[meteorite-list] Re: Delete if desired: Legal BS....Sorry

From: drtanuki <drtanuki_at_meteoritecentral.com>
Date: Thu Apr 22 09:54:03 2004
Message-ID: <3C65DC1A.6BF6A53B_at_tkc.att.ne.jp>

Sorry for the following legal BS; but I have been advised. This is to
inform that, MIE (c 2002) and (Multiple Impact Event (c 2002)) and their
usage (fair usage applies) are copywritten material, under US and
International Treaty; and therefore cannot be used without the prior
written expressed consent of the sole legal owner, Dirk D. Ross.

Dirk D. Ross, 2-24-3-1006 Nukui, Nerima-ku, Tokyo, Japan 176-0021

drtanuki wrote:

> List Members:
> Mark my words and write be back in ten if I was wrong. In the next
> ten years we will witness a MIE (Multiple Impact Event), unlike seen my
> man for some time. My statement is based on research done by
> observation.
> Dirk Ross....."The Chicken Little"........ in Tokyo
>
> Ron Baalke wrote:
>
> > http://web99.arc.nasa.gov/impact/news_detail.cfm?ID=109
> >
> > Progress in the Spaceguard Survey
> > Alan Harris (JPL) and David Morrison (NASA Ames)
> > February 2, 2002
> >
> > We have now found 587 of the larger (1 km) NEAs. Will we make the
> > goal of 90% completeness by 2008?
> >
> > The Spaceguard Goal as adopted by NASA is to discover 90% of the near
> > Earth asteroids (NEAs) larger than 1 km (actually, brighter than
> > absolute magnitude H=18) before the end of 2008. This is a summary of
> > progress through the end of 2001, with more than 100 new discoveries
> > of NEAs brighter than H=18, bringing the total to 587 as of January
> > 28, 2002. The total number of known NEAs of all sizes is 1743.
> >
> > The following table shows the discoveries of total NEAs and of NEAs
> > brighter than H=18, listed by month and observing team during 2001.
> > The months are actually lunations, full moon to full moon, starting
> > with the full moon of January 9, 2001, and ending with the full moon
> > of January 28, 2002, a total of 13 "months." The observing groups
> > listed are LINEAR (MIT), LONEOS (Lowell Observatory), NEAT-Maui
> > (JPL), NEAT-Palomar (JPL; new), Spacewatch-I (Kitt Peak), and
> > Spacewatch-II (Kitt Peak; new)
> >
> > LINEAR LONEOS NEAT-M NEAT-P SW-I SW-II Other | Total
> >
> > Jan 22 6 1 0 3 0 - - 1 0 - - 0 0 | 27 6
> > Feb 19 6 1 0 2 1 - - 1 0 - - 0 0 | 23 7
> > Mar 15 5 8 0 4 1 - - 1 0 - - 2 0 | 30 7
> > Apr 12 3 6 1 2 1 - - 2 0 - - 0 0 | 22 5
> > May 11 3 4 2 7 3 5 1 2 0 - - 0 0 | 29 9
> > Jun 9 4 2 1 0 0 5 3 0 0 - - 0 0 | 16 8
> > Jul 1 0 5 2 3 0 13 4 0 0 - - 0 0 | 22 6
> > Aug 18 4 3 2 7 3 12 1 3 0 - - 0 0 | 43 10
> > Sep 47 17 10 2 0 0 7 2 1 0 - - 0 0 | 65 21
> > Oct 35 4 0 0 3 0 11 1 4 0 2 0 0 0 | 55 5
> > Nov 35 7 3 1 1 0 2 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 | 45 8
> > Dec 45 8 2 0 2 1 4 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 | 56 11
> > Jan 48 13 1 1 4 0 4 1 3 0 0 0 1 1 | 61 16
> > ------------------------------------------------------------|--------
> > Tot 317 80 46 13 38 10 63 14 20 0 5 0 5 2 | 494 119
> >
> > The next table groups the discoveries into 6-month intervals for
> > easier comparison with earlier years. It also drops the final
> > lunation:
> >
> > LINEAR LONEOS NEAT SpacewatchOther Total
> >
> > 01-1 88 27 22 4 28 10 7 0 2 0 147 41
> >
> > 01-2 181 40 23 7 65 13 15 0 2 0 286 60
> > -----------------------------------------------------------------
> > Tot 269 67 45 11 93 23 22 0 4 0 433 101
> >
> > It is particularly notable how much LINEAR's discovery rate picked up
> > in the second half of the year. A preliminary look at discovery
> > magnitudes suggests this is largely due to reaching to fainter
> > magnitude, around visual magnitude V=19.5, while previously the limit
> > was near V=19.0. Both NEAT systems are getting down to around V=19.5
> > too. It is this improvement in the detection limits that keeps the
> > discovery rate so high; without such improvements we would expect a
> > drop-off as the survey becomes more complete. The average discovery
> > rate for 2002 is 9 per lunation, approximately the same as in 2000
> > (10 per lunation)
> >
> > We can also ask how long it will take at the present discovery rate
> > to find 90% of the NEAs brighter than H=18. The present total number
> > of discovered NEAs of H </= 18.0 is 587. Taking a nominal value of
> > 1000 as the total population, that implies that the survey is now 59%
> > complete. It appears that, especially if the discovery efficiency of
> > the last 5 months can be sustained, the Spaceguard Survey may be on
> > track for 90% completion by 2008 or 2009. However, this statement is
> > dependant on what number is assumed for the total population, since
> > the discovery rate needed to finish the job depends on the number of
> > objects remaining to be discovered. For example, if the total
> > population is only 800 (we consider this impossibly low, but is still
> > 100 above one of the estimates of two years ago), then 90% completion
> > requires discovering only 133 more objects. For an assumed population
> > of 1000, we need 313 more discoveries to reach 90%, and for an
> > assumed population of 1200, an additional 493 discoveries are needed
> > to achieve 90% completion.
> >
> > We may be still a little shy of the mark for 90% completion by the
> > end of 2008, but not seriously so for the nominal population of 1000.
> > If there are as many as 1200, then we will have to go deeper (perhaps
> > beyond magnitude V=20) to reach the goal in 2008. Or we would need to
> > increase sky coverage, for example by adding a telescope at a
> > Southern Hemisphere site whose long winter nights (hopefully clear)
> > would complement the short and often cloudy summer nights in the US
> > Southwest.
> >
> > Detailed modeling of the survey and analysis of the discovery
> > statistics is in preparation by Harris and will be published later in
> > the professional literature.
> >
> > ______________________________________________
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>
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Received on Sat 09 Feb 2002 09:34:03 PM PST