[meteorite-list] Where'd all the fireballs go?

From: Darren Garrison <cynapse_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Mon, 08 Jun 2009 17:34:07 -0500
Message-ID: <g94r25lr9kv7a6l6hkrkgo64jnqivmuk00_at_4ax.com>

On Mon, 08 Jun 2009 14:21:54 -0700, you wrote:

>Hello, Where'd all the pretty fireballs go?
>
>Has anyone else noticed how quiet the skies are lately?

They are probably reading the thread you started on 5/26 where you asked about
why there were so many fireballs lately (and then had the concept of
"randomness" clearly explianed by Sterling Webb, which I'll repost here):




These are random events. And random may be
statistically defined as "one every 2.37 days" (or
whatever), but they don't happen on a 2.37-day
schedule.

The first thing you notice when you plot "random"
events is that they seem to "cluster." I say "seem"
because humans are very sensitively primed to "see"
patterns and potential trends in the events of the
world.

Frequencies go up; frequencies go down; it's random.
That's what random means. Every event is completely
unpredictable. Yet, given a large number of events
and a long enough period of time, the "completely
unpredictable" is "completely predictable," in the
miracle of statistical mechanics. Watch a large group
of randomly decaying uranium atoms draw a near-
perfect mathematical curve of declining activity.

The Universe likes to have it both ways. In contrast
to what Einstein thought, God does roll the dice but,
at the same time, the game is totally rigged.

Or is it?

The only valid rule about seeing fireballs and meteors
is this: they may fall or they may not fall, but if you're
not looking, you won't see them.
Received on Mon 08 Jun 2009 06:34:07 PM PDT