[meteorite-list] OT: Listening To Fermi
From: JoshuaTreeMuseum <joshuatreemuseum_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2010 01:40:10 -0400 Message-ID: <2E2D96D287384D54B227A9CC07D58ADC_at_ET> Richard, With all the news reports of organic compounds on Mars and fossils in Martian meteorites I think the possibility of extraterrestrial life is very on topic. Eric, Your point is well taken. According to the laws of probablity, anything that happened once could happen again, not matter how unlikely. However I could use your logic to argue for the existence of the Loch Ness Monster or Bigfoot, if I chose to believe in such things. This argument was also used by Dick Cheney to get us into the Iraq War. According to Tricky Dick lack of evidence did not mean that the weapons of mass destruction did not exist. Look where that got us. If life is so common, why is it so conspicuously lacking on the close-by formerly Earth-like planet Mars? Why was/is Mars not swarming with life? Wouldn't conditions there have been perfect for life to exist? Yet there's no evidence for it. No matter how many probes we send up, the results for the search for ET always come up negative. Eventually you have to conclude it just ain't there, no matter how much you want it to be. They keep saying, we aren't looking in the right places, we checked the equator, it wasn't there, lets check the polar region, nope not there, so now they're saying we have to dig deep, it must be way underground. It kind of reminds me of ghost hunting. You believe it's there, but you just can't find it. And you can always come up with an excuse why you can't find it. Ghost busting equipment just isn't advanced enough, we need more time to locate the ghosts, the ghosts have no interest in communicating with us, etc. etc. Phil Whitmer ----------------------------------- Hi Phil, I agree completely with your sentiment, and respect your belief. However I sincerely disagree that your conclusion that intelligent extra terrestrial life does NOT exist is based on evidenced fact. There is only a lack of evidence, and the best argument to the contrary is us. Humans are the biggest single evidence in this universe that the development of intelligent life forms is possible. (though the intelligent part is arguable) I know you believe we're the only intelligent lifeform, and I know you think it's based on evidence, but it's actually lack of evidence to the contrary that you are basing your belief on. You're merely repeating Fermi's "Where are they?" question. Saying show me... I've already given an analogy that very simply shows Fermi's Paradox is not a paradox at all because we haven't the information to quantify the question to begin with. Lack of evidence is not evidence. You'll be surprised to know, I don't "believe" in extraterrestrials. However I can conclude they "most probably" exist because we are "here", and the chances of them not being "there" (wherever there is) are so minute it's statistically impossible considering the vastness and the age of the universe. We could also phrase this as "when" they were. Or how we "will" be in 1000 years, or 10,000 years. At the rate of technological advancement (if we don't destroy ourselves first) where will we be in 1000 years? That is curiously and seriously what I would like to know! Even so, one can still safely use statistics and numbers to figure the probability. No, I'm not hanging my alien hat on the Drake equation. I wouldn't know how to read it any more than I could read War & Peace in one sitting. I'm saying One must take into account ALL the variables possible to form a conclusion. Still, probability won't make it so. We may never know, or we might find ET tomorrow. I'll agree with Richard in that I believe that the universe is teaming with life. Intelligent life however is probably extremely rare. But even that, like time itself is probably relative. Regards, Eric Received on Fri 17 Sep 2010 01:40:10 AM PDT |
StumbleUpon del.icio.us Yahoo MyWeb |