps.google.ee/maps/user?uid=216221265233140305376&hl=et&gl=ee

I guess that with all these videos the Columbian researchers Jorge I.
Zuluaga & Ignacio Ferrin will be able to narrow the uncertainties in
their trajectory and therefore work back with much greater accuracy to
the likely orbit the asteroid was on when it collided with Earth.


There are some striking circumstances here. Firstly, if the asteroid
had been on a very slightly different path, it could have missed the
Earth or plunged more steeply into the atmosphere. Most random
selections of the Earth's surface would not have been as highly
populated as this, or so well served by surveillance cameras and
dashboard security cameras. Some photos taken by proper hand-held
cameras are remarkable too:

  http://marateaman.livejournal.com/27910.html


http://forums.airbase.ru/2013/02/t87595,16--padenie-meteorita-15-fevralya-2013-goda-na-urale.html#p3067641

The asteroid's atmospheric entry occurred when many people were awake,
and moving around, but before there was bright sunlight. The sky was
clear and there was snow all around. It was quite a shallow trajectory
and so most of the energy was dissipated high up over several seconds,
rather than punching down low much faster and harder, with a more
concentrated atmospheric shock wave and, I guess, a greater and more
concentrated impact of one or probably many fragments on the surface.

Many people were injured by broken glass. There's no way we can protect
against this. It would not be surprising if blasts such as this caused
vehicle accidents or even train derailments. I guess an aircraft could
have its wings broken by a blast such as this from above.

There's no way an event as large as this could be so well observed
without there being many injuries and much damage. Hopefully there will
be no lasting disability from this. I haven't seen or looked for recent
reports on people recovering from injuries.

It has always been a philosophical position available in debates about
life in general that we never know when a meteorite will land on our
head and kill us. We would likely get little or no warning. Unless we
lived underground, we have to accept this as a risk of being alive.

Many of those who have been injured and terrorized by this meteor will
no-doubt have a less detached philosophical position on this than I
still do. I know the likelihood of this happening to anyone is very low
and has not been increased by recent events. It is much less than many
other methods of being killed or injured, such as an aircraft crashing,
or a car crash. Many people suffered physical and emotional pain and
injury from this meteor - and for some this burden will last for many
years. If it could happen once it could happen again, so how could
people really relax if they have been injured once by something like this?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Russian_meteor_event

  - Robin
Received on Sat 23 Feb 2013 09:46:21 PM PST