[meteorite-list] 2002 Leonid Meteor Storm Forecast

From: David Freeman <dfreeman_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Thu Apr 22 10:06:59 2004
Message-ID: <3DA5A460.30209_at_fascination.com>

Dear Johathan and List;
Last year...predictions high, weather so so, out to my favorite site _at_
0100 (am). I see a dozen or so in about a five minute period,some
magnificent shots, it's on the beginning of the show and ..... dash
the luck, Clouds...end of show, sprinkles, light rain. It was worth the
trip but besure to pray for no clouds and clear skies.
Best leonoids,
Dave Freeman

Jonathan Gore wrote:

>Remember that these figures are very rough. The number seen varies from
>person to person. They are often inaccurate. But they do give a very good
>idea of what to expect.
>
>
>Jonathan M. Gore
>jonathan.g_at_vol.com
>astrojonathan_at_msn.com
>The Wonderful Wolfgang Mozart & Albert Einstein
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Ron Baalke" <baalke_at_zagami.jpl.nasa.gov>
>To: "Meteorite Mailing List" <meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com>
>Sent: Thursday, October 10, 2002 11:34 AM
>Subject: [meteorite-list] 2002 Leonid Meteor Storm Forecast
>
>
>|
>| http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2002/09oct_leonidsforecast.htm
>| Meteor Storm Forecast
>| NASA Science News
>| October 9, 2002
>|
>| NASA scientists have just released new predictions for the 2002 Leonid
>| meteor storm.
>|
>| A New Mexican desert. A graveyard in West Virginia. The
>| International Space Station (ISS). What do these places have in common?
>| Experts say they're good spots to watch the 2002 Leonid meteor storm,
>which
>| is expected this year on Nov. 19th.
>|
>| "We've calculated meteor rates for 58 cities around the world and for the
>| space station," says Bill Cooke of the Marshall Space Flight Center's
>Space
>| Environments Team. "People who live in North America or Europe or onboard
>| the ISS are going to see a lot of Leonids next month."
>|
>| Leonid meteor storms happen when Earth plows through clouds of dusty
>debris
>| shed by comet 55/P Tempel-Tuttle. Right now Earth is heading for two such
>| clouds. "We'll collide with both of them on Tuesday, Nov. 19th," says
>Cooke.
>| "The first cloud will cause a flurry of meteors over Europe at about 0400
>| UT. We expect sky watchers in the countryside (away from bright city
>lights)
>| to see between 500 and 1000 Leonids per hour."
>|
>| Earth will plow into the second cloud about six hours later (1030 UT or
>5:30
>| a.m. EST) and cause an even bigger outburst over North America. "Observers
>| here in the United States could see as many as 2000 per hour," he
>predicts.
>|
>| Other parts of the world will be sprinkled with Leonids, too, but nothing
>| like Europe or North America. If the predictions are correct, observers in
>| Asia, Australia, South America and much of Africa will count no more than
>a
>| few dozen bright meteors in a one-hour span.
>|
>| 2002 Leonid Meteor Storm Predictions
>| Click on the name of the city nearest your hometown. [sample]
>| U.S. Cities Around the World
>|
>| Albuquerque, Minneapolis, Aberdeen, Mexico City,
>| NM MN Scotland Mexico
>|
>| Anchorage, AK New Orleans, Amsterdam, the Moscow, Russia
>| LA Netherlands
>|
>| Atlanta, GA New York, NY Bangkok, Nairobi, Kenya
>| Thailand
>|
>| Bangor, ME Omaha, NE Beijing, China New Delhi,
>| India
>|
>| Boise, ID Philadelphia, Cairo, Egypt Paris, France
>| PA
>|
>| Boston, MA Phoenix, AZ Dublin, Perth,
>| Ireland Australia
>|
>| Chicago, IL Portland, OR Edinburgh, Reykjavik,
>| Scotland Iceland
>|
>| Rio de
>| Cleveland, OH Raleigh, NC Frankfurt, Janeiro,
>| Germany
>| Brazil
>|
>| Denver, CO Sacramento, CA Hong Kong Rome, Italy
>|
>| Detroit, MI Salt Lake Istanbul, Santiago,
>| City, UT Turkey Chile
>|
>| Honolulu, HI Seattle, WA Jakarta, São Paulo,
>| Indonesia Brazil
>|
>| Houston, TX St. Louis, MO Jerusalem, Seoul, South
>| Israel Korea
>|
>| Las Vegas, NV Washington, Johannesburg, Stockholm,
>| D.C. South Africa Sweden
>|
>| Los Angeles, London,
>| CA Wichita, KS England Tokyo, Japan
>|
>| coming soon:
>| Miami, FL . Manila, the Canadian
>| Philippines
>| cities
>|
>| Above: Bill Cooke of the NASA/MSFC Space Environments Group prepared these
>| city-by-city forecasts of Leonid activity in 2002. The colored curves
>denote
>| predictions by three teams (Asher-McNaught, Jenniskens, Lyytinen-Van
>| Flandern) who successfully forecast the 2001 storm. Note that the rates
>| (vertical axis) correspond to 15-minute intervals; also, all times
>| (horizontal axis) are local--that is, the time in the city specified.
>[more]
>|
>| Although millions of people will experience either the European outburst
>or
>| the North American outburst, only three people will see both: the crew of
>| the International Space Station.
>|
>| "The ISS will be flying over Europe during the first outburst," explains
>Rob
>| Suggs, leader of the Space Environments Team. "Then it will pass over
>North
>| America during the second outburst. Perfect timing!" Astronauts looking
>out
>| the station's windows could spot more meteors than anyone else.
>|
>| Meteor watching from the space station isn't like meteor watching from the
>| ground. On Earth we look up to see shooting stars. On the ISS they look
>| down. That's because meteoroids glow when they disintegrate in Earth's
>| atmosphere at an altitude of about 80 km. The ISS orbits Earth about 300
>km
>| higher than that, so from the point of view of an astronaut meteors appear
>| underfoot. (Astronaut Frank Culbertson described his experience watching
>the
>| 2001 Leonids from the ISS in Science_at_NASA's "Space Station Meteor
>Shower.")
>|
>| Observers on the ISS and on Earth will be equally bothered during this
>| year's shower by a glaring full Moon. "Moonlight will reduce the number of
>| Leonids seen by some factor between 2 and 5," says Cooke. "We took this
>into
>| account when we calculated our forecasts."
>|
>| Along the east coast of North America, the meteor outburst will happen
>just
>| before local dawn. "That's good," says Suggs, "because at that time of
>| night, the Moon will be low in the western sky. Try to find a dark
>observing
>| site where the Moon sets early behind tall buildings or surrounding
>hills."
>| A country graveyard, say, in one of the mountainous Appalachian states
>might
>| be an ideal spot, he laughs.
>|
>| In Europe and in western parts of North America, the Moon will be high in
>| the sky when the Leonids arrive. "That's not so good," he says. Moonlight
>| scattered from air molecules and aerosols (e.g., water droplets, dust and
>| pollution) makes the air glow and interferes with meteor watching. The
>glow
>| will be less in places where the air is dry and pollution-free. Suggs
>| recommends traveling to the desert, if possible, or to a mountain which
>| rises above the local aerosol layer. "A desert mountaintop would be the
>| perfect combination," he says.
>|
>| Indeed, that's where Suggs is going, to the Sacramento Mountains of
>southern
>| New Mexico. He's leading a team there to record the North American
>outburst
>| using image-intensified video cameras. "Our job," explains Suggs, "is to
>| improve meteoroid activity forecasts for spacecraft. Observing these
>showers
>| from Earth helps refine our models." Suggs will also have teams in Spain,
>| Alabama, the Canary Islands and Arizona, "so we'll be able to monitor both
>| peaks."
>|
>| "I'd rather watch the shower from the ISS," allows Suggs, but it could be
>| worse: New Mexico is ones of the best places on Earth to see the 2002
>| Leonids, and "it beats a graveyard any day."
>|
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>
>
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Received on Thu 10 Oct 2002 12:01:36 PM PDT