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Torino Scale Encore

Astronomy , November 1999, p. 28, Astro News, Risk Assessment:

Spin Control for Asteroid Hazards

The next time a newly discovered asteroid appears to be heading toward
Earth, astronomers hope to avoid scaring the public if there actually is
little chance of an impact. To accomplish that, Richard Binzel, an
astronomer at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has devised a
system for rating asteroid impact hazards that is modeled after the
Richter scale for earthquakes. The goal, says Binzel, is to avoid
prompting sensational news coverage of the discoveries of near-Earth
objects and "help the public determine what level of concern is
appropriate."
The effort at astronomical spin control comes after several examples
over the years of asteroid-impact fears that subsequently proved to be
overblown. A recent example involved the rogue asteroid 1997 XF11, which
some astronomers initially thought would come dangerously close to Earth
in 2028, possibly even hitting the planet. Worldwide concern arose after
astronomer Brian Marsden, director of the International Astronomical
Union's (IAU) Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams and the Minor
Planet Center, issued a scientific bulletin and press release to
encourage more observations of XF11. A day after the news release,
scientists at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California,
ruled out an impact in 2028, but not before the media seized on the
mix-up. The flip-flop prompted a writer for the New York Post, a tabloid
newspaper, to pen, "You can kiss your asteroid goodbye."
Binzel's idea to assign a realistic level of concern to asteroids that
come close to Earth was adopted at a June IAU meeting in Torino, Italy.
The IAU approved using a "Torino scale" ranging from 0 (no chance of
impact) to 10 (a global catastrophe such as the impact 65 million years
ago that may have killed off the dinosaurs). Voluntary IAU guidelines
call for astronomers to review their potentially alarming calculations
with an independent review panel before making an announcement about the
risk to the public. If these steps are followed, excessive asteroid
headlines may become as rare as impacts themselves. (by Steve Nadis)

See also September 27 and September 28 for three more posts on the
Torino scale !

Regards,

Bernd

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