[meteorite-list] Space Radar?
From: Richard A. Kowalski <kowalski_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Thu, 14 Apr 2011 01:04:43 -0700 Message-ID: <4DA6AA9B.7000103_at_lpl.arizona.edu> On 4/13/2011 11:41 PM, Meteorites USA wrote: > How much is the Earth worth? ;) > > Eric Hey Eric. I know this was a bit of a rhetorical question, but I'll add a bit more to this discussion for those who may not be familiar with the topic. Unless I missed something, the United States is the only country funding NEO surveys at this time, so apparently the "worth" of the earth, as ascribed by the rest of the world is nothing, zip, nada. At least on this topic I think you're point is probably better formed by the question "How much is our civilization or species worth?" About one month ago we had a meeting here in Tucson consisting of representatives from all of the current major NEO surveys, professional follow up observatories, other associated parties and Lindley Johnson and Don Yeomans. Don may be familiar to some of you and he is the Manager of the NEO Program Office at JPL and Lindley is the Program Officer at NASA HQ. Lindley commented that as March 1st the estimated population of NEOs 1km in diameter and larger was estimated at 940 to 1050 objects. with a total of 6938 known NEOs of all sizes. At that time we had discovered 909 1km and larger NEOs, or approximately 87 - 97% of the population. Since we were tasked at finding 90% of all NEOs in this size range, we have effectively completed the original goal of the Spaceguard program, but he did stress that "we" aren't ready to make this claim just yet. To prove the point that we aren't quite finished, I picked up another 1km object on my very first run on a telescope after the meeting. As you know the 1km diameter was chosen because it is the size object that will end our civilization and anything much larger than that will make us go extinct. The next phase has not yet started, despite the claims in the media last yet that we are already failing behind in the task. Kinda confusing how anyone can claim we are behind in accomplishing a task that we haven't been given the go ahead to start, but we've recently seen you have to take the media with a grain or two of salt... Anyway, the new goal reduces the minimum size to 140 meters in diameter and this was chosen for a number of reasons, not the least of which is objects this size can cause substantial damage and death on national scales. If this next phase is funded, something not certain at the moment, it should take 10 to 15 years to complete as well. Of course again ground based surveys can do it with the lowest monetary expense, but at a cost of taking longer to accomplish the task. An important issue for issue for any ground based survey is that we are literally blinded by the Sun. Because of this we can't see objects that forever stay on the daylight side of our planet. To "see" in to this blind spot in our coverage will require a space based system, but not one that uses radar. A proposed IR telescope would the Sun not too far out from Venus, looking back towards the earth. This proposed mission would be able to detect all of these 140 meter objects that threaten us, but it would still require the use of ground based observatories for support and follow up observations, so it makes sense to build ground based systems first. It's been estimated that ground based systems would cost aa much as a 1/4 Gigabuck to build and operate for a decade or so, while the space based system alone would be at least 1/2 Gigabuck. Combine the two and figure on a bit of cost over-runs and $1,000,000,000 for all of Phase 2 spread over 10 or 15 years is not unreasonable. One final thing; A disclaimer. As I mentioned in a previous post, I am using my work email to post only because the list server barfed on my yahoo address earlier tonight. Nothing posted here is in any way an official statement from NASA, the University of Arizona, the Lunar and Planetary Laboratory or the Catalina Sky Survey. This and other posts are my own somewhat informed opinion and should in no way misconstrued as "official" in any way. -- Richard Kowalski Catalina Sky Survey Lunar and Planetary Laboratory University of Arizona http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/css/Received on Thu 14 Apr 2011 04:04:43 AM PDT |
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