[meteorite-list] Asteroid 'to hit us on March 16, 2880'

From: Jeff Kuyken <jeff_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Mon Mar 21 13:24:57 2005
Message-ID: <00fb01c529c7$3a6eae50$b82436cb_at_mandin4f89ypwu>

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Science/Asteroid-to-hit-us-on-March-16-2880/2005/
03/15/1110649203107.html

Sydney Morning Herald
Asteroid 'to hit us on March 16, 2880'
By Lisa Murray and Richard Macey
March 16, 2005

The world will be bracing itself for a collision with a kilometre-wide
asteroid exactly 875 years from today.

There is a 1-in-300 chance of a direct hit, better odds than having the same
birthday as your best friend. And it is expected to come closer to Earth
than any other object of its size. If it does hit, it will obliterate a land
mass the size of Britain or Japan and kill about 60 million people.

Bill McGuire, an expert in natural catastrophes, uses the asteroid example
to get people's attention. But as the head of the Benfield Hazard Research
Centre at the University College London, he is more concerned about events
that could take place within 70 years. Professor McGuire told a reinsurance
conference in Sydney yesterday that there was a 35 per cent chance of an
earthquake of similar size and impact of the great Tokyo earthquake that
struck in 1923.

That earthquake cost today's equivalent of $US50 billion and killed or
injured more than 150,000 people. If it occurred today, the damages bill
would be more than $US3 trillion.

Professor McGuire is also concerned about the 35 to 70 per cent chance that
another devastating tsunami will hit somewhere in the globe in the next 70
years.

Professor McGuire is a member of the Natural Hazard Working Group set up by
the British Government in January after the Asian tsunami, which left just
under 300,000 people dead or missing. The group is looking to form a
multi-government panel to assess global threats and plan a response to them.
"The Indian Ocean countries knew they had a tsunami threat, but because it
only happens every 100 to 200 years they decided not to spend money on it.
That was a ridiculous decision."

In terms of the asteroid that was expected to hit Earth on March 16, 2880,
he said scientists would have devised a way to divert it by then.

But Professor McGuire is not alone in recognising the threat. Astronomers
Gordon Garradd and Rob McNaught at Siding Springs Observatory, near
Coonabarabran,

have discovered "near-Earth asteroids" at the rate of about one a week.

In December Mr Garradd spotted a 320-metre wide asteroid, which had one in
6250 chance of hitting the Earth by 2055, putting it at the top of the
asteroid risk for this century. If it struck Earth, the asteroid would
create a blast equal to an 8.7-megatonne nuclear bomb.

Mr Garradd suspects the biggest threat may come from much smaller asteroids.

A meteorite or asteroid 50-metres wide fell over Siberia in 1908, flattening
2000 square kilometres of forest. "I am sure 50-metre objects pass closer
than the moon many times a year. Most pass by unseen," Mr Garradd said.
Received on Tue 15 Mar 2005 08:26:46 PM PST