[meteorite-list] Astronomers Gear Up for Historic Asteroid Pass in 2029 (99942 Apophis)

From: star-bits_at_comcast.net <star-bits_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Mon Aug 22 18:37:02 2005
Message-ID: <082220052236.2978.430A537F000C931D00000BA222058861729C9B070DD39D0E9B9C_at_comcast.net>

<"It's not gonna knock your socks off, and it certainly won't be the
brightest object in the sky, but it'll be easily observable with the
naked eye, " said Don Yeomans, manager of NASA's Near Earth Object
(NEO) Program........Yeomans said scientists should be able
to conclude with 99.8 percent accuracy whether a future impact scenario
can be ruled out and he believes we should therefore wait before
launching a mission that could cost hundreds of millions of dollars.

Until then, Yeomans says he won't be losing sleep over Apophis.

"It's an interesting object and it's raised some interesting issues, but
a worrisome threat? No," said Yeomans. "We've got plenty of time.">



    It is just this sort of cavalier attitude that makes me wish the next asteroid found will be 100% dead on target to impact earth. Until that happens bureaucrats like Yeomans will have no incentive to do anything about diverting impactors. "Hey no problem it is years away, long after I am retired." When the next impactor is discovered 6 months or 9 months or 1 year out there will be little time for anything except the finger pointing.

<"You don't have to change the course of the comet very much to miss the
keyhole if you do it a number of years in advance," said Clark Chapman,>

And the converse of that is that you don't have to change the course much to get an impact either, a bank shot off another small asteroid might do or a close approach to a larger one.

I am not paranoid and think a large impact in my lifetime is unlikely. However I am amazed that the US government can spend $2 million on a heated bus stop in Alaska, or $15-$20 Billion on farm subsidies, etc, etc and almost nothing on NEO detection and absolutely nothing on impactor diversion. SOHO just discovered its 1000th comet with 900 of them found in just the last 5 years. The longest lead time on a comet is what - 9 months? The government can't scratch it own ass in 9 months let alone mount a diversion program. I believe we have the technical capability but that the government, all governments, are totally lacking in the will to do anything. Only an imminent impact will change that. I just hope it is an asteroid 10-20 years out and not a comet 9 months out.

I will step off my soapbox now, take a deep breath and return to calm obscurity.

--
Eric Olson
ELKK Meteorites
http://www.star-bits.com

Received on Mon 22 Aug 2005 06:36:47 PM PDT