[meteorite-list] WG: The future market for meteorites

From: Martin Altmann <altmann_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Wed, 26 Mar 2008 21:56:01 +0100
Message-ID: <011901c88f83$cd0c4400$177f2a59_at_name86d88d87e2>

Hi Martin and List (if Martin can forward),

A comment on the second point in your recent post:

> Second point is to estimate, if the market will slow down, how much
space
> is today left, for the prices to fall. The advocates, who are
preaching
> the supply&demand role for the meteorite market forget often another
> simple capitalistic axiom: If the production of a good is more
expensive
> than the price, which is paid for, it won't be produced anymore.

Quite so. (The extraction of oil from tar sands in Alberta is a
relatively
recent example -- below a certain price per barrel, it isn't worth it.
Most definitely *is* worth it at $100/barrel!)

> Now let's take a look into ebay - there are sold sometimes
kilogram-lots
> of mixed weathered unclassified NWA chondrites at 25-50$, hence at a
> price of an imported European cheese or of a better wall paint.
> (Won't repeat, that there are only a few tons of that stuff.
Meteorites
> not cheese). To find in desert and to assemble such a lot consisting
> out of mixed chondrites costs a lot of time and manpower. For rarer
> types, if one takes a look in the statistics exceedingly more.

There is an additional subtlety that is worth pointing out that makes
meteorite recovery rather different from that of oil or precious metals.
In most mineral recovery efforts (e.g. gold, silver, platinum, oil,
natural gas) the methodology is specific to that commodity, though there
may be secondary commodities that are also recovered as a result of
the process used to collect the primary. (Helium and molybdenum come
to mind.) However, in meteorite hunting, the most valuable specimens
are found only as a result of finding large numbers of less valuable
ones. So it's a bit more like diamond mining than oil exploration.

Most diamonds are "crap", but occasionally you'll find a large, clear
(or better yet, blue or red!) beauty. Similarly, you've got to find a
lot of H5s and L6s before you'll find that lunaite. So it's not the
going price of Hs and Ls that determine whether it is economical to
"mine" meteorites -- these are the "secondaries" that are recovered in
the course of trying to find the rarer carbonaceous and achondritic
meteorites that command far higher prices.

So I would surmise that it is ~mostly~ the going price of rare
meteorites that drives the economics of recovering the more common
ones. (But as Martin points out, at a certain point it's not even
worth picking up the ugly, weathered chondrites if the overhead of
doing so actually ~reduces~ your bottom line. Taken to a ridiculous
extreme, who would pick up a weathered H6 whose market price had
fallen to a penny a gram?)

> Well, and the other deserts.. American deserts, as E.P. mentioned.
> The very most stones found there are weathered chondrites. Now
> let us think, whether it could be possible to sell them at 50$/kg
> to make a living with meteorite hunting in USA. The living costs
> in USA are higher than in Algeria or Mauretania.

Which is the main reason that American (or European) meteorites will
never fall to such a low price.

> Let's say for taxes, car, other costs our hunter spends 50% of his
> sales. How many grams per hour has he to find then to meet the
> minimum wage of 8.5$ (or whatever you have in USA), if he sells
> them at 50$/g [sic, $50/kg]. 340 grams per hour?

Trust me, you're better off working at Starbucks or McDonalds.
American meteorite hunters don't do it for the income (at least I
don't know anyone who does). They do it for the challenge/adventure
or basic thrill-of-the-hunt. It's a hobby, not a vocation.

> Now we have to ask Sonny or Bob Verish, how many grams per hour
> their average is. I suppose for the required quota one would
> need a strewnfield like an NWA 869...

Well, one good strewn field is another way to considerably boost
productivity. But to answer your question (for myself), I average
one meteorite find in 5 1/2 hours of hunting, and based on 100+
finds, the average mass is 36.7 grams. Works out to less than
7 grams per hour. So you see why no sane person would do it for
the money!

Best wishes,
Rob
Received on Wed 26 Mar 2008 04:56:01 PM PDT