[meteorite-list] Meteorites Used To Study Solar Activity ATLAST!!!

From: Sterling K. Webb <sterling_k_webb_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Thu Sep 28 19:42:51 2006
Message-ID: <001f01c6e357$c9254280$fa57e146_at_ATARIENGINE>

Hi, Katsuhito, List,

    Thanks for the accessible link!

    It would seem that what he wishes to correlate 44Ti
with is the "heliospheric modulation parameter." After
scurrying to Google, I discover that it is apparently an
arbitrary coefficient that reflects the ability of the Sun's
heliosphere to deflect, stop, slow and otherwise prevent
cosmic rays from reaching the Earth's surface.

    It is believed to relate directly to the strength of the
Sun's magnetc field, which in turn relates directly to
the sunspot number. Solar modulation changes galactic
cosmic ray intensities at low energies by up to an order
of magnitude between the solar minimum and the solar
maximum.

    The modulation parameter is determined by largely
empirical means (balloon flight measurements) and
"ignores a lot of physics which could be important,"
says one scientist, like the tilt of the magnetic field.
But it does seem to work well.

    The half life of 44Ti is only 86 years, so if you tested
a meteorite that fell in 1146 AD, less than one thousandth
of the 44Ti would be left. In a fall from 286 AD, less than
one millionth. Still, it would be interesting if they could
extend the study back in time.

    Global warmists tend to discount the intense warming
eposode between 900 AD and 1200 AD. They even cast
doubt on the "Little Ice Age" of 1400 to 1700 AD. Anyone
know of a 450 year old or a 950 year old fall?

    Usoskin is primarily interested in determining which
sunspot model number fits reality and the GSN model
(whatever that is) clearly does. What I note with interest
is the equally good fit of the sunspot number models to the
neutron flux. The most usual end product of cosmic rays
slashing into the atmosphere is neutrons.

    Here we've been measuring the Sun's entire energy
output bolometrically for a century or so, and it obviously
doesn't change enough to account for warming or cooling
on the scale that happens over the long term. But, what if,
what if tiny modulations in the heliosphere have a biggish
effect on how many neutrons get to punch down into the
Earth's lower atmosphere and that result largely determines
what the amount of cloud cover for the planet will be?

    1,674,900,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 neutrons
weigh in at one gram, so perhaps a mass only equal to
that of a feather (or a small rock), properly applied over
time, has the power to turn the planet's thermostat up or
down 5 or 10 degrees! It would, by any reckoning, be a
very tiny finger on that thermostat.

    It would be so clever of the Universe to do that.

    One of the interesting features of a neutron moderated
climate model would be the asymmetry of its function in
cold vs. warm regimes. In an Ice Age, evaporation is greatly
reduced and much of the water is tied up in ice; it is a very
dry time. Pelt the Earth with neutrons all you want, but it's
hard to form many new clouds in such arid conditions, so
the Ice Age can cool the planet unopposed.

    In a Greenhouse Age, however, the Earth would become
very much more sensitive to cooling moderated by neutron
flux induced cloud cover. With high evaporation rates, high
sea levels, and high humidity, neutrons would be in control
of the planet's albedo, and "cap" the possible increase in
temperature.

    The GCM's (Global Climate Models), which have clouds
driven only by heat and evaporation, have this tendency to
diverge into runaway greenhouse heating (like Venus), but
the reality is that for many long Greenhouse Ages, the Earth's
mean temperature always stabilizes around 22 degrees C.
and stays there for tens of millions of years (except for one
short nasty hot spell at the end of the Permian). For at least
the last half billion years, that's the way it's been: no runaway
greenhouses.


Sterling K. Webb
-----------------------------------------------------
----- Original Message -----
From: "K. Ohtsuka" <ohtsuka_at_jb3.so-net.ne.jp>
To: "Meteorite Mailing List" <meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Sent: Thursday, September 28, 2006 6:54 AM
Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Meteorites Used To Study Solar Activity
ATLAST!!!


> Hello list members,
>
> see the following link,
>
> http://www.aanda.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=181&Itemid=42&lang=en
>
> where you can download the PDF file of the A&A letter.
>
> Katsuhito O.
> Tokyo, JAPAN
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Rob McCafferty" <rob_mccafferty_at_yahoo.com>
> To: <meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com>
> Sent: Thursday, September 28, 2006 7:00 AM
> Subject: [meteorite-list] Meteorites Used To Study Solar Activity AT
> LAST!!!
>
>
>> Hi all
>>
>> This phenomena of cosmic ray alteration of isotope
>> concentration has been known to me for a long while.
>>
>> As solar activity increases, it deflects the cosmic
>> rays which reduces the effect of cosmic rays.
>>
>> On earth, one of it's best effects is altering the
>> amount of Carbon 14 (C14) prodced during periods of
>> high solar activity. C14 has a known half-life of
>> approx 5800 years and is created constantly so all
>> things once living have a known amount of it. Once
>> they die, this proportion decreases.
>>
>> Less well known is that year on year, the proportion
>> of C12/C14 changes according to solar activity.
>> Correction factors have to be made in carbon dating.
>>
>> Individual tree rings can be measured for actual vs
>> predicted C12/C14 ratios and a picture of solar
>> activity can be build up.
>>
>> This method shows several things
>>
>> Tree rings from 1640 to 1710 show a big increase in
>> C14 vs predicted signifying a low solar activity. This
>> roughly corresponds to a period of low temperature.
>> The Thames in London used to freeze each winter and
>> was so thick fairs could be held on the ice.
>>
>> It suggests that in Roman times, temperatures were
>> even warmer than today. Grapes can only be grown in
>> south east England today. Back then they could be
>> grown North of York.
>>
>> It also suggests a general increase in solar activity
>> over the last few hundred years, since the Maunder
>> minimum, in fact. We're on a rise now, apparently.
>>
>> If meteorites are also showing this trend, some
>> credence must be give to the "The Human Race is a
>> bunch of arrogant idiots who think they are more
>> influential in the Grand Scheme of Things than they
>> really are" school of thought which I aspire to
>> ascribe.
>>
>> Equally, I suggest that this blip in the epochs of
>> time should be a timely reminder not to mess with
>> things too much as we really have no idea how much
>> influence we really have.
>>
>> Just my thoughts for the subject.
>>
>> (DISCLAIMER: this post was not sponsored by
>> Shell/BP/XXon/FINA/Texaco or any other petrolium
>> industry, etc. The author cannot discount the
>> possibility that the original meteorite study may have
>> been. He would like to distance himself from any
>> suggestions to that effect....
>>
>> I think that puts me in the clear)
>>
>> Anon (just in case)
>>
>>
>>
>> --- "Matson, Robert" <ROBERT.D.MATSON_at_saic.com> wrote:
>>
>> > Hi All,
>> >
>> > Who'da thunk that global warming could become an
>> > on-topic
>> > subject for the meteorite list?! --Rob
>> >
>> > -----Original Message-----
>> > From: meteorite-list-bounces_at_meteoritecentral.com
>> > [mailto:meteorite-list-bounces_at_meteoritecentral.com]
>> > On Behalf Of Ron
>> > Baalke
>> > Sent: Tuesday, September 26, 2006 2:15 PM
>> > To: Meteorite Mailing List
>> > Subject: [meteorite-list] Meteorites Used To Study
>> > Solar Activity
>> >
>> >
>> http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/view.php?StoryID=20060926-015940-3936r
>> >
>> > Meteorites used to study solar activity
>> > UPI
>> > September 26, 2006
>> >
>> > OULU, Finland (UPI) -- A Finnish-led international
>> > team has used
>> > meteorites to investigate the sun's solar activity
>> > of past centuries.
>> >
>> > Ilya Usoskin at Finland's Sodankyla Geophysical
>> > Observatory and
>> > colleagues compared the amount of Titanium 44 in 19
>> > meteorites that have
>> > fallen to the Earth the past 240 years. They said
>> > their findings confirm
>> > that solar activity increased strongly during the
>> > 20th century. They
>> > also find the sun has been particularly active
>> > during the past few
>> > decades.
>> >
>> > The scientists say studying the sun's activity is
>> > one of the oldest
>> > astrophysical projects, as astronomers began
>> > recording the number of
>> > sunspots to trace the sun's magnetic activity 400
>> > years ago.
>> >
>> > The team examined a set of 19 meteorites whose dates
>> > of fall are
>> > precisely known, measuring the amount of radioactive
>> > isotope Titanium 44
>> > in each meteorite. Titanium 44 is produced by the
>> > cosmic rays in the
>> > meteorites while they are outside the Earth's
>> > atmosphere. After the
>> > meteorite has fallen, it stops producing the
>> > isotope.
>> >
>> > By measuring the Titanium 44 in the meteorites, the
>> > scientists
>> > determined the level of solar activity at the time
>> > the meteorite fell.
>> >
>> > The study appears in the journal Astronomy &
>> > Astrophysics Letters.
Received on Thu 28 Sep 2006 07:42:39 PM PDT