[meteorite-list] Scientist Warns Massive Asteroid Could Hit Earth in 2182

From: almitt2 at localnet.com <almitt2_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Wed, 28 Jul 2010 20:11:25 -0400
Message-ID: <20100728201125.q791lz4zsi680ksc_at_webmail.localnet.com>

Hi Greg and Greg,

72 years or 172 years, if you are around you'll wish you'd taken better
care of yourself. :-)

--AL Mitterling

Quoting GREG LINDH <geeg48 at msn.com>:

>
>
>
> Hi Greg,
>
> I really suck at math, even so, I believe that would be 172 years
> from now, not 72, so you definitely won't be around.
>
>
>
> Greg
>
>
>
> ----------------------------------------
>> From: stanleygregr at hotmail.com
>> To: meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com
>> Date: Wed, 28 Jul 2010 15:23:46 -0700
>> Subject: [meteorite-list] Scientist Warns Massive Asteroid Could Hit
>> Earth in 2182
>>
>>
>> Wow - that's only 72 years from now... Don't think I'll be around
>>
>> Greg S.
>>
>>
>> http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/07/28/massive-asteroid-hit-earth-warn-scientists/?test=faces
>>
>>
>>
>> Scientist Warns Massive Asteroid Could Hit Earth in 2182
>>
>> A large asteroid in space that has a remote chance of slamming into
>> the Earth would be most likely hit in 2182, if it crashed into our
>> planet at all, a new study suggests.
>>
>> The asteroid, called 1999 RQ36, has about a 1-in-1,000 chance of
>> actually hitting the Earth, but half of that risk corresponds to
>> potential impacts in the year 2182, said study co-author Mar?a
>> Eugenia Sansaturio of the Universidad de Valladolid in Spain.
>>
>> Sansaturio and her colleagues used mathematical models to determine
>> the risk of asteroid 1999 RQ36 impacting the Earth through the year
>> 2200. They found two potential opportunities for the asteroid to hit
>> Earth in 2182.
>>
>> The research is detailed in the science journal Icarus.
>>
>> The asteroid was discovered in 1999 and is about 1,837 feet (560
>> meters) across. A space rock this size could cause widespread
>> devastation at an impact site in the remote chance that it hit
>> Earth, according to a recent report by the National Academy of
>> Sciences.
>>
>>
>> Scientists have tracked asteroid 1999 RQ36's orbit through 290
>> optical observations and 13 radar surveys, but there is still some
>> uncertainty because of the gentle push it receives from the
>> so-called Yarkovsky effect, researchers said.
>>
>> The Yarkovsky effect, named after the Russian engineer I.O.
>> Yarkovsky who proposed it around 1900, describes how an asteroid
>> gains momentum from thermal radiation that it emits from its night
>> side. Over hundreds of years, the effect's influence on an
>> asteroid's orbit could be substantial.
>>
>> Sansaturio and her colleagues found that through 2060, the chances
>> of Earth impacts from 1999 RQ36 are remote, but the odds increase by
>> a magnitude of four by 2080 as the asteroid's orbit brings it closer
>> to the Earth.
>>
>> The odds of impact then dip as the asteroid would move away, and
>> rise in 2162 and 2182, when it swings back near Earth, the
>> researchers found. It's a tricky orbital dance that makes it
>> difficult to pin down the odds of impact, they said.
>>
>> "The consequence of this complex dynamic is not just the likelihood
>> of a comparatively large impact, but also that a realistic
>> deflection procedure (path deviation) could only be made before the
>> impact in 2080, and more easily, before 2060," Sansaturio said in a
>> statement.
>>
>> After 2080, she added, it would be more difficult to deflect the asteroid.
>>
>> "If this object had been discovered after 2080, the deflection would
>> require a technology that is not currently available," Sansaturio
>> said. "Therefore, this example suggests that impact monitoring,
>> which up to date does not cover more than 80 or 100 years, may need
>> to encompass more than one century."
>>
>> By expanding the timeframe for potential impacts, researchers would
>> potentially identify the most threatening space rocks with enough
>> time to mount deflection campaigns that are both technologically and
>> financially feasible, Sansaturio said.
>>
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Received on Wed 28 Jul 2010 08:11:25 PM PDT