[meteorite-list] 2004 MN4 updated odds

From: Matson, Robert <ROBERT.D.MATSON_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Mon Dec 27 03:37:59 2004
Message-ID: <AF564D2B9D91D411B9FE00508BF1C86904EE62A9_at_US-Torrance.mail.saic.com>

Hi Stan and List,

Latest updated odds of impact for the 4/13/2029 encounter are
about 1 in 37 at JPL's site. (Odds haven't been updated at
NEODyS yet -- still 1 in 45 there). Mind you, these aren't
the true odds of impact, but rather a measure of our current
uncertainty in the orbit. With each passing day, the orbital
arc is extended by about 1/2 of one percent, so the cloud of
possible solutions 24.3 years from now is slowly shrinking.

--Rob
Received on Mon 27 Dec 2004 03:33:22 AM PST