Tr: [meteorite-list] Why We Fear Ourselves More than Asteroids

From: Michel <Michel_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Thu Apr 22 10:02:32 2004
Message-ID: <000201c1d59a$5358e860$4ce4fac1_at_nwc.fr>

Just again a post that did not reach the list.

----- Message d'origine -----
De : Michel Franco <MICH-FRANCO_at_wanadoo.fr>
À : Ron Baalke <baalke_at_zagami.jpl.nasa.gov>; Meteorite Mailing List
<meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Envoyé : mardi 26 mars 2002 21:46
Objet : Re: [meteorite-list] Why We Fear Ourselves More than Asteroids


> Dear Ron and list,
>
> Thanks for your last post. I liked reading it. And I have to confess that
I
> do not have enough time to readall your posts. I like your philosophy
> of man and cosmos.
> My only fear on Earth is my death.
> What can I do.
> I can spend my time wonderng about it.
> I can do nothing risky.
> I can choose not to fly airplanes whether or not I am the pilot.
> I can protect myself against thunder.
>
> No, No. I have play cosmos.
> I will learn a lot about my origins. And meet nice people.
> I will forget my fear and just carry on looking deep in our past to
> understand our most possible future. But I will wait for the
umpredictable,
> Just because it make my life worth being lived.
>
> I just recently experienced the walk on the middle of 2 impact craters
> (Amguid and Tin Bider, in Algeria) ( just like pushing an old door opened
> by the cosmos) I warmly recommand to anyone living nearby a crater, - or
> even a bit further - to spend so time to walk it. I
> would have loved to read Ron's posts there.
>
> My two impacts.
>
> Michel FRANCO
> Caillou Noir, http://www.caillou-noir.com
> 100 Chemin des Campènes
> 74400 CHAMONIX - FRANCE
> http://www.themeteorites.com
>
> ----- Message d'origine -----
> De : Ron Baalke <baalke_at_zagami.jpl.nasa.gov>
> À : Meteorite Mailing List <meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com>
> Envoyé : mardi 26 mars 2002 18:27
> Objet : [meteorite-list] Why We Fear Ourselves More than Asteroids
>
>
> >
> >
> >
>
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solarsystem/asteroid_fears_020326-1.ht
> ml
> >
> > Why We Fear Ourselves More than Asteroids
> > By Robert Roy Britt
> > space.com
> > 26 March 2002
> >
> > In the past six months, while the world focused on the continuing threat
> of
> > global terrorism, as many as a dozen or more asteroids sneaked up on the
> > Earth and zoomed by at distances just beyond the Moon's orbit and
closer.
> > Most were never noticed. Earlier this month, astronomers did spot one.
> Four
> > days after it flew by.
> >
> > In discussing these events, experts describe a planet vulnerable to an
> > unexpected attack that could, in an instant, wipe out a city or even
> destroy
> > civilization. Some researchers go so far as to view the asteroid threat
as
> > an "international emergency situation," as Andy Smith of the Safety
> Research
> > Institute in Albuquerque New Mexico said last week.
> >
> > Yet as billions upon billions of dollars are spent to provide insurance
> > against terrorism, astronomers were foiled in a recent attempt to
> encourage
> > Australia to invest a comparatively paltry $1 million to scan the mostly
> > unsurveyed southern skies for killer space rocks.
> >
> > The scientists were practically laughed at on television by the science
> > minister of Australia who, like much of the world's public, simply does
> not
> > take the threat of asteroids seriously.
> >
> > The reason is simple: The Dread Factor is not high enough.
> >
> > Paul Slovic, author of "The Perception of Risk" (Earthscan, 2000), says
> most
> > people are far more worried over what humans and technology can do to
them
> > than they are about natural disasters. While terrorism, chemical spills
> and
> > nuclear accidents are awarded high "Dread Factor" marks by most people,
> > asteroids, earthquakes and hurricanes rate low.
> >
> > Stealth approach
> >
> > On March 8, a hunk of stone and metal about the size of an 18-story
> > building, made its closest approach to Earth, passing roughly 298,400
> miles
> > (480,200 kilometers) from the planet, just a bit farther out than the
> Moon,
> > but a little too close for comfort for most astronomers.
> >
> > But what was most disturbing was that the asteroid, later named 2002
EM7,
> > passed virtually unseen. Not until March 12, when it had moved out of
the
> > glare of the Sun and into the night sky was it seen from Earth.
> >
> > And it was not alone: On Jan. 7, an asteroid the size of three football
> > fields came within two lunar distances and was spotted only a month
> before.
> > Last October, a smaller asteroid passed by at a similar distance and was
> > detected just two days prior.
> >
> > For each nearby asteroid that is spotted, several pass entirely
unnoticed,
> > some closer to us than the Moon, scientists say. One researcher
estimates
> > that each year, 25 asteroids roughly as large as 2002 EM7 whiz by at
even
> > closer distances.
> >
> > They slip through because of limitations to technology, telescope time,
> and
> > funding.
> >
> > These close brushes illustrate a message that asteroid researchers have
> > repeatedly tried to hammer home to politicians and the public: The
number
> of
> > undiscovered asteroids far exceeds the known list, and the list needs to
> be
> > filled out before it's too late.
> >
> > Asteroid 2002 EM7 left a a pretty ominous message on its own: Only a
> > tremendously expensive new telescopes -- placed outside Earth's orbit so
> as
> > to monitor the blind spot created by the Sun -- could guarantee we won't
> > suffer an unexpected and sudden impact. There would be a flash of
> brilliant
> > light in the sky, and seconds later the world would change forever in a
> way
> > that would render Sept. 11 an insignificant memory.
> >
> > Dread Factor vs. reality of risk
> >
> > Scientists develop asteroid risk statistics by estimating the total
number
> > of objects that exist and by studying evidence of past encounters -- big
> > holes in the ground called impact craters.
> >
> > From these clues, they say your chances of death by asteroid are about
the
> > same as dying in a plane crash, roughly 1-in-20,000 during your
lifetime.
> > You're more liable to be electrocuted to death (1-in-5000 chance),
succumb
> > to skin cancer or be killed in a car crash.
> >
> > Yet asteroids pose more risk than tornadoes (1-in-60,000 chance),
> > rattlesnake bites or food poisoning.
> >
> > If Earth is hit, you could die by direct impact and vaporization. Or you
> > might be killed in an associated earthquake or volcanic eruption as the
> > planet's bell is rung like never before in recorded history. Or perhaps
> like
> > countless lesser species, you'll die a slow, agonizing death of
starvation
> > as the world's food supply dwindles in the face of reduced sunlight
caused
> > by a global debris cloud.
> >
> > Yet if you're like most people, you are not all that worried, according
to
> > sociologists and psychiatrists who study these things.
> >
> > Slovic, the author, also works at Decision Research, an organization in
> > Oregon that advises industry and government about risk. He says we do
not
> > base our fears on statistics. Instead, each of us develops our own
> personal
> > Dread Factor for various frightening scenarios based on personal
> experience,
> > knowledge and, more important, our sense of the situation.
> >
> > Emotion has replaced instinct as a major risk-assessment tool for modern
> > humans, who face myriad dangers, none of which involve sneaking up on
> woolly
> > mammoths from behind a tree.
> >
> > "It is more of a gut feeling," Slovic says. "Does it worry me? Does it
> scare
> > me? Does it make me uneasy?"
> >
> > Cars are low on most individuals' Dread Factor lists, even though the
> > average American stands about a 1-in-100 or 1-in-200 chance of dying in
an
> > automobile.
> >
> > "We don't dread cars," Slovic says. "Things that cause cancer are high
on
> > the Dread Factor."
> >
> > Scientists vs. voters
> >
> > The Dread Factor, or lack of it, can drive political funding decisions.
> >
> > The U.S. Congress apparently perceived the threat real enough to require

> > NASA to make asteroid hunting a serious business. The space agency
spends
> > $3.55 million each year searching for and studying asteroids. (Much of
> that
> > money goes to space-based research of asteroids that pose no threat.)
> >
> > Individual search programs provide much of their own institutional
> funding.
> > And amateur astronomers around the globe contribute to the effort. Not
> > everyone, however, sees an urgent need.
> >
> > The Australian Science Minister Peter McGauran, appearing on his
country's
> > 60 Minutes television program March 17, called the effort to find
> > potentially threatening asteroids "fruitless, unnecessary,
self-indulgent"
> > and promised no funds unless researchers provide a more convincing
> argument
> > for the need.
> >
> > To the consternation of many researchers, there are no telescopes below
> the
> > equator devoted to searching southern skies for asteroids. Australia cut
> > funding to one such effort in 1996.
> >
> > An ongoing online poll taken in conjunction with the televised program
> found
> > overwhelming support -- 91 percent at last count -- for reinstatement of
> the
> > funding. But these votes were cast by people who watched an animated
> > asteroid slam into Earth and listened to leading experts spout
frightening
> > statistics and detail the grim outcomes they say are only a matter of
> time.
> >
> > You and most other voters, in Australia and around the world, probably
> lean
> > more toward McGauran's sentiment. According to experts in risk
assessment
> > and fear management, McGauran's starkest statement likely reflects the
> > general public mood: "I lie awake worrying about a lot of other things.
> > Near-miss asteroids is not one of them."
> >
> > The average person tends to be much more afraid of industrial accidents,
> for
> > example.
> >
> > As with terrorism, vast sums of money are spent, as Slovic puts it, "to
> take
> > small risks of chemical and radioactive pollution and reduce them even
> > further. We spend a huge amount for every statistical life saved. On the
> > other hand, if you wanted to get people to spend money on asteroid
> > protection or earthquake mitigation, it's very difficult, even though
the
> > risk is much greater."
> >
> > Richard Taylor of the Probability Research Group, a global affiliation
of
> > researchers looking into various science topics, thinks there is a clear
> > message in the fact that nations spend billions on military defense but
> zero
> > scanning our entire Southern Hemisphere flank for asteroids:
> >
> > "We feel more at danger from man than from Nature," Taylor says.
> >
> > Not in my lifetime
> >
> > A decade ago, Slovic and some colleagues conducted a test. They provided
a
> > group of university students with information about the threat from
> beyond,
> > explaining that a giant asteroid was thought to have killed off the
> > dinosaurs, and others would surely hit the planet at statistically
> > determined intervals. Then they surveyed the students to determine how
> they
> > assessed the risk. The students recognized the threat, but chose not to
> > worry about it.
> >
> > "They're expectation was, well, it's not going to happen in my
lifetime,"
> > Slovic says.
> >
> > If astronomers were to announce an imminent collision, asteroids would
> > suddenly develop a high Dread Factor, Slovic figures. But because none
of
> us
> > has any direct experience whatsoever with deadly space rocks, "People
> don't
> > get worked up about it. There's too many things to worry about."
> >
> > Scientists find it similarly difficult to generate much public worry for
> > other potential calamities, like horrible storms, droughts and coastal
> > flooding that might result over the next century due to climate change,
> but
> > which are seen as remote in time.
> >
> > There is little chance that the complacent attitude of the public, and
of
> > some government officials, will ever elevate to the level of concern
> > maintained by asteroid experts. As Slovic says, it's common for
scientists
> > and technicians to have a different and more rational understanding of
the
> > risks involved in their area of study.
> >
> > Fear as a motivator
> >
> > Many astronomers, it must be noted, believe present asteroid search
> efforts
> > are fairly adequate, notwithstanding the lack of a southern telescope.
> With
> > time, they say, the worst threats will be rooted out, which is to say
the
> > largest asteroids. And, they argue, the odds are that if any globally
> > destructive object is found to be on a collision course with Earth,
there
> > will probably be years of warning.
> >
> > A more vocal group of astronomers and other proponents of increased
> spending
> > tend to worry about smaller asteroids that could cause regional
> devastation.
> > And they tend to make more frightening statements. Here are just a few
> that
> > have come from the mouths of respected experts just in the past 10 days:
> >
> > "If it were over a populated area, like Atlanta, it would have basically
> > flattened it," asteroid cataloguer Gareth Williams told CNN in
discussing
> > the potential of asteroid 2002 EM7.
> >
> > "We live in a cosmic shooting gallery," said Duncan Steel of Salford
> > University.
> >
> > "We're talking about a million megaton explosion," said author and
> physicist
> > Paul Davies of Macquarie University, in discussing a typical impact on
> > another recent television program. "That's a million city-bursting bombs
> all
> > going off at once."
> >
> > While such statements are often softened with the reminder that the
world
> > probably won't end tonight -- Davies said in the next breath, "I don't
> want
> > people to lie awake at night worrying about it" -- the effort is clear:
> Get
> > you and the politicians to act on this threat.
> >
> > Yet in a world remade by a single day of terrorism, fear may be doomed
as
> a
> > sales pitch, just as it was in Australia.
> >
> > Fear is not something that can necessarily be instilled by scientists.
> > Instead, it tends to be generated by whatever rears its ugly head and
> shouts
> > loudest, explains Robert Butterworth, a psychologist at International
> Trauma
> > Associates in Los Angeles. Nothing right now, globally speaking, can
> measure
> > up to the fear of terrorism and the associated potential of a nuclear
> > attack.
> >
> > I can't take it
> >
> > While there are plenty of things for a 21st Century human to worry
about,
> we
> > all have our limits.
> >
> > "In order for us not to have these things on our minds, we use a device
> > that's been maligned in last few years, which is denial and repression,"
> > Butterworth says. "We push it back, because we couldn't function if we
> > didn't."
> >
> > Asteroids, like a fear of bugs or concern over a missed appointment, can
> be
> > lost in a shuffle of frightening thoughts. Some things just aren't as
> > significant as they seemed last summer.
> >
> > Butterworth puts it this way: "If we had been walking with a limp and
all
> of
> > a sudden were shot in the stomach, the limp fades away."
> >
> > No place has been hit in the stomach like New York City. Psychologist
> Janice
> > Yamins, whose patients include victims of the terrorist attacks, says
> > residents are stunned by their own change in views, such as newfound
> support
> > for defense spending "instead of other things that won't help preserve
our
> > world."
> >
> > Where fear leaves off, anger and revenge step in.
> >
> > Natural disasters don't generate similar sea changes in philosophy.
> > Californians suffer tremendously from earthquakes every few years. They
> pick
> > up and move on. Southeast coastal residents rebuild time and again after
> > hurricanes. People there shrug off the threat. Butterworth figures an
> > asteroid impact would generate similar reactions.
> >
> > "What do we do, shake our fist at God?" he asks. "Who can we be angry
at?"
> >
> > All this psychology lends support to a notion that has already formed in
> the
> > heads of many astronomers: Their call for more funding will fall on a
> whole
> > lot of deaf ears until another asteroid makes real noise.
> >
> > The last serious impact was in 1908, when a rock about the same size as
> 2002
> > EM7 exploded above the surface of Siberia. Roughly 1,200 square miles
> (3,108
> > square kilometers) of forest were flattened in a remote region known as
> > Tunguska. There were no known deaths, because almost no one lived there.
> >
> > The odds of a similar event, which could easily destroy a large city or
a
> > small state with miles of extra destruction to boot, are about 1-in-20
> over
> > the next 50 years.
> >
> > Knowledge and false alarms
> >
> > In the past decade, about 500 very large space rocks have been found to
> > wander near the space shared by Earth's orbit. These so-called Near
Earth
> > Asteroids, all larger than 1 kilometer (0.6 miles), represent about half
> the
> > expected total. Millions of smaller asteroids are almost entirely
> > uncatalogued.
> >
> > The larger rocks are the ones many scientists fear most. If one hit
Earth,
> > civilization would be pushed to the brink and perhaps beyond. Deaths
could
> > easily be counted in millions, possibly even billions. Many species of
> > plants and animals would disappear.
> >
> > As more asteroids are discovered and publicized, public awareness of the
> > threat grows. But the information is not always accurate.
> >
> > In a couple of high-profile cases, most prominently four years ago with
an
> > asteroid called 1997 XF11, the public was warned of potentially
> devastating
> > impacts before further calculations showed the newly found rocks to be
no
> > threat at all.
> >
> > Worse, late-night radio programs and various web sites spout all sorts
of
> > unscientific claims of impending asteroid doom, reports that spread like
> > tsunami radiating outward from an ocean impact. Any reporter who covers
> the
> > subject has gotten more than a few frantic e-mails from concerned
citizens
> > who heard this or that and were worried about the planet-destroyer
coming
> > next June, or whenever.
> >
> > Movies like Armageddon only enhance "wild inaccuracies" in some minds,
> says
> > Taylor of the Probability Research Group.
> >
> > All of this -- the fact, the fiction, the unfounded fears and the
genuine
> > threats that some people don't fear at all -- create a gulf of apathy
and
> > misunderstanding that may well prevent asteroid experts from convincing
> you
> > to see the world as they see it.
> >
> > Several dozen professional astronomers, meanwhile, maintain a nightly
> vigil
> > in the Northern Hemisphere, scanning immense and dark skies for tiny
> points
> > of light, then struggling to observe often minor movements against the
> > background of stars in order to determine a trajectory, an ultimate
> > destination.
> >
> > Always on their minds: Will this one hit Earth?
> >
> > "It isn't a matter of if one of these things is going to hit the Earth,"
> > said Duncan Steel on the 60 Minutes broadcast. "It's just a matter of
> when.
> > Either we can expect 23 years warning or six or seven seconds."
> >
> > For those in the know, the asteroid Dread Factor is off the charts.
> >
> > ______________________________________________
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> > Meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com
> > http://www.pairlist.net/mailman/listinfo/meteorite-list
>
>
Received on Wed 27 Mar 2002 09:11:07 AM PST