[meteorite-list] OT: Death fears vs. probability

From: Matson, Robert <ROBERT.D.MATSON_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Fri Sep 2 15:22:55 2005
Message-ID: <BE076B8CCE4CFE4D9598230D888B2ADF9383D8_at_0005-its-exs01.mail.saic.com>

Sterling makes some excellent points about the psychological
impact of tragic deaths attributed to various flavors of
Mother Nature flexing her muscles. When it comes to fear and
risk, humans can be very irrational. They worry about tornadoes,
hurricanes, volcanoes, supervolcanoes, tsunamis, global warming,
airplane crashes, lightning, shark attacks and bear attacks, not
to mention whatever the latest fear of the week might be (e.g.
anthrax, dirty bombs, West Nile virus, Ebola).

The common factor in all of these fears is that the probability
of dying from any one of them is practically zero. In fact, if
you add up all the probabilities of dying from each of these, the
chances are still next to zero. But this is what people worry
about because it's reported each and every day on their TV sets.
They think nothing of getting in their cars each day and driving
to and from work (perhaps smoking a cigarette or wolfing down a
supersize meal from their favorite fast-food joint as they do so.)
When 2000 people die from a hurricane-caused flood, that's news.
But 42,000+ people dying in automobile accidents ANNUALLY in
the U.S. alone? No one cares. No one is suggesting that we ban
automobiles. But if there were 42,000 deaths a year from shark
attacks, it would be a different story.

Here's a list of some selected average annual deaths for the
U.S.:

Shark Attack 1
Roller Skates 10
Dog Bites 20
Avalanche 20-25
Mud/Landslide 25-50
Skydiving 30
Skiing 34
Hurricane (1940-1981 avg.) 47
Bee/wasp stings 50
Personal Watercraft 54
Lightning '95 89
Chickenpox 90
Needle Sticks 100
Fire Ants 100
Flood 40-81 109
Tornado 40-81 128
Police Officers 2000 151
Lightning 1940-1981 188
Airline 200
Car Deer Collisions 211
Campylobacter(chicken) 200-1000
IllImm Mex-US Border '97 300
Childbirth 302
CJD brain disease 300-400
Heat related illness 318 Newsweek 8/13/01
Struck by trains 1999 530
CO Poisoning 594
General Aviation 600
Recreational Boating 1996 714
Bicycle 1995 800
Water borne disease 1,200
CO Poisoning 1,500
Rec Boating 1973 1,754
Motorcycle 2,500
Car Phone 2002 Harvard 2,500
Subcompact cars NHTSA 2-3,000
EPA Second Hand Smoke 3,000
Fire 4,500
Drowning 4,621
Teen car accidents 5,500
Pedestrian accidents 6,000
Occupational Injuries 6,200
Adverse Drug Reactions 7,000
Food Illness 9,000
Skin Cancers 9,733
Bladder Cancer 11,700
Falls 12,662
Shooting Murder 15,456
Diet related Cancer 16,000
Alcohol Driving 17,126
Influenza 20,000
AIDS 20,000
Radon (EPA high) 20,000
Leukemia 21,000
Suicide 1994 31,142
Prostate Cancer 40,000
Breast Cancer 44,560
Motor Vehicle 50,000
Leukemia & Related 56,000
Colon Cancer 60,000
Medical Mistakes 98,000
Alcohol Related 100,000
Adverse Drug Reactions 106,000 JAMA '98
Trauma 125,000
Medical Negligence est 150,000
Lung Cancer 158,700
Diabetes related 169,000
Influenza/pneumonia 200,000
Obesity 300,000
Tobacco related 500,000
Cancer 500,000
Diseases of heart 733,834
Received on Fri 02 Sep 2005 03:21:30 PM PDT