[meteorite-list] An Asteroid Headed Our Way (2004 MN4 -99942Apophis)

From: Dawn & Gerald Flaherty <grf2_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Mon Jul 25 22:21:06 2005
Message-ID: <00ed01c59188$a2684790$6502a8c0_at_GerryLaptop>

Hey Tom, we're part and parcel of what "Mother Nature's" conjured up, so why
not do her bidding. The mind's and it's technology would be a waste of
millions if not billions of years of evolution. Jerry
----- Original Message -----
From: "Tom Knudson" <peregrineflier_at_npgcable.com>
To: "Meteorite Mailing List" <meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Sent: Monday, July 25, 2005 7:27 PM
Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] An Asteroid Headed Our Way (2004
MN4 -99942Apophis)


> Hi List,
> I have to ask, is it right to mess with "mother nature"? From the
beginning
> of time cosmic events have been part of nature. If "mother nature"
thinks
> it's time for mankind to end, then do we have the right to stop it?
> Natural disasters are part of life, we will never stop earthquakes,
> tornados, tidal waves, hurricanes or volcano's, because we can not, should
> we stop asteroids just because we can? I say, let nature take it's coarse!
> : ) Heck, if it were not for asteroids, we would be watching out for
> T-rex's when ever we went out to the store for milk! Mother nature knows
> what she's doing, let her do her thing! Any women right activists out
there
> to give an opinion on this?
> Thanks, Tom
> peregrineflier <><
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ron Baalke" <baalke_at_zagami.jpl.nasa.gov>
> To: "Meteorite Mailing List" <meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com>
> Sent: Monday, July 25, 2005 4:05 PM
> Subject: [meteorite-list] An Asteroid Headed Our Way (2004 MN4 -
> 99942Apophis)
>
>
> >
> >
> > http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0726/p01s04-stss.html
> >
> > An asteroid, headed our way
> > By Peter N. Spotts
> > The Christian Science Monitor
> > July 26, 2005
> >
> > Humans live in a vast solar system where 2,000 feet seems a razor-thin
> > distance.
> >
> > Yet it's just wide enough to trigger concerns that an asteroid due to
> > buzz Earth on April 13, 2029 may shift its orbit enough to return and
> > strike the planet seven years later.
> >
> > The concern: Within the object's range of possible fly-by distances lie
> > a handful of gravitational "sweet spots," areas some 2,000 feet across
> > that are also known as keyholes.
> >
> > The physics may sound complex, but the potential ramifications are plain
> > enough. If the asteroid passes through the most probable keyhole, its
> > new orbit would send it slamming into Earth in 2036. It's unclear to
> > some experts whether ground-based observatories alone will be able to
> > provide enough accurate information in time to mount a mission to divert
> > the asteroid, if that becomes necessary.
> >
> > So NASA researchers have begun considering whether the US needs to tag
> > the asteroid, known as 99942 Apophis, with a radio beacon before 2013.
> >
> > Timing is everything, astronomers say. If officials attempt to divert
> > the asteroid before 2029, they need to nudge the space rock's position
> > by roughly half a mile - something well within the range of existing
> > technology. After 2029, they would need to shove the asteroid by a
> > distance as least as large as Earth's diameter. That feat would tax
> > humanity's current capabilities.
> >
> > NASA's review of the issue was triggered by a letter from the B612
> > Foundation. The foundation's handful of specialists hope to demonstrate
> > controlled asteroid-diversion techniques by 2015.
> >
> > Last Wednesday, representatives from the foundation met with colleagues
> > at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) to review the issue. The
> > foundation's letter marks the first time specialists in the
> > asteroid-hazard field have called for a scouting mission to assess such
> > a threat.
> >
> > "We understand the risk from this object, and while it's small, it's not
> > zero," says David Morrison, the senior scientist at NASA's Astrobiology
> > Institute at the Ames Research Center at Moffett Field, Calif.
> >
> > The call for a reconnaissance mission also illustrates how far the field
> > of asteroid-hazard assessment has come.
> >
> > "Ten years ago, we would have been blissfully ignorant," says Donald
> > Yeomans, who heads NASA's near-Earth object project at JPL. Today, at
> > least five programs worldwide are hunting down near-Earth objects. NASA
> > is well on its way toward achieving its goal of cataloging 90 percent of
> > the near-Earth objects larger than 0.6 miles across by 2008. And it is
> > devising ways to ensure that information about potential hazards reaches
> > top decisionmakers throughout the government.
> >
> > Based on available data, astronomers give Apophis - a 1,000-foot wide
> > chunk of space debris - a 1-in-15,000 chance of a 2036 strike. Yet if
> > the asteroid hits, they add, damage to infrastructure alone could exceed
> > $400 billion. When the possibility of the asteroid passing through two
> > other keyholes is taken into account, the combined chance of the
> > asteroid hitting the planet shifts to 1 in 10,000, notes Clark Chapman,
> > a senior scientist with the Southwest Research Institute in Boulder,
Colo.
> >
> > "A frequent flier probably would not want to board an airliner if
> > there's a 1-in-10,000 chance it's going to crash," he says.
> >
> > The asteroid in question was discovered last June. Initially, it looked
> > as though it might strike Earth in 2029. But additional observations
> > eliminated that possibility. Instead the asteroid will come within
> > 22,600 miles of Earth - just inside the altitude where major
> > communications satellites orbit. The asteroid will be visible to the
> > naked eye in the night skies over Europe and western Africa, where it
> > will appear a bit dimmer than the North Star.
> >
> > But this estimated distance carries an uncertainty that spans several
> > thousand miles either side of its expected path - a region of space that
> > includes three gravitational keyholes.
> >
> > JPL's analysis will look at several factors. One involves estimating
> > whether additional ground observations will be sufficient to resolve the
> > question of whether the asteroid will pass through one of the keyholes.
> > The asteroid belongs to a class known as Atens, which orbit the sun in
> > less than a year and pass through Earth's orbit. Because Atens spend so
> > much of their time in the direction of the Sun, observations from Earth
> > are difficult. After next year, the next opportunity to gather data on
> > the asteroid from the ground will come in 2012-2013.
> >
> > In addition, questions remain over how long a tagging mission - and if
> > necessary a deflection mission - would take to plan and execute. If
> > missions can be mounted in six years or less, NASA could postpone a
> > decision to tag the asteroid until 2014. This would give astronomers
> > time to incorporate their latest observations as they refine
> > calculations of Apophis's orbit. But if a tagging mission took seven to
> > eight years and a diversion mission took another 12 years, the case
> > grows for launching the tagging mission sooner rather than later.
> >
> > Dr. Yeomans, the head of the near-Earth-object program at JPL, says the
> > next step is to examine whether additional ground-based observations are
> > likely to solve the collision riddle in a timely fashion.
> >
> > "I can't stress this enough: The overwhelming most-likely scenario is
> > that radar and optical data this year and next or in 2012 and 2013 will
> > completely remove the impact probabilities," he says.
> >
> > "If this is the case, why are we worried now? If it's a 1-in-15,000 shot
> > and we come up a loser," there's still time to mount a tagging and a
> > deflection mission, he says.
> >
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> >
>
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Received on Mon 25 Jul 2005 10:20:42 PM PDT