[meteorite-list] Meteorite sales falling with the stock market?

From: Martin Altmann <altmann_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Fri, 17 Oct 2008 17:10:32 +0200
Message-ID: <005b01c9306a$805db020$177f2a59_at_name86d88d87e2>

Hi Mike,

interesting analyses, many thanks!

My experiences are somewhat differing, this year will have been the best so
far for Chladni's Heirs. Partially the European collectors profit from the
weak USD and were stocking up their collections as I can't remember having
seen before, while we couldn't observe major changes in the demand from USA
despite the crises.

You're predictions could be right, when the number of collectors and
interested people would be constant, but my feelings are, that this is not
the case and the number of buyers and new collectors was and is rapidly
growing during the very few recent years.

That could be a reason for your observation, which I made too, that
substantial specimens of historical falls and finds became remarkably rarer.
I wouldn't say that more and more collectors changed their habits to
historic locales, I'd say there are simply many more collectors (while the
supply of historics is limited), because we observed also an increased
demand in good and/or rare desert parallely.

With planetaries I have to disagree.
Remember 3 years back. Where do you find Dho 019 at 150$/g and even small
Zagamis at that price today, as it was then on ebay? On which dealer's page
can you still find the old standard price for the "standard"-Martians from
the DaG 476-series and the SaUs of 250$/g (and consequently sometimes lower
on ebay)? Where have all the SaUs gone? Where are the endless fullslices of
DaG 476?
During the last 3 years the Martians doubled, tripled and sometimes
quadrupled in price.
The only exception were the later surfacing small specimens of those very
fresh Martians, cause they were readily available through shows to
collectors in small quantities, making a nice fast buck for them (btw. the
first planetary, I can remember of, where pieces were retailed unclassified
and unnumbered) - but those are gone now.
So to me it seems rather, that the Martians will turn back to the level of
the end-90ies again - no wonder, as there was and is taking place the
renaissance of the Mars-missions by NASA and ESA.

Different it is with lunaites, there I believe to have observed a slightly
hesitant attitude of the specialized collectors (but not from clients beyond
the collectors scene). I guess they simply were waiting, whether the new NWA
5000 with its 12kg would have an impact on the Moon-prices in general and
whether they would find lunaites soon at 50 bucks a gram.
Obviously it wasn't the case, so this little delay will be most probably of
a very temporary nature. Remember in this respect the Russian
Dhofar-stampede years ago,
where some dealers already had seen the end of all lunars have come - how
soon they returned to the old level (and how happy these are, who bought in
these days).
And of course, exceptionel lunars still find their buyers at good prices.
And anyway, the offerors can't bend over backwards for the collectors ad
libitum, because although more finds appeared in NWA-wonderland, the prices
there have grown - also a reflection of a higher demand - and sometimes
lunars or Martians don't make it to the market anymore at all, but disappear
directly and entirely in collections.

Desert finds won't suffer on the long run. Everybody is bemoaning for more
than 3 years now, that the Moroccan assortment on the shows, regarding
achondrites, rarer types, fresh-crusters and oriented ones is getting
slimmer from year to year. With exception of the great and rich new
Maghreb-falls.
The overall volume of such finds is so tiny, that a possible dry-out will
take place much more fast than a possible decrease in demand.

Such finds and such qualities are already now much better paid than 2-3
years ago.

And I don't know, whether ebay is for these types a good indicator.
I confess, that I'm not looking that often into ebay, but if I do so, I have
the feeling, that those times, where you could win there a fairly mighty
chunk of an R, let's say NWA 753 at less than 3$/g or an fresh crusted
howardite at 2 or 4$/g are gone.
In fact, from time to time I made an addition, how many grams of a rare
desert type REALLY were sold on ebay per week. Well and there the results
often were for Rs, angrites, CR2s ect - all auctions respectively - often
not more than 2grams here, 5 grams there...in total.
So that one easily could suppose, that ebay isn't the sector, where the big
volume of such kind of material is moved.
Similarly it could be valid for larger specimens of rare historics.

Ebay mainly is mass locales, bulk stuff and micros of rarer meteorites.

With the mass locales you could observe by your own, how even the largest
finds in history were absorbed relatively quickly.
NWA 869, Gibeon e.g.- or all those Sikhotes, Seymchan, Brahins, even the
classified Dhofar-OCs, Chingas hence those where the supply thinned out,
cause our Russian heroes were more inactive, - they all got more expensive.
And one hasn't to be a seer, that even the Campos sold now at 30-50$/kg will
in 4 or 5 years get different prices, when the new Argentine law will have
taken its toll.

I think that I can say, that during the last few years, historics got
slightly more expensive, as well as Mars among the planetaries and rarer and
rarest desert and additionally high-quality items in general and in some
cases remarkably.
(Mass locales, if the supply was thinning out, too).
New falls, if not from the upper half of Africa, got world-record-prices.
Some mass locales, where the supply is good will stay as cheap as today for
the next years and especially the unclassified more weathered ordinary
chondrites, cause most of them seem not yet have to reached the market at
all.

And so far I can't see any reason, why this trend shouldn't continue.

Of course one can mention a lot of exceptions and there will be also
exceptions in future, but that is a more general view.

...and of course - I'm a dealer.

Therefore don't trust into my assertion to much, if I say - still it is
rather a market for buyers than for sellers.

Best!
Martin
   

-----Urspr?ngliche Nachricht-----
Von: meteorite-list-bounces at meteoritecentral.com
[mailto:meteorite-list-bounces at meteoritecentral.com] Im Auftrag von Mike
Bandli
Gesendet: Montag, 13. Oktober 2008 00:25
An: 'al mitterling'; 'Michael L Blood'; michael_w_gilmer at yahoo.com;
'Meteorite List'
Betreff: Re: [meteorite-list] Meteorite sales falling with the stock market?

At this point in time, my view is that the economic crisis has had little
immediate effect on the meteorite market. My observation has been that
historical and older witnessed falls continue to rise and sell quickly
(especially from the Old-World). More and more rare/historical falls are
reaching the $100+ a gram price, whereas a few years ago they were 'only'
$50/g. I believe there are several reasons for this:

1. Less museums and institutions are exchanging historical material.

2. More historical material is being sectioned down into smaller pieces and
macros making them more expensive (and larger pieces difficult to find).

3. I believe that more and more collectors are aspiring to collect
historical falls.

4. Hard Provenance. Provenance can add exceptional value to a piece and more
and more dealers are providing it pre-sale. (copies of old museum or
collector labels, chain of ownership, etc.).

On the other hand Dessert Finds, USA finds, and planetaries are cheap and
seem to be on a small decline. I believe there are several reasons for this
as well:

1. Dessert Finds: Many collectors have filled their type-collections making
otherwise rare types a little less desirable. Exceptions would be extremely
fresh material, new sub-types, or aesthetic pieces. Look how cheap CV3's
are!

2. USA Finds: There seems to have been a flood of this material over the
last few years - supply/demand. Exceptions would include ultra-rare irons,
rare localities, or old labels/provenance.

3. Planetaries: I'm not entirely sure what is happening here, but Lunars and
Martians could be purchased very cheap (in bulk) in Tucson. Perhaps supply
has overgrown demand. $1000/g planetaries are, for now, a thing of the past.
I believe that they will re-bound in several years, however, making them a
smart buy now.

These three groups may also suffer more as a result of the long-term
economic crisis as collectors begin prioritizing their collections.

I have been keeping a pretty close eye on this and it seems that eBay, for
the most part, is not the place to sell right now. The upside is that eBay
has some great bargains for buyers. As a result, I predict that more sellers
will discontinue the .99 cent selling format and begin using fixed prices on
eBay.

I also get the sense that some dealers are hoarding and/or are on selling
freezes. I haven't purchased much in the last few months only because there
is little for sale that suits my collection requirements. It will be
interesting to see where things are in February at Tucson.

Just my opinion and personal observations... Others' may be different and I
look forward to more posts on this topic.

Regards,

Mike Bandli
?


-----Original Message-----
From: meteorite-list-bounces at meteoritecentral.com
[mailto:meteorite-list-bounces at meteoritecentral.com] On Behalf Of al
mitterling
Sent: Sunday, October 12, 2008 2:09 PM
To: Michael L Blood; michael_w_gilmer at yahoo.com; Meteorite List
Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Meteorite sales falling with the stock market?

Hi Michael, Michael, Matt and all,

My sells have been very good this year even a good percentage over last
years sells.

--AL Mitterling
Mitterling Meteorites


----- Original Message -----
From: "Michael L Blood" <mlblood at cox.net>
To: <michael_w_gilmer at yahoo.com>; "Meteorite List"
<meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com>
Sent: Sunday, October 12, 2008 1:40 PM
Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Meteorite sales falling with the stock market?


> Hi Michael and all,
> No, you are not the only one. Aside from some outstanding
> Mali specimens at rock bottom prices (pun intended), my sales
> Are zero since the Democrats fiasco has begun.
> More in the Nov. Meteorite Market Trends....
> (howsabout others???)
> Best wishes, Michael
>
> on 10/12/08 9:27 AM, Michael Gilmer at michael_w_gilmer at yahoo.com wrote:
>
>> Has anyone else noticed a steep drop in sales since the stock market and
>> credit market woes began?
>>
>> My sales this month, so far, have bottomed out. It's the worst first two
>> weeks of a month, for sales, since
>> I started dealing meteorites in January of this year.
>>
>> At first, I thought it was just a normal "hiccup" in sales, which happens

>> from
>> time to time. But as my
>> sale offers languish without a single response, I am now starting to
>> wonder.
>> Is anyone else experiencing
>> this, or is it just me because I have a relatively-small customer base?
>>
>> Regards,
>>
>> MikeG
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> .........................................................
>> Michael Gilmer (Louisiana, USA)
>> Member of the Meteoritical Society.
>> Member of the Bayou Region Stargazers Network.
>> Websites - http://www.galactic-stone.com and http://www.glassthrower.com
>> MySpace - http://www.myspace.com/fine_meteorites_4_sale
>> ..........................................................
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> ______________________________________________
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>
> Totally Green by Twenty Eighteen!
>
> Info on Govnt. Spending (BEFORE current "Bail Out"):
> http://www.michaelbloodmeteorites.com/GvntSpending.htm
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> ______________________________________________
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Received on Fri 17 Oct 2008 11:10:32 AM PDT