[meteorite-list] Effect of fall of dollar against Euro/ dirham's
From: mexicodoug at aim.com <mexicodoug_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Wed, 09 Apr 2008 06:39:54 -0400 Message-ID: <8CA68452E5511CD-1378-178_at_FWM-D33.sysops.aol.com> Rob wrote: > Wouldn't it be interesting if there was a futures market > for meteorites? That would add some price stability... DISCLAIMER: The below is only a personal opinion and should not be taken seriously. I am not responsible anyone screwing up because they want to speculate in a market that is entirely capitalized by Stackelberg competition. COMMENT: For once I completely agree with Sterling ... Where is the divine intervention to strike this folly down: futures would be thoroughly despicable as they would be perverted. They would amplify the gains and losses in speculation by leveraging personaly fortunes on price movements and abuse beyond anything we could imagine (Rob - wake up! Futures only work with disclosure and in near-perfect markets!) Friends in Chicago (Chicago is famous for futures trading) would lose there life savings in a heartbeat without ever even holding a meteorite! This would be the perfect scam as dealers could "take and sell candy from babies" -in the meaning of the cliche - not meant an insult: buyers are certainly mature, right?!). Not to mention that any Americans participating in such a scam could lose their shirt AND be sent to jail! If you have that inclination, two can always mutually obligate themselves to sell a specimen at a particular forward date for a given price. I.e., A promises to buy specimen X from B on future date Y for $X amount (or even a weight, as if dealing in potatoes). All settlement must occur only "giving and giving" what was agreed. No one can give money to buy a future "contract" or "option" for that matter ... The other method available is to simply sell something for a fixed price on "lay-a-way" (accepting gradual payments until paid off). This is just a form of credit and delivery of the specimen could be at any mutually agreed upon point during the transaction. A contentious area between friends is accepting a non-refundable deposit for a specimen where the balance will be paid at a future date. Unfortunately it is basically a disguised future option which effectively might circumvent the investment regulators. But those deposits can't be traded. They are one-on-one! So there are already enough simulated instruments to effectively annihilate anyone who would think about turning meteorites into gambling chips ... (And please don't give the Space Needle casino folks in Las Vegas any such literal ideas of making gambling chips out of such precious material!) Best wishes and Great Health, Doug -----Original Message----- From: Sterling K. Webb <sterling_k_webb at sbcglobal.net> To: Meteorite List <meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com> Cc: Rob Matson <mojave_meteorites at cox.net> Sent: Wed, 9 Apr 2008 3:09 am Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Effect of fall of dollar against Euro/ dirham's Hi, Marketeers! Rob wrote: > Wouldn't it be interesting if there was a futures market > for meteorites? That would add some price stability... Like the futures market equivalents for bundled subprime loans, the credit insurers and their "credit default slops"? Buy them for pennies on the dollar. They helped a lot (not). Dave wrote: > big oil is probably a good business to invest in at the > moment..." When everybody thinks a certain business is a good business to be in, the stock price is at a recent peak. You never buy a stock at its peak. Stocks never stay at their peaks; they fall off. If you wait and wait, maybe you can sell it again at the price you paid for it... someday. How can you make money that way? What you want to do is look around for a perfectly good business that is, however, NOT a good business to be in right this moment. [This is an example, not a recommendation.] Most of you know what flash memory is. That's the little card that goes in your camera to record the pictures on. It's the memory in Mp3 players and iPod Nano's and dozens of other devices. But these items are all consumer goods and folks are not buying consumer goods as fast as they used to, so the predictions for the growth of flash memory sales for the next year has fallen from a nearly 30% increase in sales to only a 7% increase. The herds of "stock sheep" have all run away from companies that make flash memory chips because they will probably have a low-growth year. Not a loss, just less growth. The largest maker of NAND flash chips in the US, SanDisk, had a stock price of nearly $60 last April. This April, a few days ago, it slipped down to $19.54 A smart buyer would know that after this current upset is over, consumer sales will rebound with pent up demand ("I can finally that new Mp3 player!") and SanDisk will be selling flash memory as fast as they can make it. I know this about smart buyers because, sure enough, SanDisk popped back up to nearly $30 in just one day as the smart ones swooped in and snapped it up at $20 (and dumped it again at $30). The really smart ones will hold it back to $60. I use this example because I missed it. Drat! Michael wrote: > I don't think anything will be available "cheaper" than it was > at the height of the market 7 or 8 years ago... Markets are just accumulated psychology. Things will get "worse" through this year. In January 2009, we will have a major change in government that will propose a lot of changes they say will make things "better." By spring 2009, many of them will become law. People will feel hopeful instead discouraged. They will feel "better," and guess what? Things will get "better." Accumulated psychology. Sympathetic magic. Everything will be "worth" more, says the science of economics, because they cost more. How do we know things will cost more? Things always cost more, as a function of time. Just dig up anybody over the age of 70 (with a working brain) and ask them what they once paid for a loaf of bread? A gallon of milk? Gasoline? A new car? (Answers to quiz: 11 cents, 50 cents, 19.9 cents, $1700.) The milk costs more because the cow costs more, the corn costs more, the gasoline to haul it costs more, and so forth. That, say the economists, is because they're "worth" more, whatever that means. Have you noticed any major improvements in cows? Corn? Gasoline? Me neither, but they're "worth" more now than they used to be. I'll bet those cows feel proud... As Rob pointed out, gasoline is "worth" just what it was in the 1970's. It only costs more because the dollar is worth less. As for what the dollar is "worth," Americans love to blame the behavior of their government's debt policy. Government debt is just an investment: bonds are sold, interest is paid on them. Buyers of debt do not think the dollar is worthless; afterall, they are going to be paid that interest in the debtor nation's currency, and be repaid in them too. The US government is just doing what its citizens are doing: spending more money than we have. We have been spending more than our earnings for many decades, going increasingly into personal, not national debt. Michael wrote: > You can't have it both ways - they [the US government] > have been acting like a 15 year old with a credit card... No, it's the 15-year-olds with credit cards (and the 20-year-olds, and the 30-year-olds, and the 40-year-olds...) that have been acting like 15-year-olds with credit cards! If we just behaved this way with each other, it wouldn't matter. But we buy so much from overseas that trade deficits are working their way up to a trillion dollars a year. That, not government debt, devalues the dollar. Nations with positive savings rates (spend less than they earn) always have trade surpluses and strong currencies. Nations with negative savings rates (spend more than they earn) always have trade deficits and weak currencies. And the nations with positive savings rates, trade surpluses, and strong currencies? They have national debts, too. Every nation does. You want a strong dollar and a stable economy? Stop spending so much money! Cut your spending until you have money left over. Put it in the bank. Pay down your credit card. Don't take out loans. You want to buy something special? Save up the money until you can buy it outright. (If you can't do that, did you really want it?) Dead silence. See, NOBODY wanted to hear that! It MUST be the fault of high-priced gasoline, government debt, worthless politicians -- not me! Sterling K. Webb ------------------------------------------------------------------------- --- ----- Original Message ----- From: "Rob Matson" <mojave_meteorites at cox.net> To: "Meteorite List" <meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com> Sent: Tuesday, April 08, 2008 12:16 PM Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Effect of fall of dollar against Euro/ dirham's At least at the present time, the U.S. drives the meteorite market, which is why sales are slow. From a collecting standpoint, meteorites are and have always been a luxury item. Despite their rarity and scientific value, they do not have the liquidity of other commodities, so they cannot be used as a reliable hedge against inflation. (Wouldn't it be interesting if there was a futures market for meteorites? That would add some price stability.) If I was a dealer that depended on sales for my livelihood, I might consider making advertising inroads into emerging markets -- specifically China. Effective marketing there is likely to be quite different from that which works for Western consumers. Dave and Michael both mentioned the rise in the U.S. national debt which certainly has a negative effect on the purchasing power of the dollar. (As a humorous aside, I'm reminded of Saturday Night Live's Dennis Miller once asking, "Who do we owe this debt to? I say, 'let's just not pay it.' What are they going to do?" As for oil/gasoline, the real price is no higher than it was in the 1970s. Frankly, I don't quite understand how gasoline isn't over $6/gallon when you consider the comparative cost of a barrel of oil today (over $100) vs. say five years ago (less than $30). Dave wrote: "I think big oil is probably a good business to invest in at the moment...", to which I would say it's probably better than meteorites! But the truth is, anyone who owns mutual funds is already invested in oil. That's not to say you wouldn't want to press your position (I have been). As for the outcome of the fall elections having an impact on oil prices, I'd say it will be minimal. Oil is a global commodity whose price is fixed largely by demand, not U.S. politics. Cheers, Rob ______________________________________________ http://www.meteoritecentral.com Meteorite-list mailing list Meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list ______________________________________________ http://www.meteoritecentral.com Meteorite-list mailing list Meteorite-list at meteoritecentral.com http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-listReceived on Wed 09 Apr 2008 06:39:54 AM PDT |
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