[meteorite-list] Astronomers Survey Sky For Big Asteroids

From: George N. <treasurehunter_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Thu Apr 22 09:55:46 2004
Message-ID: <002901c19d40$06a92260$1885f718_at_tvc.chartermi.net>

Hi Dave and Others,

You are exactly right. It is a guess. I suspect that some of the factors
incorporated into the equation would be:

Land to water ratio,
Average estimated size of known craters and impacts,
Average population to surface area of planet ratio,
Models of historical data(extinction theory etc.),
Estimated time between impacts average,
And of course location of meteorite hunting groups with super high power
rare earth magnets, which would certainly increase the risk of drawing in an
iron asteroid!

I think that they probably see it as the closest possible estimate since it
is likely based on a series of smaller estimates.

George Nicula

----- Original Message -----
From: "David Freeman" <dfreeman_at_fascination.com>
To: "George N." <treasurehunter_at_chartermi.net>
Cc: <Sharkkb8_at_aol.com>; <jim@catchafallingstar.com>;
<meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Sent: Monday, January 14, 2002 2:59 PM
Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Astronomers Survey Sky For Big Asteroids


> Dear Survey says:
> If no people have ever been killed from an impact then.....isn't it all
> just a guess? Odds of something falling I can see as it is time related
> but of killing people, that would be odd since landing in siberia would
> be different then Muskogee...where did someone come up with that
> anyways? I don't see how they can figure odds unless they took total
> earth population, and total surface area and time between events, surely
> would be easier to find a needle in a haystack than come up with any
> competent and realistic odds.
> Davescarednot
>
> George N. wrote:
>
> > They are taking into account that at least several thousand people
> > will likely be killed in one instance. That effects the odds
> > greatly. Example: if an asteroid struck today and killed 12,500
> > people. Then the odds would be accurate.
> >
> >
> >
> > George Nicula
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> >
> > From:Sharkkb8_at_aol.com <mailto:Sharkkb8@aol.com>
> >
> > To: jim_at_catchafallingstar.com <mailto:jim@catchafallingstar.com> ;
> > meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com
> > <mailto:meteorite-list_at_meteoritecentral.com>
> >
> > Sent: Monday, January 14, 2002 3:29 PM
> >
> > Subject: Re: [meteorite-list] Astronomers Survey Sky For Big
Asteroids
> >
> >
> >
> >> Your answer is at the bottom of the following webpage.
> >>
> >> http://geowww.gcn.ou.edu/~jahern/impacts/
> >> <http://geowww.gcn.ou.edu/%7Ejahern/impacts/>
> >
> >
> >
> > If the odds of dying of an asteroid/comet strike are 20,000 to 1,
> > wouldn't that mean that 12,500 people (out of the USA's
> > 250,000,000) figure to die that way?
> >
> > There is something wrong with this (surely), what is it?
> >
> > Gregory
> >
>
>
Received on Mon 14 Jan 2002 04:11:24 PM PST