[meteorite-list] Statisical Meteorite Prediction

From: mark ford <markf_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Thu Apr 22 10:28:37 2004
Message-ID: <6CE3EEEFE92F4B4085B0E086B2941B310143B7_at_s-southern01.s-southern.com>

Marcia,

This Sounds silly I know (I realize it's a more or less random process),
but I am not talking about predicting exact dates and times.

Essentially what I am saying is we come up with 'average falls/finds per
year per land area' (adjusted for number of witnesses and climate etc),
then if a country scores very low it is statistically 'due' for a fall?
I.e you express the chance of fall as a percentage?

Basically if there is a uniform distribution of falls world wide over
time, places that have had very few or even no falls ought to get more
falls in the future!? The problem comes when you have to factor in
things like the number of possible fall witnesses e.t.c


Statistically places like Park Forest shouldn't get another fall for a
good few centuries! but hey with the luck America seems to get with
falls at the moment - who knows! :)



Best Wishes,
Mark Ford




-----Original Message-----
From: Marcia Swanson [mailto:MJSOfArc_at_webtv.net]=20
Sent: 31 October 2003 01:53
To: mark ford
Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Statisical Meteorite Prediction

Dear Mark,
Do you mean like some people come up with =20
an equation, based on numerology and math concepts to find a pattern,
also using odds to pick the right horse in gambling? A common basic
pattern, if one can be found? Would be interesting, if possible.
Regards, Marcie
Received on Fri 31 Oct 2003 03:54:47 AM PST