[meteorite-list] Fireballs Meteors & Meteorites

From: Sterling K. Webb <sterling_k_webb_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Tue, 26 May 2009 14:52:46 -0500
Message-ID: <04731243226F4B6190D57A9EB40B78C6_at_ATARIENGINE2>

Hi,

These are random events. And random may be
statistically defined as "one every 2.37 days" (or
whatever), but they don't happen on a 2.37-day
schedule.

The first thing you notice when you plot "random"
events is that they seem to "cluster." I say "seem"
because humans are very sensitively primed to "see"
patterns and potential trends in the events of the
world.

Frequencies go up; frequencies go down; it's random.
That's what random means. Every event is completely
unpredictable. Yet, given a large number of events
and a long enough period of time, the "completely
unpredictable" is "completely predictable," in the
miracle of statistical mechanics. Watch a large group
of randomly decaying uranium atoms draw a near-
perfect mathematical curve of declining activity.

The Universe likes to have it both ways. In contrast
to what Einstein thought, God does roll the dice but,
at the same time, the game is totally rigged.

Or is it?

The only valid rule about seeing fireballs and meteors
is this: they may fall or they may not fall, but if you're
not looking, you won't see them.


Sterling K. Webb
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
----- Original Message -----
From: "Meteorites USA" <eric at meteoritesusa.com>
To: <meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com>
Sent: Tuesday, May 26, 2009 2:13 PM
Subject: [meteorite-list] Fireballs Meteors & Meteorites


> The sky has been really quiet lately. Believe me, I'm watching...
>
> I've been rather disappointed that there has been no big meteors
> reported lately. So I was slightly curious when I ran across this
> little blurb hoping it was something. Then after reading the report...
> Well, let's just say that not all fireballs are meteors.
>
> http://www.local12.com/news/local/story/Mysterious-Lights-Near-Lebanon-Explained/04cbRHZAF0Cf_DQsy8_iXw.cspx
>
> Skydiving anyone...?
>
> On a side note, I'd like to ask some more questions. We've all
> witnessed and are very aware of the increased number of "witnessed"
> meteor events over this past year. Particularly the last 6 months or
> so. We're also very aware of all the new falls, especially those two
> newest meteorite falls right here in the United States and Canada. Not
> to mention the probable fall north of Merced, the Flagstaff fireball,
> Augusta, and another near Ontario Canada.
>
> I've asked this question before and received mixed replies with no
> definitive answers. My question still stands.
>
> Can anyone seriously say definitively that all the recent meteor
> fireballs and meteorite dropping fireball activity is NORMAL and
> simply attributed to increased awareness?
>
> The increased awareness supposedly explains the increased number of
> fireball sightings. This seems likely but it is NOT the case. Look at
> the Meteorite Men TV show as a perfect example of mainstream
> awareness. A national primetime program that was broadcast to millions
> of homes across this nation via the Science Channel. This would lead
> someone to believe logically that perhaps there would be an increased
> awareness one could attribute directly to this main stream broadcast.
> There was... But this increased awareness is not of meteors, but of
> meteorites.
>
> There has actually been decrease in reports of large meteor fireballs
> over the last month. There is a big increase in news related directly
> to meteorites, but NOT meteors or fireballs!
>
> Even with more media attention on "meteorites" over the last month, I
> suspect that the reason there has been decreased fireball sightings,
> is simply because there have been less fireballs to see. They' are
> just not falling at the rate they were a month or two ago.
>
> Can someone explain why? Am I missing something?
>
> --
> Regards,
> Eric Wichman
> Meteorites USA
> http://www.meteoritesusa.com
> 904-236-5394
>
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Received on Tue 26 May 2009 03:52:46 PM PDT