[meteorite-list] Science of Global Climate Modeling Confirmed byDiscoveries on Mars Cognitive Dissonance

From: almitt2 at localnet.com <almitt2_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Thu, 18 Oct 2012 23:04:45 -0400
Message-ID: <20121018230445.mt6ctvspzhsswkc4_at_webmail.localnet.com>

Hi Phil and all,

You mentioned other factors in your post but I'll include cycles in the
Sun also can have a big effect on weather as well as the ones you
mentioned.

Pretty hard to study something as old as the Earth system by observers
who are here only a very short span of that time. There have been many
heating up periods followed by colder cycles and probably will be for
eons.

AL Mitterling

Quoting dorifry <dorifry at embarqmail.com>:

> Astronomers concluded it was axis tilt behind Martian climate change, and
> then after the fact used computer models to predict what already happened.
>
> On Earth, human-generated carbon dioxide is assumed to be the main driver of
> climate change. Computer models that can't predict the weather for more than
> three days in advance were used to predict climate change hundreds of years
> into the future.
>
> Is one of these premises false?
>
> The Earth has been warming up for the last 18,000 years, possibly from
> astronomical factors such as orbital variation, axial tilt variation,
> Milankovitch cycles, etc.
>
> If this study really vindicated global climate modeling, wouldn't it have
> concluded the Earth's climate change is also due to changing astronomical
> factors?
>
> This seems like an obvious contradiction.
>
> Sorry for the double post!
>
> Phil Whitmer
> Joshua Tree Earth & Space Museum
>
>
> ----- Original Message ----- From: "Ron Baalke" <baalke at zagami.jpl.nasa.gov>
> To: "Meteorite Mailing List" <meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com>
> Sent: Wednesday, October 17, 2012 6:05 PM
> Subject: [meteorite-list] Science of Global Climate Modeling
> Confirmed byDiscoveries on Mars
>
>
>
>
> NEWS RELEASE FROM THE PLANETARY SCIENCE INSTITUTE
>
> FROM:
> Alan Fischer
> Public
> Information Officer
> Planetary Science Institute
> 520-382-0411
> 520-622-6300
> fischer at psi.edu
>
> Science of Global Climate Modeling Confirmed by Discoveries on Mars
>
> Oct. 16, 2012, Tucson, Ariz. and Reno, Nev. -- Scientific modeling methods
> that predicted climate change on Earth have been found to be accurate on Mars
> as well, according to a paper presented at an international planetary
> sciences conference Tuesday.
>
> An international team of researchers from the Planetary Science Institute in
> Tucson, working with French colleagues, found that an unusual
> concentration of
> glacial features on Mars matches predictions made by global climate
> computerized models, in terms of both age and location.
>
> PSI Senior Scientist William K. Hartmann led the team, which included
> Francois
> Forget (Universit?? Paris), who did the Martian climate modeling, and
> Veronique
> Ansan and Nicolas Mangold (Universit?? de Nantes) and Daniel Berman
> (PSI), all
> of who analyzed spacecraft measurements regarding the glaciers.
>
> "Some public figures imply that modeling of global climate change on Earth is
> 'junk science,' but if climate models can explain features observed on other
> planets, then the models must have at least some validity," said team leader
> Hartmann.
>
> Hartmann presented the report, "Science of Global Climate Modeling:
> Confirmation
> from Discoveries On Mars," at the annual meeting of the Division of Planetary
> Sciences of the American Astronomical Society in Reno, Nev.
>
> The scientific team reached their conclusions by combining four different
> aspects of Martian geological mapping and Martian climate science in recent
> years. They noted that the climate models, the presence of glaciers,
> the ages of the glacial surface layers, and radar confirmation of ice
> in same general area, all gave consistent results - that the glaciers
> formed in a specific region of Mars, due to unusual climate circumstances,
> just as indicated by the climate model.
>
> The work has a long background. As early 1993, astronomers analyzed
> the changing
> tilt of Mars' rotational axis and found that during high-tilt Martian
> episodes,
> the axis tilt can exceed 45 degrees. Under this extreme condition, the summer
> hemisphere is strongly tilted toward the sun, and Mars' polar ice cap in that
> hemisphere evaporates, increasing water vapor in the Martian air, thus
> increasing the chances for snowfall in the dark, cold, winter hemisphere.
> The last such episodes happened on Mars 5 million to 20 million years ago.
>
> By 2001-2006, various French and American researchers applied the
> global climate computer models to study this effect. The computer programs
> were originally developed for planet Earth to estimate climate effects,
> from hurricane paths to CO2 greenhouse warming. Planetary scientists simply
> applied the Martian topography, atmosphere, and gravity, in order to run
> the computer calculations for Mars. The calculations indicated a strong
> concentration of winter snow and ice in a mid-latitude southern region
> of Mars, just east of a huge Martian impact basin named Hellas.
>
> At the same time, the PSI scientists independently discovered an unusual
> concentration of glacial features in a 40-mile-wide crater named "Greg"
> centered in the same region. Their analysis showed that the surface layers
> of the glaciers formed at the same time as the predicted climate extremes,
> about 5 million to 20 million years ago.
>
> "The bottom line is that the global climate models indicate that the last
> few intense deposits of ice occurred about 5 million to 15 million years ago,
> virtually centered on Greg crater, and that's just where the spacecraft
> data reveal glaciers whose surface layers date from that time," Hartmann
> said. "If global climate models indicate specific concentration of ice-rich
> features where and when we actually see them on a distant planet, then
> climate modeling should not be sarcastically dismissed. Our results provide
> an important, teachable refutation of the attacks on climate science on our
> home planet."
>
>
> Images and maps supporting the paper are available at
> http://www.psi.edu/news/hartmanndps.html
>
> A web-based photo tour of Greg Crater is available at
> http://www.psi.edu/~hartmann/Greg_crater.html
>
>
>
> CONTACT:
> William
> K. Hartmann
> Senior Scientist
> hartmann at psi.edu
>
> PSI INFORMATION:
> Mark V.
> Sykes
> Director
> 520-622-6300
> sykes at psi.edu
>
>
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Received on Thu 18 Oct 2012 11:04:45 PM PDT