[meteorite-list] Contact! - OT - ish
From: Gerald Flaherty <grf2_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Wed Feb 1 23:27:57 2006 Message-ID: <009201c627b1$05604e10$6402a8c0_at_Dell> wisdom with a smiling face Jerry Flaherty ----- Original Message ----- From: "Sterling K. Webb" <sterling_k_webb_at_sbcglobal.net> To: "Meteorite List" <meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com> Cc: "Matson, Robert" <ROBERT.D.MATSON_at_saic.com>; "mark ford" <markf_at_ssl.gb.com> Sent: Wednesday, February 01, 2006 10:44 PM Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Contact! - OT - ish > Hi, All. > > Yes, during the Tucson Lull, we can babble of other things... > > I posted some months ago, the simplest and most obvious > argument against SETI's vision of a universe filled with friendly > chatty aliens (simple and obvious is hard to be wrong about). > > While it is tremendously difficult to discriminate a single, > intensely narrow-band signal out of the Galactic noise, the > existence of an EM-using civilization would be impossible > to miss. The Earth is already so bright in the radio spectrum > that it could be detected halfway across the Galaxy using > 1950's technology (if we'd been broadcasting for 50,000 > years, that is). > > For 10-15 years now, SETI science has been fighting a > rear-guard action. Speculation in the field centers around > coming up with some excuses to explain why we haven't > detected a signal yet. > > Here's some of them: > > a) the signal has a very, very narrow-bandwidth (this is usually > combined with a financial appeal for a 100-trillion-channel > receiver), hence is almost impossible to detect. This seems > to be the current favorite of SETI-ites. > > b) the aliens are all so advanced that they no longer use the > crude medium of EM waves but are gossiping everywhere around > us via tachyons, or phase-modulated neutrinos, or gravitational > wave radio, or... (This is a cheap shot excuse.) > > c) the universe is such an incredibly dangerous place that > using radio waves is like putting on colorful clothes and going > to picnic in the no-mans-land between the barbed wire trenches. > Species that do it, get snuffed in short order (Gregory Benford). > > d) intelligent life is dangerously suicidal, and no technological > civilization lasts for more than a century or two before it wipes > itself out. The challenge to intelligent life is to keep from blowing > yourself up within a century or so of discovering, say, nuclear > fission and fusion, so the Universe is littered with the blasted > and destroyed planets which were once the home worlds of > fledging intelligent species like us (Arthur C. Clarke and > lots of others). > > e) a similar argument to the above, only in instead of the > nuclear fears of the 1980's, it substitutes the ecological fears > of 2000; intelligent life destroys by its industrial ecology its > own planetary environment to such an extent that it collapses > into a pre-industrial culture, with no radio, a Universe filled > with medieval or primitive aliens (Ursula K. LeGuin was > the first to offer this, before SETI). > > f) terrestrial planets should have (so the argument goes) so > much more water than the Earth that they are all Waterworlds. > Intelligent life evolves, yes, but underwater, so the smart aliens > are all brainy dolphins and cephalopods, very philosophical, > but with no hands, no technology, hence no radio (David Brin). > The Earth, with only modest oceans and some dry land, is a > vary rare exception in this model. > > g) as a young intelligent species, we are dangerous to ourselves > and others. The Earth is a Wildlife Preserve. No communication > nor contact is permitted. Do Not Feed The Animals. Heavy > Fines are Possible... (Lots of folks like this one, too.) > > h) fiddling with the Drake equation to come up with N=1. > Of course, you could always come up with N=0 as easily, > which rules us out as well. Hmmm. > > As is always the case in religious disputes the beliefs and > biases, yes, the hopes and dreams, of the "thinker" strongly > color the outcome. When Carl Sagan fiddled with the Drake > equation, he came up with N=10,000... > > Don't get me wrong. I spent most of my life "believing" in the > eventuality of "SETI success," but it gets harder and harder to > hold to, requiring more faith and less logic to maintain > with every passing decade (four, so far). I love ET. I've > watched CONTACT, Oh Lord, how many times? > > The thought of a Universe in WE are the best that > intelligent life can manage is profoundly depressing. > The saucer lands; the glowing aliens say (telepathically, > no doubt), "Take us to Your Leader." And I mutter, > "Wouldn't you rather meet somebody else? I know lots > of nice interesting humans who'd love to chat with you..." > That's not a political comment, BTW. It pretty much > applies to most Leaders I can remember. And they're > too late to have a fireside chat (literally) with > Abraham Lincoln. > > The excuses? > > Well, I already answered A. > > B. Well, tachyons or not, they would still use EM waves > for something, radar, beacons, something, for the simple > reason that electrons are CHEAP. I can buy a gallon > of electrons for the price of a pico-liter of tachyons. > (The price went up again last week!). And a big > civilization would use lots of cheap electrons, hence > they would show up in the radio spectrum, just we do. > > C. If this theory were correct, the planet-smashing probes > of the Galactic Machine Civilization should be arriving > any minute, or the Intergalactic Locusts of Independence > Day would just be passing the Moon. We've been screaming > away in the EM for eighty years, so if The Danger is within > 40 light years... An eighty light-year sphere contains > A LOT of stars. I'm not in a figuring mood; just get > yourself zeroes, bucket of, one (1). > > D. Keep your fingers off that Big Red Button... > Is every species as dumb as we are? Hard to > believe. After fifty years, we (meaning the West) > seem to have learned about playing with these > really dangerous toys. Now, all we have to is > convince Iran, and North Korea, and... > > E. Global warming...? Don't be silly. > > F. Of the four terrestrial planets we know of, the > Earth has the most water. The argument that terrestrial > planets should be drowning in water seems like special > pleading cooked up for the occasion. > > G., H., et cetera. Oh, heck, the rest are just excuses, > really. They're really all just excuses. > > MAYBE it's intelligent life that's really rare. Since it > took almost five billion years for it to pop up on > this planet, you could reasonably argue that it's > the bottleneck in the Drake equation. > > Five billion years to evolve intelligence, you could > also argue reasonably, that it's essentially a matter > of chance that it evolves at all. IF intelligence is > only an accident, it might well be that the average > time to evolve intelligence is longer than the lifetime > of a star! That would sure cut N down to size... > > You could calculate the likelihood of intelligent > life this way: cellular life has existed on Earth > for roughly 90% of its lifetime; multi-cellular life > has existed on Earth for roughly 10% of its > lifetime; intelligent (well, more or less) life has > existed on Earth for roughly 1/1000th of 1% > of its lifetime. Therefore, intelligent life exists > for 1/100,000th of the life of a life-bearing planet. > > That reduces factor-sub-i from 0.01 to 0.00001. > If additionally, you reduce the lifetime of technical > civilizations and their dangerous toys to a few > centuries, that really chops old N down to size! > (How many times do I have to tell you to stay > away from The Big Red Button?) > > Rob suggests that it is possible that once a > technical civilization becomes advanced enough, > it is virtually immortal. Arthur Clarke suggested > the same thing. Pleasant thought. We all like that > immortality talk. We like it more and more the older > we get... Futurist Ray Kurzweil just wrote a book > ("The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend > Biology") suggesting mankind is about to evolve > into super-organic-inorganic immortality. Hey! > You can sign me up for the silicon; I'm ready > to chip out... > > So, the Universe (the "Heavens") is filled with > wise immortals? Ever notice how many scientific > notions end up sounding a lot like religious ones? > These Wise Immortals have Wings? Harps? > Look like Buddha? Never Mind... I'm just > naturally suspicious... > > So, the many intelligent lifeforms in our Galactic > neighborhood, taking note of our commencement > of the use of EM technology, have imposed a ban > on radio spectrum signals within 100 lightyears of > Earth, the restricted zone to expand at the rate of > one lightyear per year until further notice. Nothing > permitted but tachyon traffic. > > "Do you have any idea of what that will do > to our operating budget? It's totally unfair > for us to have to bear the burden of those > costs just because some... some..." > > "Monkeys." > > "Monkeys?" > > "Yes, monkeys. I know... Who would have > thought it?" > > "OK, just because some monkeys have gotten > smart all of a sudden. I mean, not to mention > having to mothball all that equipment... Why should > we get stuck with it?" > > "There's an 80% tax credit on both capital and > operating cost over-runs." > > "In that case... No problem!" > > > On the other hand, if WE are it, the only ones, > the sole representative of intelligence in the > Galaxy, maybe, just maybe, it might prove to be > an incentive to GROW UP, fer cryin' outloud!! > Why don't you monkeys stop carrying all that > BS around with you and ACT like intelligent life > once in a while. I know, it's hard... Here's what > I suggest: just PRETEND you're the only wise > aliens in the Galaxy and do what you think the > only intelligent Galactic life, in all its wisdom, > would do. > > Maybe, after a while, it would get to be a habit... > > > Sterling K. Webb > ---------------------------------------------------------- > PS: That last comment not addressed to any Poster > nor Member of the List, naturally; just to Humanity > In General... > --------------------------------------------------------------------------- > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Matson, Robert" <ROBERT.D.MATSON_at_saic.com> > To: <meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com> > Sent: Wednesday, February 01, 2006 1:48 PM > Subject: RE: [meteorite-list] Contact! - OT - ish > > >> Hi Mark, >> >>> N = N* fp ne fl fi fc Fl (The Drake Equation) >> >> I've always enjoyed jiggering with the numbers in the Drake >> equation; unfortunately, most of the parameters are completely >> unknown and so whatever value you choose is a complete guess. >> >> Here's my w.a.g. at parameter values (vs. yours in parentheses): >> >> N* represents the number of stars in the Milky Way Galaxy >> N* = 500 billion (100 billion) >> (Btw, that's American billion, not British billion). The actual >> number of stars in the Milky Way is certainly at least 200 billion, >> and could be over a trillion. >> >> fp is the fraction of stars that have planets around them >> fp = 50% (60%) >> >> ne is the number of planets per star that are capable of sustaining life >> ne = 0.1 (0.33) >> >> fl is the fraction of planets in ne where life evolves >> fl = 20% (10%) >> >> fi is the fraction of fl where intelligent life evolves fi = 1% (5%) >> >> fc is the fraction of fi that communicate >> fc = 5% (10%) >> >> fL is fraction of the planet's life during which the communicating >> civilizations live. >> L = 5000 years (L = 1000 years) >> >> You didn't indicate the average lifetime of the planet, but reverse >> engineering your answers suggests that you assumed 10 billion years >> (roughly the earth's expected lifetime). I guess planetary lifetime >> is intimately tied to stellar lifetime, which of course varies a >> great deal depending on star type. Since the majority of stars in >> the Milky Way are red dwarfs, I would heavily weight stellar (and >> thus planetary) lifetime toward the red dwarf lifetime -- around >> 100 billion years. So I'll say 50 billion years. So you and I still >> end up with the same fraction (5000/50 billion vs. 1000/10 billion). >> fL = 1E-7 (fL = 1E-7) >> >> N = 0.25 (N = 1) >> >> So we're within an order of magnitude of each other. The main factor >> affecting the outcome is the lifetime of a communicating civilization. >> Suppose that once a civilization becomes advanced enough to communicate, >> it doesn't die until its star does? Then fL could be a million times >> greater... >> >> --Rob >> > > ______________________________________________ > Meteorite-list mailing list > Meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com > http://six.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list Received on Wed 01 Feb 2006 11:27:47 PM PST |
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