[meteorite-list] Fwd: OT (or on with 44Ti?) Sunspot mechanism

From: E.P. Grondine <epgrondine_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Thu Sep 28 23:06:10 2006
Message-ID: <20060929030604.26142.qmail_at_web36912.mail.mud.yahoo.com>

Hi Sterlring, list

This from today's CC:

> (6) SOLAR ACTIVITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
>
> Will Alexander <alexwjr_at_iafrica.com>
>
> Dear Benny
>
> As a subscriber to CCNet, like many of your readers
> I have watched
> recent developments with increasing alarm. What I
> completely fail to
> understand is the fundamental lack of knowledge of
> the most basic issue
> of climate change science - the influence of solar
> activity on global
> climate.
>
> Why do climate change scientists continue to ignore
> the wealth of
> literature stretching back for more than 100 years,
> relating to the
> multiyear anomalies in the hydrometeorological data
> and their linkage
> with solar activity?
> The following is a short memorandum on the subject.
> There are no
> abstract theories or hypotheses so it should not be
> too difficult for
> others to check its validity.
>
> CLIMATE PREDICTION MODEL
>
> The synchronous linkage between sunspot activity,
> floods, droughts and
> surface temperature has been recorded and published
> for more than 100
> years in South Africa and elsewhere.
>
> My detailed analyses of a very large and
> comprehensive
> hydrometeorological database showed a statistically
> significant (95%)
> 21-year periodicity in the South African data during
> the past century.
>
> I found no statistically significant 11-year
> periodicity. I also found
> that the characteristics of the hydrometeorological
> data differed during
> the alternating 11 and 10-year periods that made up
> the 21-year
> periodicity.
> Other South African scientists have noted and
> published similar
> anomalies in the data.
>
> I used the regular, periodic changes to develop a
> successful climate
> prediction model published in 1995 and updated in
> 2005.
> Although not part of the model, I demonstrated an
> unambiguous
> synchronous linkage with sunspot activity. This
> information was also
> published.
>
> For the past four years F Bailey from the UK and I
> have carried out
> independent studies. I studied the
> hydrometeorological data and he
> studied solar activity. We made contact earlier this
> year and found a
> clear and unambiguous causal linkage between solar
> activity and the
> hydrometeorological responses.
>
> CAUSAL LINKAGE
>
> The solar system consists of the sun and the
> orbiting bodies, of which
> the four major planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and
> Neptune are the most
> important.
>
> The solar system has a centre of mass, (SSCM). All
> bodies in the solar
> system, including the sun, orbit around the SSCM.
> The SSCM has a constant velocity through galactic
> space.
>
> At times the four major planets are grouped together
> in their orbits and
> at other times they are scattered around the SSCM.
> When they are grouped together, their combined
> effect causes the sun to
> follow a weighted reciprocal path around the SSCM.
> The distance between
> the sun and the SSCM therefore varies. This creates
> a wobble in the
> sun's trajectory through space.
>
> Our recent analyses demonstrate the following.
>
> The alternating grouping and dispersion of the four
> major planets occurs
> at regular intervals of about 21 years. This is
> synchronous with the
> 21-year periodicity in the hydrometeorological data.
>
> During this period the solar system performs
> approximately one and three
> quarter rotations through galactic space.
> Starting with the sun's position trailing that of
> the SSCM, the sun
> accelerates to take up a balancing position ahead of
> the SSCM. This
> takes place during the first rotation of the solar
> system. The duration
> is typically 11 years.
>
> The sun continues rotating about the SSCM but its
> galactic velocity
> decelerates as it returns to the trailing position.
> The duration of this
> rotation is typically about 10 years. The 21-year
> solar cycle is then
> repeated.
>
> Both the acceleration and deceleration processes
> result in an increase
> in sunspot numbers while the intervening sunspot
> minima occur when the
> sun is in the trailing and leading positions. The
> mechanism that
> produces the sunspots is unknown but several
> theories exist. This
> synchronous occurrence of sunspot activity with the
> sun's acceleration
> and deceleration as the solar system moves through
> galactic space is
> beyond doubt.
>
> CHANGES IN THE RECEIPT OF SOLAR ENERGY
>
> A consequence of the wobble in the sun's trajectory
> through galactic
> space is the ever-changing chord distance between
> the sun and earth.
>
> This in turn results in corresponding changes in the
> rate of solar
> energy received on earth.
> These changes are amenable to mathematical
> calculation.
> Our analyses show that the changes in the receipt of
> solar energy are
> appreciably greater than those generally quoted in
> the climate change
> literature.
>
> VISUALISATION
>
> Te following example should help with the
> visualisation of the
> situation. Consider a ceiling fan mounted on the
> back of an open truck
> and tilted at a 45 degree upward angle facing the
> front of the vehicle.
> A marble is attached to the tip of one of the
> blades.
>
> The truck moves at a constant speed and the fan
> rotates at a constant
> speed. However, the road speed of the marble
> changes. At the 12 o'clock
> and 6 o'clock positions of the marble its road speed
> is the same as the
> truck speed. At the 3 o'clock position the marble is
> moving forward and
> its road speed is accelerating. Conversely, at the 9
> o'clock position
> the marble is moving backwards and its road speed is
> decelerating.
>
> The same happens as the sun orbits around the SSCM.
> It is the galactic
> velocity that accelerates and decelerates. This
> results in increases in
> sunspot activity. The sunspot minima occur when the
> sun's galactic
> velocity equals that of the SSCM.
> This movement is amenable to mathematical
> calculation. Confirmation is
> the synchronous behaviour of multiyear changes in
> rainfall, river flow
> and flood peak maxima.
>
> OUTSTANDING ISSUES
>
> The two main outstanding issues are the physical
> mechanism that causes
> sunspot production resulting from the changes in the
> sun's galactic
> velocity, and the mechanism that links these changes
> with global
> climate. These do not negate the underlying
> processes.
>
> Our findings open a whole new field of research
> related to present and
> past climatic processes.
>
> REPRODUCIBILITY
>
> Our findings are based on readily available data
> published by the
> responsible national authorities. Our calculations
> are reproducible by
> anybody with sufficient knowledge in these fields.
>
> Despite a diligent search I was unable to detect any
> sustained changes
> in the hydrometeorological data that could be
> attributed to climate
> change, against the background of the statistically
> significant changes
> associated with solar activity.
>
> Neither of us has received any financial or other
> support from any
> source. Our sole motivations were the advancement of
> science.
>
> WJR Alexander
> Professor Emeritus, Department of Civil and
> Biosystems Engineering
> University of Pretoria, South Africa
> alexwjr_at_iafrica.com



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Received on Thu 28 Sep 2006 11:06:04 PM PDT